The Tennis Thread - Part 2

[Hotwire]

England, Scotland and Wales make up Great Britain which is an island, so everyone from the 3 countries is British and individually English, Scottish and Welsh.

In football we compete as countries but in other sports we compete as Great Britain.

In Tennis we compete as Britain so Murray is British, however he obnoxiously objected to that citing he was Scottish despite where the money that got him his training in Spain came from. He later changed his mind, I guess once his PR people told him he'd need to be British to get the support and endorsements come Wimbledon.

Wait, you're British?

 

[Bim]

It was nice to see Murray do it today, especially after the tough loss last year. At least he now has a ton of pressure off him.

I gotta say though, something that does annoy me from both Murray and Novak is that they tend to look as if they're gonna pass out any second. These two guys are fit as heck! I know the game is tough and of course there were some pretty long rallies, but come on. Do u think they do it to throw off the opponent or something? lol I dunno, it just bothers me, cause i tend to see these two do it the most.

Very interesting how the top 10 rankings ended up now for the men starting tomorrow:
1. Djokovic (no change) 12,310 points
2. Murray (no change) 9,360 points
3. Ferrer (moved up one spot) 7,220 points
4. Nadal (moved up one spot) 6,860 points
5. Federer (lost 2 spots) 5,785 points
6. Berdych (no change) 4,865 points
7. Del Potro (moved up a spot) 4,500 points
8. Tsonga (dropped one spot) 3,480 points
9. Gasquet (no change) 3,045 points
10. Wawrinka (no change) 2,915 points

Taken from here: http://www.atpworldtour.com/rankings/singles.aspx. Boy, Roger sure lost a lot of points! Should be interesting to see what happens between Ferrer and Rafa in the coming months. Novak is still far away enough from Murray, but the gap is a bit closer. Delpo has a good chance of passing Berdych.

 

[Sakuraba]

Obviously the 4 spot is critical going into the USO. I'll get into the race for Year End No. 1 in a minute, but the 4 is most pressing at the moment.

Federer is playing Gstaad and Hamburg, a couple of clay events. I don't believe for a minute that he's doing this to relive old memories or find his form. Why would he pick two clay events, in Europe, in the summer, to find his form? Nope, he's vulturing two events to get some points. He should win both since Gstaad will have no contenders and Federer has played some of his best tennis at the old Hamburg Masters, a place where he gave Nadal one of his worst defeats. The only hiccup might be Tommy Haas in Hamburg. If he wins both events that gives him an additional 750 points, Hamburg 500 and Gstaad 250. Next he'll play Roger's Cup which will be more free points for him since he skipped it last year. Then he plays Cincinnati, one of his most successful events where he is defending champion. That's a 1,000 points he has to protect. He also losses the 400 points are whatever he earned for the Silver medal.

Okay, so he isn't going to catch Nadal unless Nadal happens to shut it down until the US Open. I can't imagine that happening, Nadal is entered for Montreal at this time. My feeling is that he might skip Montreal or Cincy, but at least play one, which should be enough to fend off a busy Federer schedule. If everything holds together, it's almost brilliant how Nadal's schedule has worked out for him. He has no points to defend on his way to London, which he's already a lock for.

Then there is Ferrer. He won't be competing in any events before Roger's Cup, and he has complained about fatigue and needing a break. He's skipped Canada for the past two years, and he might again this year if he's that tired. He had a 2nd round exit in Cincinnati. So Ferrer really has no points to defend. Ferrer has put in a lot of work this year to be in this position. He's secure as Federer would need to basically win all four events his scheduled for with Ferrer having to have another 2012 output.

So Federer might be able to catch Nadal with his loaded schedule, but he still needs Nadal to perform poorly or skip an event. Federer started the year having 12,000 points to defend and so far he's put up no fight, having lost half of it. Some of that was skipping events, a lot of it was poor results in Rotterdam, Indian Wells, Madrid, Roland Garros, and Wimbledon. It may be too late to catch up in time for the lights of New York

 

[Sakuraba]

Now there's the question of Andy Murray, World No 1? Well, it'll take the full calendar to get there.

The good news for Andy Murray is that he has a lot of points to pick due to some poor results last summer and fall. The bad news is that the cool 750 he earned via the gold medal is toast, he has 2000 points to defend in New York, and he may opt to skip minor stops on the Asian swing. Lets dive in.

Automatically Murray defaults 750 points and Djokovic concedes 270 for their Olympic results. Djokovic has 1100 point lead in the Race to London on Murray, just counting points earned in 2013. Lets go...

Murray had 2nd round exits in Canada and Cincy last year. It's hard to imagine him not replacing those low points numbers with better results in 2013. Djokovic won Canada and made the Cincy finals last year. So you would have to say that Murray is going gain some ground on Djokovic with these two tournaments. I'll say +400 to Murray.

The US Open: Murray defends 2000 championship points, Djokovic 1000 runner up points. This is both a great event for both guys, they have always been successful in Flushing Meadows. Obviously both men will likely perform well, a win for Djokovic could lock up a third straight finish as World No. 1, if Federer has a good draw he could make some magic happen. This is a good tournament for him as well, and he could be a dark horse spoiler. The crowd will surely be with him.

The fall season: Murray finished runner up in Tokyo and Shanghai, booted early in Paris, and made semis at the World Tour Finals. That's a medium haul of points. Djokovic won Shanghai, Beijing, and the World Tour Finals, along with a first round boot in Paris. That's quite a haul of points to defend, and he was fueled to produce last fall by Federer's challenge to be year end no. 1. I see Murray gaining a little ground here too, I wonder if Djokovic will be similarly motivated to get results tournament to tournament by Murray's push to be World No. 1.

So it comes down to the US Open and the World Tour Finals. If Murray wins both (the WTF is held at the O2), then he'll probably finish the year at the top of the ATP rankings. He'll get some points on Djokovic here and there, but a lot of it comes down to motivation to get that ranking and no slip ups anywhere. Should be an awesome race.

 

[Sakuraba]

Oh yeah, and Nadal. He has amassed the most points in 2013, and has no points to defend the rest of the year. If there weren't doubts about Nadal's health, he'd almost have to be the odd's on favorite to finish at #1. But the poor result at Wimbledon and apparent issues for him to get down on low balls leaves a lot of questions. It'll be interesting to see how much he actually plays. There are no clay events for him to play starting in August, it's all hardcourts from there on out.

 

[Bim]

Very nice analysis all around, Sakuraba

It's gonna be close between Nadal and Ferrer for sure, and Federer is likely to push these two guys also, so it will be interesting to see what happens, since the US Open is coming up next month. I dont think any of these guys want to be in the dreaded 5th spot lol.

As far as number one goes, i'd be surprised if Murray overtakes Djokovic to be honest. But then again, anything can happen in this game, so who knows.

 

[Sakuraba]

Federer can't be too excited that his second round opponent in Hamburg could be Daniel Brands. I think he matches up well against Brands, but that's a kinda rough draw for a sparsely populated event.

 

[Frico]

Federer is using a new racquet with a larger frame for Hamburg this week which I was thought was interesting. It was well known before that he was playing with a much smaller frame than most guys but with the slipping of his ranking it's no surprise he's switching things up.

I watched all finals of Mahut vs Hewitt, Fognini vs Kohlshrieber and Verdasco vs Berlocq.

Nicholas Mahut. Here's a guy who's only known for the longest match in history with Isner and never won at title at age 31. Now in a span of two months he's holding three. By winning the Hall of Fame championships this month in singles against Hewitt AND the doubles titles. So yeah, it was a good week. Back in the top 100 as well at #75.

Fabio Fognini. At times this guy can be brilliant and fun to watch with his bag of tricks. Other times he can be really cocky and fall victim to that and go on to lose the match. In the Stuggart final against Kohlshrieber he was a bit of both but that seriousness that many said he was lacking. And it paid off as he won his first ATP title in a good three set battle with some amazing shots from both guys. Ranking climbs to #25.

Carlos Berlocq. Another first time winner and 30 year old. Verdasco was coming into this final having had a good Wimbledon by reaching the quarters and switching racquets which according to him has added to his renewed form. He had a three set epic semi with Dimitrov prior to the final so obviously he looked like he didn't have much in the tank. And Berlocq took advantage by moving him side to side and got mostly everything Verdasco threw at him back. 6-1 in the second set with poor errors from Fernando and some good winners from Berlocq off his one-handed backhand. This final was his.

 

[Frico]

And while I was typing all that Federer just lost the first set to Brands 6-3.

Freakin Tennis Channel isn't showing it.

 

[Sakuraba]

When I first heard about it, I thought he'd be hitting a 95in, but him switching to a 98 inch frame is very interesting. Quite a departure for him. I'm not sure how much of a difference it will make. There is good and bad with it. I'd like to know how heavy he'll make it and what kind of tensions he'll play with it. He modified his Pro Staff a great deal, so I look forward to hearing more about the specs of the new racquet, and kind of judge and forecast what it will do to his game.

 

[Sakuraba]

Federer is struggling to close out matches again, needed like 11 match points between his first two matches in Hamburg. He had this issue back in the summer and fall of 2010 where he couldn't close out Monfils at the Paris Indoors or Djokovic at the USO

 

[Frico]

Fognini is playing some really great ball ATM. Best I've seen from him in awhile. As mentioned he beat Haas last week (along with winning his first title), then just did beat him again today. Into the semis against Almagro in Hamburg.

Fed up next against Mayer.

 

[Frico]

Fed dumps the second set 6-3 but breaks for 2-1 in the third.

 

[Frico]

Wow, back on serve again.

 

[Frico]

Another tough match for Fed but fun to watch.

Some nice semis tomorrow with Fed/Delbonis and Almagro/Fognini.

 

[Sakuraba]

I'll say this about his new racquet, his slice is biting really well on the dirt. His serve is still a major issue, he's got to find a way to make it a weapon again. If he serves well he can still win any match.

Hooray for him playing in a sweater vest. I thought that was really cool and a nice nod to history.

 

[Frico]

What a week for Delbonis. I bet no one saw this coming and it reminds me of when Janowicz announced himself on to the scene. Yes his match yesterday with Fed was incredibly close but he had a lot of good moments and is one wicked lefty. His ability to flatten out shots is great to see. Not to mention I had no idea he had some good hands up at net. He was with Fed the entire match.

I liked that Fed gave no excuses. Simply said Delbonis was better and it showed. Didn't blame it on the racquet but he knows he has more work to do. Delbonis is seeking his first title against Fognini who's looking for his second in less than a week.

 

[Sakuraba]

So Federer has committed to playing Brisbane next January. At time when many are wondering what he's playing for, now he's throwing himself into his work. He's never played Brisbane before, so I don't know if that would qualify under the "Farewell Tour" theories.

I know this, skipping Doha didn't really hurt him in Melbourne this year. A gutted out five set win over Tsonga and then trying to do the same against Murray was too much for a 31 year old. Skipping Doha probably helped. After all the talk and follow through on reducing his schedule in 2013 so he can practice more and rest his aging body; I'm guessing now that Federer is probably just cashing out as much as he can before he does retire and is trying to squeeze out one more Slam by switching to this new prototype Pro Staff 98.

That's the best of both worlds, he collects a million euros in appearance fees from both Hamburg and Gstaad, probably another million Aussie dollars from Brisbane, he gets matches in with his new racquet. And if he loses before the semis at the USO, he has plenty of options to play more fall events: he owes Tokyo an entree since he bailed on their tournament a few years back and he says he loves Stockholm. Who knows if he has any other records in mind, if he wants to catch Ivan Lendl's 94 wins Federer would have to play these smaller events consistently through 2016 if not longer as he declines. Connors' 109 is off limits, as it should be, given he played fifty years during an era of competing Tours.

My own thoughts on Federer is that next year might be his last year. The man has considerable ego which will lead to either his continuing to play through middling results or he retires after next year and unretires to qualify for the Rio Games. He himself stated that much after last year's Olympics, though in full disclosure, his head was probably never bigger than at that time.

Federer's come back from the dead three or four times already in his career, but this is clearly the worst year of his career. He might be suited to playing heavily in the fall during the indoor season where he is still probably the best player in that environment. Take a que from Nadal playing the South American clay swing. The more fragile these titans become, the more they need winning results as reassurance.

 

[Sakuraba]

Much like Sampras, the Federer decline is accelerated. Who would have thought that this guy, who could have very well finished World No. 1 with a little effort last year and played for the Tour Finals, would so quickly decline. He has beaten one top ten opponent all year, and that was Tsonga way back at Federer's first 2013 event down at the Australian Open. Since then he has been a disaster. He was:

-Outted at Rotterdam by Benneteau in straight sets.
-Straight-setted by Nadal at Indian Wells in a match he wasnt the least bit competitive in. He defeated Nadal at the same event last year and Nadal was still in the process of coming back from his layoff. The first we heard of the back issues resurfacing.
-lost to Berdych in the Dubai semis in a match he should have won, having held three match points. This is another trend that will carry forward.
-loses to Kei Nishikori in the third round of Madrid, another tournament he has been wildly successfully at. He played a highly erratic match, yet another negative trend for Federer.
-He makes the finals of Rome, having beaten not one player of note save the developing Jerzy Janowicz. He is blown out again by Nadal. Still, he played some his best tennis in Rome.
-At Roland Garros, his form carries over from Rome as he dispatches some qualifies and the talented Benneteau. Then there's a weird moment against Simon where Federer is cruising in the second set, trips briefly on the clay and is rattled by it. That lapse along with some inspired Simon play has Federer trailing two sets to one before he makes the comeback. He does have trouble closing the match. The QFs against Tsonga saw Federer take an early lead and then turn in one of the worst serving and returning efforts of his career. Tsonga went right through him.
-Federer wins Halle with some mild difficulty.
-Federer plays a remarkably clean match against Stakhovsky, but is unable to make any headway on his serve or make life difficult for him at net. He converts a dismal 1 of 8 break points.
-In losses to Delbonis and Brands in Hamburg and Gstaad, Federer sees a grand total of 2 break point chances.

The temptation for a lot of people is to say that Delbonis is a mini Nadal, Brands is a highly talented player that has pushed other top players, and Stakhovsky played a brilliant grass court match. That all is true, but those are matches Federer should win without exception. Those guys don't have any other top ten wins in their careers.

His serve isn't as accurate nor does it kick like it used to, his return game is positively wretched, and he can't seem to win any crucial points. Maybe the larger racquet will help his return game as servers pummel his backhand. Now he doesn't know whether he'll use the 98 on the hardcourts, which makes you wonder if he changed racquets to give himself a mental boost as he vultured a few tournaments.

Vulturing the South American clay circuit did wonders for Nadal, but this summer swing through Europe was a disaster for Federer. It only reinforces the results he has rendered this year.

 

[Sakuraba]

The possible silver lining for the Federer faithful is that he has come back from the dead before. I take you back to the summer of 2008. A lot of the mainstream sports reporters, who frankly don't watch enough tennis to offer a worthwhile opinion, pretty much were shoveling the dirt on Federer following Nadal's victory over him at Wimbledon. He had some untypical bad results to start the year, but he was still making finals and beating top ten players. Then, with all of the negative press, Federer started playing like he was in fact finished as a top player.

He went out before the medal rounds in Beijing to JAMES BLAKE. He lost in his first match at Roger's Cup to Gilles Simon, a match that he should have finished. He lost in his second match in Cincinnati against Dr. Ivo, in what was a dismal performance in his inability to change the course of that match.

Then the US Open came. He cruised into the fourth round against Igor Andreev and won in five sets. That is damn near the highlight of Andreev's career along with a clay win over Nadal. But he was playing free and letting his emotions out. He was not timid. He would go on to defeat Djokovic, a player he should have lost to the year before, and take out an overmatched Andy Murray in the final.

I'm not sure if he can pull something like that off again, but he needs to let himself go. He needs to play like a guy who has nothing to play for except for fun and for the competition. I'm not Paul Annacone or Mirka Federer or even Gavin Rossdale. I don't know how seriously these losses are being taken, but looking at Federer, I see a beaten and worried man. He has to change that attitude.

 

[Frico]

My god. Just finished Delpo vs Tomic at the Citi Open and this was Tomic's weakest performance since his match last year against Roddick at the USO. Delpo had to play twice today due to rain delay yesterday so he beat Harrison earlier and pretty much thrashed him. He showed no signs of fatigue against Tomic and was demolishing his forehand.

But Tomic, dude...I realize he's without a coach right now, but against Delpo YOU ABSOLUTELY CANNOT stand so far back on the baseline. Most know they'll get eaten alive and that's exactly what happend. His court coverage was poor tonight - I couldn't believe how many times he left the court wide open. Then there's his backhand, the wing he had most errors with tonight. It's at zero. Zero. There's no acceleration, no depth, barely any power. He had the day off yesterday yet looked wiped during the start of the second set.

His forehand and serve are without a doubt his biggest weapons. But for now, it's not enough. He's obviously one of the young up and comers and has his moments where he shows off his talents which can be great to watch. But he has these periods where he just fades away and has this "whatever" attitude. I thought he changed that mentality at the start of the year. Just poor tonight and it's a shame because at times he leveled well with Delpo in some moments of the match.

Watch out for Delpo at the USO this year btw.

Dimitrov beat Querrey pretty easily which is nice to see and possibly a popcorn match tomorrow with Haas if he beats Dodig next. Tennis Channel's coverage has been top notch today I must say.

 

[Sakuraba]

Tomic shows up for Australia and Wimbledon. That seems about it. These guys aren't growing as players the way Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray did. All of those guys became more complete players in their early 20's.

How many slices did Tomic play yesterday? What percentage did he come over the top on his backhand?

Oh man, the Roddick match last year... The McEnroe's absolutely destroyed Tomic in the booth. It was awesome.

 

[Frico]

Tomic shows up for Australia and Wimbledon. That seems about it. These guys aren't growing as players the way Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray did. All of those guys became more complete players in their early 20's.

TRUTH.

How many slices did Tomic play yesterday? What percentage did he come over the top on his backhand?

Oh man, the Roddick match last year... The McEnroe's absolutely destroyed Tomic in the booth. It was awesome.

He tried to go slice for slice against Delpo maybe in the hopes of upping his chances of hitting more forehands, but Delpo never fell for that pattern. Everytime Tomic's slice landed short or kept going for it, Delpo made him pay. It's Tomic's style really, to hang around. But last night was a no go.

Yeah I remember lol. Commentator's were a little easier on him with Delpo but still a bad showing.

Man I'm REALLY glad I got him in time for Dimitrov/Haas. It's been everything I thought it'd be. Great shot making, exciting rallies, close games. Unfortunately Grigor is getting schooled in the experience department. Granted, he's done tremendously well on holding serve and finishing off points but Haas is just doing certain things a little better.

Haas just won the match in two tough tiebreakers. So it came down to who had that little edge more and obviously it was the man who's close to being back in the top 10. But really, I felt this match was winnable for Dimitrov. Had chances - two break points, one set point. What's surprising is their last match two years ago Dimitrov won pretty easily 6-3 6-2. I *think* Haas was coming back from injury though.

Still another great showing for Dimitrov. Everytime I watch him my faith is restored in the future of tennis. Guys like him will be greatly needed.

I can't believe still to come is Delpo/Anderson and Vika also in action, oh my! Perfect ending to an already pretty awesome Friday.

 

[Frico]

Delpo takes the first set 7-6. Earlier Anderson hit a smashing serve out wide and Delpo literally just demolished it cross court.

 

[Sakuraba]

Yep, Djokovic learned to be tough, mentally and physically, plus he reworked the mechanics of his serve, Murray has added a big first serve and weaponized his forehand, Nadal grew his serve every year and became a capable net player almost over night. I just don't see any of our next generation growing. It's one thing to lose, it's another to regress. What the hell do these guys do with their time?

I have faith in Dimitrov. His conditioning has improved a great deal this year and, as you alluded to, he's going deeper in tournaments and playing more matches, gaining experience. It's pretty amazing how good he is on clay. I was hoping he'd take Bastad. Anyway, I look forward to seeing during the fall. If he can get enough returns back off his backhand side, he can really improve on his results last year.