The Official Box Office thread

[SLYspyder]

so how well do you guys think the movie will do? Judging from the past movies, I'd say 3 day opening will be around $100M. Overrall haul at almost $300M.

 

[deathshead2]

How many of these have there been?

 

[SLYspyder]

i checked the first two pages. (seeing as how the movie is released in 2 days) I was suprised there wasn't one so I started one.

 

[TheVileOne]

I predict a strong 4 day opening weekend. Anywhere from around $70-90 million. Maybe more, maybe less.

It will be followed by a 50% or more dropoff in the subsequent weekend. Like The Hulk, Fantastic Four, Daredevil, and numerous others.

 

[lordofthenerds]

How many of these have there been?

Hundreds.

 

[Calendar Man]

so how well do you guys think the movie will do? Judging from the past movies, I'd say 3 day opening will be around $100M. Overrall haul at almost $300M.

It won't make that much. The first one made $157 million. The last one made $214 million. This one will make around $200-$225 million I'm guessing.

 

[Iceman]

I'm expecting at least $100m over the 4 day weekend. X2 made about $85m over a 3 day weekend so $100m is roughly equivalent.

 

[Vindication]

I predict a strong 4 day opening weekend. Anywhere from around $70-90 million. Maybe more, maybe less.

It will be followed by a 50% or more dropoff in the subsequent weekend. Like The Hulk, Fantastic Four, Daredevil, and numerous others.

With the box office being so damn shady lately you never know anymore. People were expecting DaVinci to bomb immediately but I knew that wouldn't happen. Although there are still moviegoers that didn't get a chance to screen DaVinci last weekend so there will be those leftovers and that film has really become a phenomenon.

I won't be surprised if this film only pulls in 70million mainly because moviegoers have been fickle even during the holiday weekend. I will drop of massively the second weekend due to Word of Mouth.

 

[Downhere]

I think Word of Mouth is going to be good for X3...the general audience doesn't really care about the deaths of the characters and whatnot...considering this is more of an action oriented film I think this will be a very big film and play well throughout the summer. Remember, the fans make up a very small portion of the audience...just watch and see.

 

[TheVileOne]

I'm expecting at least $100m over the 4 day weekend. X2 made about $85m over a 3 day weekend so $100m is roughly equivalent.

Less people are going to the movies today then 3 years ago. Attendance is constantly going down.

Ticket prices cost more.

I say the movie will get in the $180-200 mil range.

Fantastic Four didn't even outgross the first X-men movie.

I don't think X-men 3 will outgross X-men 2.

 

[Downhere]

You have to be kidding me Vile...X3 not passing X2? Ha...X3 is going to make more than X2. What people are forgetting is that from all the reviews this is your perfect summer popcorn blockbuster...it will play very well with the general audience who could care less about if the movie is in line with the comics. They just want a good time and I think, from what I heard, X3 delivers that to those who are not diehard fanboys.

 

[FieryBalrog]

You have to be kidding me Vile...X3 not passing X2? Ha...X3 is going to make more than X2. What people are forgetting is that from all the reviews this is your perfect summer popcorn blockbuster...it will play very well with the general audience who could care less about if the movie is in line with the comics. They just want a good time and I think, from what I heard, X3 delivers that to those who are not diehard fanboys.

A perfect summer popcorn blockbuster is not what I was hoping for. I was hoping for something better, along the lines of the LOTR movies or even the first 2 X-men movies. Its not just the comic departure, its the quality of the movie itself.

Oh well. Fantastic Four was a "perfect summer popcorn blockbuster", complete with Jessica Alba and kiddie appeal. It did very mediocrely.

 

[Downhere]

A perfect summer popcorn blockbuster is not what I was hoping for. I was hoping for something better, along the lines of the LOTR movies or even the first 2 X-men movies. Its not just the comic departure, its the quality of the movie itself.

Oh well. Fantastic Four was a "perfect summer popcorn blockbuster", complete with Jessica Alba and kiddie appeal. It did very mediocrely.

Sorry, I should have been more clear...this will be a perfect summer popcorn blockbuster for the general audience. For the fans, like you and I, well we will have our problems with the film.

 

[TheVileOne]

A perfect summer popcorn blockbuster is not what I was hoping for. I was hoping for something better, along the lines of the LOTR movies or even the first 2 X-men movies. Its not just the comic departure, its the quality of the movie itself.

Oh well. Fantastic Four was a "perfect summer popcorn blockbuster", complete with Jessica Alba and kiddie appeal. It did very mediocrely.

People thought Poseidon would've been the perfect summer disaster movie. But it still tanked.

X-men 2 was the perfect summer blockbuster as far as I'm concerned. X-men 3 won't even come close.

 

[Downhere]

I don't know about that Vile...everyone on the boards for box office numbers had Poseidon pegged as a flop before a single trailer came out.

 

[phoenix_force]

i think it will do very well audience might like it more than x2 cuz of more action and effects

 

[CapBeerCino]

i think it will do very well audience might like it more than x2 cuz of more action and effects

The general audience isn't dumb. They liked the first two for a reason. Van Helsing had action and effects yet people were searching for more.

 

[Downhere]

Please do not compare X3 to Van Helsing. X3 has at least gotten positive reviews...and from the looks of it will play well with the general audience.

 

[Angamb]

http://www.superherohype.com/forums/showthread.php?t=213590&page=34

in this thread there are two bokoffice predictions.

Anyone could copy them?

 

[narrows101]

http://www.boxofficeguru.com/052406.htm

The month of May has been chock full of eye-popping four-day openings from effects-driven action films appealing to mass audiences looking to start their summer off with a bang. Four-day opening tallies in recent years include $158.4M for last year's Star Wars Episode III, $134.3M for The Matrix Reloaded, $110.2M for Star Wars Episode II, and $85.8M for The Day After Tomorrow. The Last Stand may not have the same level of anticipation as some of those blockbusters, but it does have a loyal fan following that is ready to pounce on theaters this weekend. Fox is aiming to dominate the box office this weekend opening X-Men: The Last Stand in 3,688 theaters. The super hero extravaganza might fly off with around $108M over the four-day Friday-to-Monday holiday session setting a new industry record.

 

[SLYspyder]

Fantastic Four didn't even outgross the first X-men movie.

I don't think X-men 3 will outgross X-men 2.

barely, F4 DID make more the X-Men worldwide.

 

[narrows101]

barely, F4 DID make more the X-Men worldwide.

You have to realize though:

XMen was in 2000, FF4 was 2005 - a big five-year difference. Big difference in ticket prices and amount of screens.

In 2005, FF4 made $330,000,000 on 3619 screens

In 2000, XMen made $296,000,000 on 3112 screens - less screens plus less in ticket prices

So if you use those numbers more people went to see XMen.

 

[narrows101]

http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/MovieTalkA.php?topic_id=686

$100M would be an amazing 3-day gross, but how likely is that? X2 opened on May 2nd 2003 with $85.6M and like its predecessor, it was very front loaded. In 2006 ticket prices, $86.5M open would be in the low $90s. While Memorial Day weekend will help improve Sunday's gross, there's a potential that it will dilute the 3-day total. Looking back through the past few Memorial Days, I see that the top 3-days seem to be: Shrek 2 at $72.2 and the highest open: Finding Nemo at $70.3M. The big opens were the weekend before Memorial Day weekend. Shrek 2 and The Day After Tomorrow teamed up for an incredible $140M allowing for the top 10 to reach $184M+. While I think $100M for the 4-day is a decent bet and I have said $100M was possible, looking at past Memorial Days made me feel very uncomfortable with $100M for the 3-day prediction.

With Lee's early predictions, the top 5 is over $200M so either demand will be record breaking this weekend or some of the predicted grosses will come down. For Da Vinci Code, a 25% drop seems optimistic. Last year, only Crash dropped less than 25% in the top 10. I wouldn't be surprised with a drop close to 50%. Over the Hedge will probably hold up very well, but a drop in the mid 20% seems more reasonable. There's no reason why Mission Impossible would hold up so well this weekend. I think Van Helsing and Troy are decent comparisons with MI3 and Poseidon, and they both dropped 50% Memorial Day weekend. Expect similar drops this year from the two action pics.

As for crowd reports this weekend, I don't expect as many advanced sell outs for X3 as for Da Vinci even if it does close to $100M for the 3-day. I don't have the data to prove it, but I'm guessing Da Vinci's older audience would be more likely to preorder in advance than X3's audience. X3 will probably sell out closer to showtime. As always, thanks for posting any reports.

Replies:

the presale reports on HSX seem to differ from your assertions about X3 presales. The pre-sales seem to be doing incribly well right now.

 

[SLYspyder]

You have to realize though:

XMen was in 2000, FF4 was 2005 - a big five-year difference. Big difference in ticket prices and amount of screens.

In 2005, FF4 made $330,000,000 on 3619 screens

In 2000, XMen made $296,000,000 on 3112 screens - less screens plus less in ticket prices

So if you use those numbers more people went to see XMen.

rightfully so, after all X-Men is the more popular franchise

 

[Jager X]

i have a question.how much money did blade:trinity make the opening weekend?