X3 sits on a box office tinderbox (Box Office Prediction thread)

[lordofthenerds]

I'm guessing around 80 million opening weekend. Around 200 million in the end. I think that it will be hard for this mvoie to pull in much money since its budget is 220 million and it is popoular these days for people to just wait until the DVD comes out to see a movie.

 

[Weadazoid]

Da Vinci will open huge. Bet on it. Bet on something around 70 to 80 million but it wouldn't surprise me if it hit around 90 to 100 million opening weekend. It's going to be that huge. And it will have legs.

X3 will open to around 90 million because of Memorial Weekend. But Da Vinci will take some of X3's box office that Memorial Weekend.

Between those two films, there's going to be alot of money coming in at the box office.

this is nearly impossible for Da Vinchi.... I know it has fans but with the families being split between over the Hedge and Da Vinchi.... well some will choose to simply pass and spend time with the family...



People.... Older people who read books.... tend to like to watch a movie like this at home, in thier own theater on DVD. I really think 70 is very high.... I still say upper 50 low 60's but that is only because of the the Hedge being right there with it


Da Vinchi and the hedge will get people out and into theaters... in that Summer Block Buster mode.... but neither will be the Big movie of May IMO

 

[Primal Slayer]

Well Posideon was a damn good movie, so even though it didnt do good at box office, it did good in quality which is what is important.

 

[ororoandme]

really primal? it din't get good reviews from the critics here in toronto

 

[YJ1]

X3 will definitely go big on opening weekend...remember the general population is not like us fanboys/girls..most of them don't know everything there is to know about X3...if nothing it will draw in the popcorn crowd definitely

Don't speak for all of us fanboys, I'm still jacked and I've seen way too many spoilers for my own good. I think Last Stand looks wonderful.

We shouldn't underestimate Da Vinci...the book has ahuge following...and it will attract the baby boomers and older people...that is where it will make money...and Tom Hanks is always a big draw

I would hope that Christians stay away from it in droves, however. Anyone who considers themselves a Christian of any kind should NOT pay to see Da Vinci. Yes, I know it's pure fiction but it's insulting fiction to say the least.

 

[Mar420x]

my guess is around 60 mil. but it depends if people are going 2 the movies for the 3-day wkend or how much it brings it for the midnight showings. peace.

 

[MJB]

DaVinci will do really well--between the fans of the book, and the people didn't get around to reading the book and to find out what the big deal is about it. And it looks good, I can't wait to see it either.

I think 'Over the Hedge' is going to be huge, considering how well 'Ice Age 2' and 'Madagascar' did. It will certainly give "Cars" a run for it's money.

What about the Wild?? That performed poorly. I think cars will be big, i don't know about Over the hedge. i think it'll perform fine, but i don't think it's going to big, like 200 plus million.

 

[MJB]

Well Posideon was a damn good movie, so even though it didnt do good at box office, it did good in quality which is what is important.

Not to the studio.

 

[MJB]

DaVinci was actually fairly predicitable. But it was a good book, I can't wait to see what they do with the movie.

As far as Poseidon...I just realized that movie was released this weekend. And I've seen ads for it everywhere. It was like the invisible summer movie release.

What? This movie was hardly invisiable. i saw tv spots at every turn.

 

[MJB]

The box office is plummeting because of the internet - I know people who share pirate copies, or one person buys a pirate copy and then pirates that! It's also plummeting because of the growth in 'home entertainment' - hi-tech surround sound and massive flatscreen TVs, families would rather stay in.. they wait for the DVD which costs as much as four or five cinema tickets.

The other thing that people get bored with is remakes. They want to see something new, something epic.

X3 could do well - they better add that damned firebird effect in and include a shot of that in the final trailers so we see that energy raptor when all the Phoenixy destruction is going on. X3 may do well as a movie, although some key divergences from source material have angered fans. Most of the mainstream will not be fans who know how the 'Jean removes visor' and 'Jean fights Xavier' battles should turn out. It's one thing to adapt source material, it's another thing altogether to reverse outcomes (of those two classic scenes)... but the general public won't be aware of how the original comicbook scenes played out. I also think the Phoenix saga should have been strongly tied into the cure - Phoenix is a good reason for the goverment to push for control measures, I hope that's part of the movie. The evolution theme needs to be there as well as the socio-political aspects of the cure...

Da Vinci Code will be big... because people think it's a true story and because it turns established religion on its head. My cathedral held a massive special seminar about it, inviting experts to discuss it all, and all local church people are going to the opening night.

A DVD is the price of about two movie tickets, well at least here in Fl with 9-9.50 depending on the theater. As for X3 i don't know, I'm not sold on the movie, and i hate that i keep flip flopping, but we'll have to wait and see. Maybe it's not the actors or whatever, maybe people just are tired of goiung to the movies and spending like 100 bucks to take the family. I know me and my lady can go and spend 50 bucks for the two of us, and add in people with 2 or three kids, and you spend a lot of money.

 

[TNC9852002]

Yeah, I saw quite a few Poseidon commercials these past few weeks..

At least two commercials every day that I'd turn on the TV..

Hey, does anyone know what trailers will scheduled/attached for/to X3?

-TNC

 

[TheVileOne]

After what happened with MI:3, I wouldn't overestimate the BO.

 

[TNC9852002]

I actually agree with you on that, Vile...But, there were questionably alot of other factors that held MI3 back..

A DVD is the price of about two movie tickets, well at least here in Fl with 9-9.50 depending on the theater. As for X3 i don't know, I'm not sold on the movie, and i hate that i keep flip flopping, but we'll have to wait and see. Maybe it's not the actors or whatever, maybe people just are tired of goiung to the movies and spending like 100 bucks to take the family. I know me and my lady can go and spend 50 bucks for the two of us, and add in people with 2 or three kids, and you spend a lot of money.

Yep...I just made note of that..

The DVD prices are incredibly reasonable now...You can get a brand new, 2-disc set of a movie for like $16, as opposed to going to a theater and spending $9 for a movie ticket. It's really isolating the people that enjoy watching movies when they're out in theaters and those that can benefit from waiting for the DVD...

When you have larger families or crowds, it doesn't matter how nice the theater is, how good the sound is, how comfortable the seats are, or how good the popcorn smells, you'd want convienience above anything...Sometimes that convienience ends up becoming a wait for the $1 show..

Apparently, what this movie seems to be doing so far, is making people want go to the movies and spend their money...Movies like MI3 and Poseidon, for the most part I guess, seem to be too much of what alot of people have seen already, so they're in no rush to see it I guess (i.e., The Wild)...X3 on the other hand, I'd say, is unlike anything they've seen so far this year, not to mention, unlike movies such as V for Vendetta, has a very wide audience behind it. So, I'm expecting X3 to do well ("well" as in 20m+ opening day) in it's first two weekends, and possibly longer as long as the word-of-mouth keeps consistently positive (umm..mostly).

-TNC

 

[TheVileOne]

An increasingly crappy product, and higher prices?

Why should people pay ridiculous money for BAD movies when they can stay home and watch the true classics for better value?

 

[danoyse]

What? This movie was hardly invisiable. i saw tv spots at every turn.

So did I. There's a giant billboard outside the Lincoln Tunnel I see on my way home every night, and there are ads all over the city for it.

But I couldn't find a single person who wanted to see it.

 

[WorthyStevens]

An increasingly crappy product, and higher prices?

Why should people pay ridiculous money for BAD movies when they can stay home and watch the true classics for better value?

You don't know if it's bad yet.

 

[danoyse]

Everyone is calling MI:3 a bomb, but it's #1 on Entertainment Weekly's "Must" list this week which also has an article about it's medicore box office on opening weekend.

 

[TNC9852002]

Everyone is calling MI:3 a bomb, but it's #1 on Entertainment Weekly's "Must" list this week which also has an article about it's medicore box office on opening weekend.

MI3 didn't really...bomb per se...It's just that it didn't/won't make as much money as alot of people were expecting..

-TNC

 

[danoyse]

MI3 didn't really...bomb per se...It's just that it didn't/won't make as much money as alot of people were expecting..

-TNC

And it wasn't a bad movie. I enjoyed it a lot more than I thought I would. Although I think that was because of JJ Abrams, and not Tom Cruise.

 

[MJB]

I'm guessing around 80 million opening weekend. Around 200 million in the end. I think that it will be hard for this mvoie to pull in much money since its budget is 220 million and it is popoular these days for people to just wait until the DVD comes out to see a movie.

X3's budget was around 220?? Doubtful. It'll be more then SR. If FOX spent 220 million on this movie I want to see the receipts or books. No Phoenix effects and a poorly done Colosses??

 

[TheVileOne]

You don't know if it's bad yet.

I'm referring to the current glut of movies and poor ones from the Hollywood conglomerates.

 

[WorthyStevens]

I'm referring to the current glut of movies and poor ones from the Hollywood conglomerates.

Ah ok.

I have to agree.

RV, Take the Lead, Big Momma's House 2, Madea's Family Reunion... ugh.

 

[TNC9852002]

Ah ok.

I have to agree.

RV, Take the Lead, Big Momma's House 2, Madea's Family Reunion... ugh.

Pffft...What about Akeelah and the Bee, V for Vendetta, Lucky Number Slevin, Inside Man, Eight Below, Syriana, Glory Road, King Kong...

I don't think movies are getting any worse or better than they've been for years now...I don't think it's the quality of movies that's affecting the majority of moviegoers...People have forked over plenty of cash for good movies as well as the bad ones, I'd say...(of course, what's "good" certainly extends a greater range than what could be considered "bad"...I mean, an "okay" movie isn't automatically "bad"...)

-TNC

 

[Spidey 2007]

Pffft...What about Akeelah and the Bee, V for Vendetta, Lucky Number Slevin, Inside Man, Eight Below, Syriana, Glory Road, King Kong...

I don't think movies are getting any worse or better than they've been for years now...I don't think it's the quality of movies that's affecting the majority of moviegoers...People have forked over plenty of cash for good movies as well as the bad ones, I'd say...(of course, what's "good" certainly extends a greater range than what could be considered "bad"...I mean, an "okay" movie isn't automatically "bad"...)

-TNC

 

[The Dark Shape]

3-day: $100m
4-day: $115m
Total: $235m