The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[FunkMiller]

So around 22 million according to Rth over at BOT. That would be a 20.6% drop from Tuesday. It's another good number. TLJ stays on course for 525 million before 2018.

It’s pretty clear TLJ lost a little steam due to the Christmas schedule, but I’d picking it back up now.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Where this movie is after 19 days-next tuesday is basically where it will end up. It will make some additional but tuesday is the day.

Where are you getting that from??

TFA made 19% of it's final gross after it's 19th day and R1 collected 16% of it's final haul after it's 19th day. A SW movie plays at a much higher level than other blockbusters in North America so even if TLJ goes even lower to (12-13)%, it's still going to rake in more than 80 million after Jan 2nd. That's a big deal and nothing to dismiss. Not at all.

As far as legs thru weak January if you guessed the number of movies that were supposed rack up big box office thru weak periods there would not be many.

I mean just look at this year. After unimpressive 2nd and 3rd weekends, SM:H bounced back big time and finished with a robust total. That was in big part due to a totally wasteland of an August which had 2 back to back atrocious weekends and included the LOWEST grossing weekend in Hollywood in more than 15 years. TLJ can recover a lot if it plays well over January. Whether TLJ can actually do that is something that remains to be seen but it can happen. Plus American Sniper became one of the greatest BO success stories of all time during the same month so January can surprise too.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I didn't even realize you already posted the number from Rth.

I was looking for new posts from you for updates and didn't realize that you put in the Wed. figure in a reply post.

No biggie. Was just killing two birds with one stone.

Seems like some BO sites are projecting 21.5 million for the day. The drop (22.4%) is still good and New Year can further bring a major upswing in dailies.

Yeah, I’m not going to quibble over $500k. Unless there’s a major drop today it looks like it will be a little ahead of where I was expecting it to land before the weekend. I agree that January should be a good month. Competition is light, there are plenty of schools still off the first week and it will get a bump from MLK day, too.

 

[spiderman2]

Are there any weekend projections yet? RO made about 49.6 million on its 3erde weekend and the 4 day weekend turned out to be about 65.5. TFA on the other hand did about 90.4 but that was only a regular 3 day weekend.

 

[Flemm]

I don't know, but Jumanji is doing really well. 15.2M yesterday, as compared to the 21.5 for The Last Jedi.

I would say that it is a David vs. Goliath situation, except that The Rock is a pretty big dude, so that doesn't really work

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Are there any weekend projections yet? RO made about 49.6 million on its 3rd weekend and the 4 day weekend turned out to be about 65.5. TFA on the other hand did about 90.4 but that was only a regular 3 day weekend.

I'm thinking about a 3 day weekend that goes something like this 24.5 (Fri) + 25 (Sat) + 17.5 (Sun) = 67 million.

These numbers depend on whether TLJ drops just 5% on Thursday or not tho. If TLJ drops more than 5%, then my projections will go lower.

Also I'm basing these increases/decreases on movies that came out in Dec. 2006.

Edit: An optimistic projection will look like

26.7 (Fri) + 29.4 (Sat) + 18.2 (Sun) = 74.3 million.

 

[spiderman2]

I'm thinking about a 3 day weekend that goes something like this 24.5 (Fri) + 25 (Sat) + 17.5 (Sun) = 67 million.

These numbers depend on whether TLJ drops just 5% on Thursday or not tho. If TLJ drops more than 5%, then my projections will go lower.

Also I'm basing these increases/decreases on movies that came out in Dec. 2006.

Edit: An optimistic projection will look like

26.7 (Fri) + 29.4 (Sat) + 18.2 (Sun) = 74.3 million.

Oh ok are we looking at like 540-550 by the end of Monday or something? With yesterdays numbers that puts the movie around 445 or so. A 67 million Friday-Sunday would but the movie at 512 and then you have what ever it does on Thursday and Monday.

 

[spiderman2]

So we will be hitting 900+ today looks like boxoffice mojo has updated its OS numbers from yesterday but not its USA numbers to about 870 million. With its USA numbers from yesterday it is around 891. Also I think some one was saying that its OS numbers are less then its USA numbers but it looks like that is not true now. I think it did about 26 OS yesterday so like 4.5 million or so more then its USA numbers. So should reach I think around 930-940 WW today. Today is day 14 took TFA 12 days to reach a billion. So are we looking at like sat to reach a billion? That would be day 16.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Oh ok are we looking at like 540-550 by the end of Monday or something? With yesterdays numbers that puts the movie around 445 or so. A 67 million Friday-Sunday would but the movie at 512 and then you have what ever it does on Thursday and Monday.

I have it like this [444.9+ 20.5 (Thu) +67) = 532.4 million as on 31.12.2017.

Either way, the drop this weekend will be excellent as the calendar will start favoring TLJ in the final stretch of 2017.

 

[Iceman]

The rest of the Xmas and NY period should help support it.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

With its USA numbers from yesterday it is around 891.

TLJ is at 891.8 million worldwide.

Also I think some one was saying that its OS numbers are less then its USA numbers but it looks like that is not true now. I think it did about 26 OS yesterday so like 4.5 million or so more then its USA numbers.

TLJ did 26.7 million OS on Wednesday. 5.2 million more than domestic. These are only estimates tho and the actuals may go up from estimates. The increase is understandable as theaters in most countries are closed on 25th and 26th. So 27th usually sees an uptick in sales when it foreign markets.

 

[spiderman2]

TLJ is at 891.8 million worldwide.



TLJ did 26.7 million OS on Wednesday. 5.2 million more than domestic. These are only estimates tho and the actuals may go up from estimates. The increase is understandable as theaters in most countries are closed on 25th and 26th. So 27th usually sees an uptick in sales when it foreign markets.

Oh ok right didn't no that a lot of theaters are closed in other countries on the 25 and 26 so that explains it.

 

[spiderman2]

I have it like this [444.9+ 20.5 (Thu) +67) = 532.4 million as on 31.12.2017.

Either way, the drop this weekend will be excellent as the calendar will start favoring TLJ in the final stretch of 2017.

Right and about the calendar we have new years weekend this weekend and most schools are still out next week right? So does that mean after weekend 4 the weekend of Jan 5-7 that we will have a big drop then normal starting on the 8th because schools will be back in and past the holliday weekends of xmas and new years? So I was saying 540-550 by the end of Monday. You are saying like 532.4 by the end of Sunday so then like a 18.6 new years day could get it to 550.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Right and about the calendar we have new years weekend this weekend and most schools are still out next week right?

I'm not from the US so I'm not the right person to answer this correctly but I think Winter break came later this year and as a result most schools will be out in the first week of Jan '18.

So does that mean after weekend 4 the weekend of Jan 5-7 that we will have a big drop then normal starting on the 8th because schools will be back in and past the holiday weekends of x-mas and new years?

Compared to the drop on the 3rd weekend, the 4th weekend drop might look big but I don't think TLJ will have a really hefty drop on Jan (5-7). I hafta add that TLJ will also further benefit from the very next weekend being 4 day MLK weekend [Jan. (12-15)] and most likely drop in the mid 20's.

 

[Romannen]

TLJ is at 891.8 million worldwide.

So, wasn't this movie supposed to be "divisive"?

 

[Iceman]

So, wasn't this movie supposed to be "divisive"?

Avatar is bloody divisive!

 

[InCali]

Because the numbers do keep kind of going down fells kind of the opisite of TFA in that way to.

The second weekend, but it seems to have regained its footing after a Xmas Eve weekend. I think it will "easily" be over 525M after day 17. That is a very, very solid number and one that just about ANY movie would love to have.

 

[Erzengel]

$500 puts it in the top 9 domestically.

 

[007]

Avatar is bloody divisive!

True.

That film is beautifully mundane. I can't even remember what happens in it. I remember it was nice to look at and some big smurfs were in it but cannot believe that film is the number b. O record.

Very boring film.

 

[dataSlave]

Are there any weekend projections yet? RO made about 49.6 million on its 3erde weekend and the 4 day weekend turned out to be about 65.5. TFA on the other hand did about 90.4 but that was only a regular 3 day weekend.

TLJ is tracking very close to RO now. 12/26 was $27.7 million (vs 32.1 for the same calendar day for RO). 12/27 was $21.5 mil (vs $22.5 for RO). RO's 3rd Friday take was basically the same as the prior Wednesday (12/30 and 12/28). If the calendar day tracking continues, TLJ is set to do a little over $20 million this Friday. Friday to Saturday hold should be stronger this year since NYE falls on Sunday instead of Saturday like last year. So let's say Saturday is up a bit from Friday instead of down 20% like RO.

 

[Iceman]

True.

That film is beautifully mundane. I can't even remember what happens in it. I remember it was nice to look at and some big smurfs were in it but cannot believe that film is the number b. O record.

Very boring film.

I think that and Titanic got certain people into cinemas who very rarely go. Probably the type who usually give blockbusters a miss.

 

[Flemm]

Avatar had the best kind of word-of-mouth, which is: "You must go see this in the theater."

Mostly due to the technical innovation, visual splendor, and 3D novelty factor.

That's going to be hard to repeat, and perhaps impossible to the same degree. But it wouldn't surprise me if the next one is very impressive in some of the same areas.

People mostly get irritated with 3D now because, in most cases, it doesn't add anything. But that might not be the case for Avatar 2.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

So, wasn't this movie supposed to be "divisive"?

BTDubz, Disney provided the actuals and TLJ increased to 21.85 million domestic for the day and 892.1 million world-wide.

I do think TLJ is slightly divisive or there is at-least some mixed WoM at play. Couple that with serious competition from Jumanji and calendar configuration and you'll have an unimpressive run from TLJ after the OW. TLJ will still pull in massive numbers but after that enormous OW that dropped a mere 11% from TFA I expected better holds/dailies.

A couple of things to note here

1> TFA is the biggest movie of all time in North America
2> SW sequels or middle chapters always decreases from the 1st (around 30% to be more precise)

Nao TLJ doing less than TFA is normal and dropping 30% from TFA is also the standard as per previous Saga sequels.

So if TLJ crosses 656 million at the domestic BO, that should be considered a very good result. However looking at it from the release schedule perspective (A Star Wars movie/big blockbuster movie opening in December) tells us that TLJ should at-least hit 3.0 multiplier after it's OW.

That means TLJ needs to do a bare minimum of (220.5 x 3) = 661.5 million to get to that multiplier.

So if TLJ fails to achieve 661.5 million that will be a disappointment in my book considering all the variables. So if this does happen I won't rule out the possibility of TLJ being bit divisive among the fans and even the GA.

 

[007]

Avatar had the best kind of word-of-mouth, which is: "You must go see this in the theater."

Mostly due to the technical innovation, visual splendor, and 3D novelty factor.

That's going to be hard to repeat, and perhaps impossible to the same degree. But it wouldn't surprise me if the next one is very impressive in some of the same areas.

People mostly get irritated with 3D now because, in most cases, it doesn't add anything. But that might not be the case for Avatar 2.

3d actually makes the film worse in my opinion.

 

[Iceman]

3d actually makes the film worse in my opinion.

3D in Avatar or 3D in films in general? For me it improves Avatar but makes most films worse. Hopefully that will change in the long term future when they finally get to grips with this technology. Surround sound has improved the cinematic experience and in theory I don't see why true 3D wouldn't also make films more immersive. I believe they came out with the tech way too early and also didn't commit to it. A 2D upconversion is like filming something in black and white and then using software to predict the real colours later.