The Official Budget & Box Office Thread

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think Spidey(Raimi) and Iron Man numbers are very unrealistic for Superman, especially coming after Superman Returns and the aftermath of Avengers but I'm no box office guru. It's like gambling.

Only 40 films have made over 300 million domestic. That's select company. Only 83 films over 230 million.

I think if the studio makes around 240 domestic to restart a franchise, they will be very happy.

Fanboys think that it's easy to make 300mil and the box office always proves them wrong. It's incredibly hard. I'm not saying it's impossible for Superman to do it but it has so many factors working against it that I'd be shocked if it did.

 

[Marvin]

I think Spidey(Raimi) and Iron Man numbers are very unrealistic for Superman, especially coming after Superman Returns and the aftermath of Avengers but I'm no box office guru. It's like gambling.

Only 40 films have made over 300 million domestic. That's select company. Only 83 films over 230 million.

I think if the studio makes around 240 domestic to restart a franchise, they will be very happy.

Notice I wasn't talking about MOS. I said big strong films. The club is exclusive because of that very reason. To point to Captain America and that ilk is to defeat the purpose. It simply wasn't big and strong ala Iron Man.

As for MOS, I hold no reservations. I do think it will hit close to Iron Man numbers cause it has the potential to. Snyder films perform poorly for a number of reasons in my opinion.
The combo of being restricted, unknown, flawed and march releases on top of that indeed works against them(on top of that, they didn't have arguably the most in name attached. Hell, post avengers, people might actually think this will be another shared universe given Nolans name will be all over it.
This is an entirely different scenario and like someone said earlier, the only thing working against it is a film supposedly no one saw.

Fan boys may be hopeful but skeptics can be misguided as well, last summer taught a lot of people a lot of things. A more exciting and better made Superman film will do better than the inflated price of Superman Returns. I know this because Iron Man came from nothing and it did 300 on the sheer fact that it was dope.

StarTrek is interesting however, I believe it's genre affiliation hurt it though. In a way Avengers didn't have to deal with. As for XFC, I believe the marketing failed that film. It looked like a low budget reboot and new direction on something we used to love. Whereas Superman will no doubt be the opposite.

 

[Micromind]

I think if the studio makes around 240 domestic to restart a franchise, they will be very happy.

240 million domestic will be considered as success, and since Superman movies make just as much overseas so I assume that MOS will make about 240 million there.

Worldwide it will be around 480 million range or maybe even less.

 

[Showtime]

240 million domestic will be considered as success, and since Superman movies make just as much overseas so I assume that MOS will make about 240 million there.

Worldwide it will be around 480 million range or maybe even less.

That sounds about spot on. We are definitely on the same page.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

It would be a decent box office result

 

[solidsnake86]

With the negativity surrrounding DC I think they would be happy to make Superman Returns numbers as long as its well received. Although the gage of success will probably have more to do with the budget of the film.

With both of their superhero properties like SR and Green Lantern there is always some report of the budget being astronomical. Versus other films that you can tell look very expensive but the budget is listed as being very low.

 

[mclay18]

I think Spidey(Raimi) and Iron Man numbers are very unrealistic for Superman, especially coming after Superman Returns and the aftermath of Avengers but I'm no box office guru. It's like gambling.

The only way MOS would do a lot better than a $240M domestic gross is if WB did a phenomenal ad campaign and the word-of-mouth was excellent.

 

[Marvin]

The only way MOS would do a lot better than a $240M domestic gross is if WB did a phenomenal ad campaign and the word-of-mouth was excellent.

Two things I see as being a given at this point.
(their batman marketing has always been on point, and the fact that the film will be (alot) better than SR and the first modern superman on screen will have people talking about it).

The only thing that would ruin things is if Snyder and Goyer do that bomb thing they do every now and then.

 

[Superman141]

Well.... Whats gonna make more money, which on will be better? Will MOS turn things around and steal back some thunder from Ironman?

 

[Rockstar]

Uhoh MoS

http://www.superherohype.com/news/articles/170791-will-smith-returns-as-the-summer-box-office-king

 

[Black Dynamite]

Uhoh MoS

http://www.superherohype.com/news/articles/170791-will-smith-returns-as-the-summer-box-office-king

what does that have to do with mos

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Process of association. I think he's referring to Will Smith's next tentpole After Earth opens the week before The Man of Steel. I would be more concerned about Monsters University and World War Z the following weekend.

Thing is...Men In Black 3 under-performed this weekend. Not really "Uh-oh..." just yet.

 

[Project862006]

i dont see world war z doing well

how many zombie movies have actually done really well at the BO?

Dawn Of The Dead(2004) - WW - $102,356,381
28 days later - WW - $82,719,885
28 weeks later - WW - $64,238,440
Zombieland - WW - $102,391,540

the most profitable one have been Resident Evil:Afterlife

 

[KangConquers]

I'm going $185 M domestic, $275 M foreign. Basically it will perform with stiff competition the way Thor did with no immediate post-release competition.

If the movie had secured the early May spot, we'd be talking $250 M D, $400 M INT.

 

[Kal-El.9859]

I actually loved Snyder's Dawn of the Dead and Zombieland was hilarious

 

[mclay18]

If the movie had secured the early May spot, we'd be talking $250 M D, $400 M INT.

Or maybe if WB had slotted it in their reliable mid-July spot, rather than the old Batman June spot. There's still enough time for WB to switch Man of Steel for July 12th and Pacific Rim for June 14.

And April is virtually barren -- the only big competition in April 2013 is Oblivion. Have MOS open first week of April, and it could sustain itself for three weeks with little to no competition. As for people saying, "Well, final exams are during April!" -- that's what the weekends are for, folks.

 

[Boosted]

Process of association. I think he's referring to Will Smith's next tentpole After Earth opens the week before The Man of Steel. I would be more concerned about Monsters University and World War Z the following weekend.

Thing is...Men In Black 3 under-performed this weekend. Not really "Uh-oh..." just yet.

Let's not forget the "directed by m night shyamalan" screen that'll play with every after earth trailer.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Smith is a big enough name by himself I think people will look past that.

 

[Boosted]

Smith is a big enough name by himself I think people will look past that.

True, it'll only be a real threat if it's good I think

 

[sethypants]

As long as sales are better than Batman Begins, I'm good with it. But ofcourse, this has potential to do so much better.

 

[flickchick85]

If it could do just slightly better than BB's domestic numbers (say $215m) and simply match SR's overseas numbers, that would put it over $400m WW, and I think that would be a pretty damn good run for it.

 

[Llama_Shepherd]

I don't think it will make that much. I reckon Batman Begins numbers would be a godsend. But I also hope that WB are prepared for this eventuality.

 

[flickchick85]

I don't think it will make that much. I reckon Batman Begins numbers would be a godsend. But I also hope that WB are prepared for this eventuality.

Well the reason I think it has a shot at those numbers is because A.) when adjusted for inflation, BB's domestic total would be just over $240m, so even "doing slightly better" than it at $215m would actually still have much lower attendance, and B.) Green Lantern, a much more recent comparison, opened at $53m. Superman, being much more recognizable and having the names attached that MoS does, is pretty much guaranteed to open much better than that. I'm thinking at least $20m more. So if it opens to, say, $75m, then the 3x multiplier that comes with good word-of-mouth would put it at $225m domestic. I'm putting it a littler lower than that, which seems realistic (hell, BB had a 4.2x multiplier, so it just depends on what that word-of-mouth will be).

Of course, all of this prediction is based on the assumption that MoS is actually a good movie. So yeah, it's admittedly optimistic, but not unrealistically so, imo.

 

[I Am The Knight]

I really don't know how much this thing is going to make. But I am optimistic.

 

[KangConquers]

I'm actually changing my tune slightly.

I still only see this making Captain America or Thor money domestically. MOS will pay for the sins of it's predecessor, and pay for it's horrible release date. I'll go with $200 M domestic.

On the other hand, with the increase in foreign box office over the last 2-3 years, and foreign audiences infatuation with 3-D, combined with Superman being (arguably) the most recognizable Superhero in the world, we could see foreign box office of $400 M.

I see MOS being saved based on 3-D, and overseas growth. This is of course if word of mouth is excellent. If WOM is that it's a turd, then we'll see $150 M domestic, and $200 M foreign.

Unlike the B-list Green Lantern, Superman commands enough respect as a brand to make $350 M the floor for this film.