First Avenger The Official Captain America Box Office Thread!

[Bruce Malone]

It goes beyond just marketing though. Only one B-list superhero has resulted in blockbuster status and that's iron man. It got there due to the great marketing of robert downey jr. He totally sold that movie. I don't think anyone is going crazy over chris evans. He's not even at a ryan reynolds level.

And to the people arguing Cap is not B-List, newflash the kids, teens etc. are not putting up cap to the level of batman or spider-man or the x-men/wolverine. Maybe 35 years ago they did but not today.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's funny that you are almost calling the movie a failure before it is even released. Sorry but I'm going to wait for reviews and then I'm going to look at tracking (not that it means much), then I'm going predict and wait for the friday numbers. After getting the friday numbers I'm going to wait for the weekend estimates then the weekend actuals and then the weekday numbers so it can point out how well it's going to do it's second weekend.

The point is all of this doom and gloom is unfounded and Captain America is one of the most well known characters out there. That doesn't mean that his movie is going to be a hit but he is. All we have to do is wait to see if the critics like it and if they sold it to the audience.

Tobey Maguire and Christain Bale weren't as well known as Reynolds was before GL and RDJ wasn't exactly a hit maker until Iron Man came out. People knew who he was but they didn't go see his films in droves. They aren't selling this movie off of Evans back anyhow so I fail to see how his star status plays a role in this convo?

Anyway I'm not predicting 300mil for Captain America, I'm predicting between 195 to 220mil for now and will revise accordingly depending on reviews. The reviews do matter because the biggest comicbook movies have had the vast majority of critics support.

If there is an embargo on reviews and the bulk on the reviews don't get out until the thrusday it is released I'll be doom and gloom with you but until then I'm remaining optimistic.

 

[Bruce Malone]

No i'm not predicting failure i'm predicting it will fall in line with the other comic movies released this season. I.e mid level 50 million debut to roughly 150 million domestic. If that's failure to someone that is of personal opinion I suppose.

I really feel thor being the 1st super-hero movie out in an over saturated summer will keep it as the highest grossing of the comic films.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I can't argue against your point because your prediction has just as much chance of happening as mine.

Do I think that Superhero overload could hurt it? Yes and thats why I'm not firmly set on any numbers right now. And no, I wouldn't be suprised if it grossed 150mil but right now thats not my prediction for the reasons I've previously listed. 150mil total would be disappointing numbers because the movie is in 3D and those tickets cost more. That would be selling far less tickets than TIH's of the world.

 

[KangConquers]

That's what i think this movie hasn't wowed anyone everyone around here thinks this movie is going to suck except me, and the lack of publicity is definitely going to hurt this film. I Expect the box office numbers to be similar to X-men First Class
150 Domestic
180 Foreign

Total 330 Million

Um...what are you talking about?

Response to this movie has been very good around here, on other cbm sites, and in the media. Kind of putting words in everybody's mouth, aren't we?

 

[RedSkull]

Yeah not to mention no ones seen it yet

 

[Evil Twin]

I think Captain America's biggest issue is that it's going to get lost in the swamp of releases. Realistically, the box office for the weekend is likely around $190 million or less. And even with a steep drop, Harry Potter is still likely good for at least $50 million whether it breaks opening weekend records or not. Transformers still will likely be good for over $20 million. I expect Zookeeper, God help us, to do at least moderate business. Horrible Bosses seems to have good w.o.m., at least for Colin Ferrell, and comedies have performed well this summer. I don't expect Friends With Benefits to do that well, but I'd be surprised if it opened less than $15 million. Just how much of the box office pie is left for Captain America?

I think Cap will still perform well, but I don't sense any "I've got to see it" buzz outside the internet. Tracking for Cap appears to be "high 50s" and I don't see any reason to doubt it at this point. Interest level might be similar to Thor, but it's in a lot tougher spot on the calendar.

 

[KangConquers]

I think Captain America's biggest issue is that it's going to get lost in the swamp of releases. Realistically, the box office for the weekend is likely around $190 million or less. And even with a steep drop, Harry Potter is still likely good for at least $50 million whether it breaks opening weekend records or not. Transformers still will likely be good for over $20 million. I expect Zookeeper, God help us, to do at least moderate business. Horrible Bosses seems to have good w.o.m., at least for Colin Ferrell, and comedies have performed well this summer. I don't expect Friends With Benefits to do that well, but I'd be surprised if it opened less than $15 million. Just how much of the box office pie is left for Captain America?

I think Cap will still perform well, but I don't sense any "I've got to see it" buzz outside the internet. Tracking for Cap appears to be "high 50s" and I don't see any reason to doubt it at this point. Interest level might be similar to Thor, but it's in a lot tougher spot on the calendar.

Where is this tracking?

 

[Evil Twin]

The hsx.com forums.

 

[KangConquers]

They're predicting $170 M domestic total for Cap...I can live with that. I'd prefer 200 M+, but $170 will get us to a sequel.

I kind of expect this to perform like Batman Begins, in that it'll do well in the box office, but make a real killing on home video (where it isn't in direct competition with Harry Potter.) I also see the franchise making significant gains with a sequel, given Avengers likely success, and a possible first week of May 2014 release date.

 

[BatmanInc]

Internationally...I don't see this film doing spectacularly. Not a bomb, but certainly not huge either. I'm guessing internationally, a healthy 130-150 mil, with a good 150-200 mil domestically.

 

[KangConquers]

Internationally...I don't see this film doing spectacularly. Not a bomb, but certainly not huge either. I'm guessing internationally, a healthy 130-150 mil, with a good 150-200 mil domestically.

I know I'm almost alone in this opinion, but I think that Cap will do better foreign than it will domestic.

It has a really crippling domestic release date that it doesn't have in most foreign markets. I wouldn't be surprised if Cap did 170 M domestic and 200 M foreign.

 

[paulogonza]

how accurate this tracking is? it cant up with the movie proximity?

 

[Evil Twin]

Tracking isn't an exact science, but it will get you in the ballpark. Reviews and a late ad blitz can push it a bit. However tracking has been too high on the action films this summer. My guess is that the film probably is tracking weak with women.

 

[Zant]

I know I'm almost alone in this opinion, but I think that Cap will do better foreign than it will domestic.

It has a really crippling domestic release date that it doesn't have in most foreign markets. I wouldn't be surprised if Cap did 170 M domestic and 200 M foreign.

I agree,this will make more money overseas due to the growth of the international market.All the the major summer movies this year will easily make more money overseas.

 

[TheVileOne]

This movie should've been released July 4 weekend instead of the TF3D garbage.

Cap deserved it. This is the character American soldiers read about it in the trenches and foxholes.

 

[Spider-Vader]

I don't see why you guys are thinking it'll do worse Thor. I'm thinking the opposite, I think it'll be in the 230-300 range. Once again, depending on the reviews. If it truly is as good as Iron Man 1, I think people will go out to see it in droves just like Iron Man. If it gets good reviews like Thor, but nothing amazing it'll probably do numbers similar to Thor.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think tracking for it is in the high 50s, but once reviews come in and the marketing blitz comes in late, I expect those numbers to go up.

 

[Mysteryman]

high 50s is a good start at this stage.

 

[RedSkull]

Cap is AFTER Harry Potter, transformers, etc. I'm sure it will do well as it's the last blockbuster of the summer.

 

[Spideyfan93]

Cowboys & Aliens...

but that's it. Unless Rise of the Apes becomes a hit.

 

[EML420]

I think Cowboys and Aliens might bomb everytime I see the trailer in theater people laugh when the voice over guy says Cowboys and Aliens. But I am worried that the last Potter movie will go out with a huge bang. Its last movie getting hyped like crazy Im worried for Caps OW numbers.

 

[Avenger]

I think Cap will win its opening weekend, even if it's not by a huge amount.

I agree about Cowboy & Aliens, though. I like the cast and the concept, but I think it looks too goofy for the GA to embrace.

 

[Docker2.0]

I know I'm almost alone in this opinion, but I think that Cap will do better foreign than it will domestic.

It has a really crippling domestic release date that it doesn't have in most foreign markets. I wouldn't be surprised if Cap did 170 M domestic and 200 M foreign.

I actually agree. I know they are saying other countries hate the USA but I can see this movie doing better overseas than it will do here. I think your predictions are spot on as well.

 

[Superhero 101]

Um...what are you talking about?

Response to this movie has been very good around here, on other cbm sites, and in the media. Kind of putting words in everybody's mouth, aren't we?

Wasn't that the same for First Class praised by critics and in media but was a total dud in the Box Office, I am not saying Cap isn't going to flop like GL but it isn't going to be a Box Office Hit like Inception or Iron Man