The Wolverine The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[psylockolussus]

Hopefully it will be release there in China and hopefully it will perform like Pacific Rim.

 

[wz21]

That's good to know. Didn't realize bootlegs hurt the box office that bad there. Gotta get the China release a bit closer next time.

Does X Men have a pretty big fan base in China compared to other franchises? Looks like Wolverine did alot better then some of the Marvel solos.

It can't release a bit closer .Chinese government use this way to limit hollywood movies' box office.

 

[def28]

It can't release a bit closer .Chinese government use this way to limit hollywood movies' box office.

Bummer, so how does that work with films that get released in China closer to the America release date? Pacific Rim just lucked out?

 

[wz21]

Bummer, so how does that work with films that get released in China closer to the America release date? Pacific Rim just lucked out?

Pacific Rim is just very lucky,first,no important Chinese film released near that date.Government don't need to protect .
Second,it was off-season in China,and Pacific Rim seems not a large series movie ,it did not do well in America and European.So it's not a threaten to local movie businessmen in a long term.Pacific Rim 's director is also not well-known in China,unlike James Cameron and Nolan

 

[def28]

Pacific Rim is just very lucky,first,no important Chinese film released near that date.Government don't need to protect .
Second,it was off-season in China,and Pacific Rim seems not a large series movie ,it did not do well in America and European.So it's not a threaten to local movie businessmen in a long term.Pacific Rim 's director is also not well-known in China,unlike James Cameron and Nolan

Gotcha, thanks for the info. So do you think Days Of Future Past could have a good run in China and that Fan BingBing could add some interest?

 

[narrows101]

Updated China number:

The strong $18.17 million opening in China for the Twentieth Century Fox franchise helped push the studio's global ticket sales past $2 billion for the year.

The Wolverine 2 clawed its way to the top of the Chinese box office charts this week, taking $18.17 million (111.2 million yuan) in its first week despite bowing weeks after it originally premiered in Hong Kong and other overseas markets.

The China haul helped to push Twentieth Century Fox International's global ticket sales for 2013 past the $2 billion mark.

The movie opened in July in most other markets. Normally, a late release in China means viewers will have already accessed the film via pirate DVDs and illegal downloads, hurting ticket sales.

However, the movie's spectacular action scenes and strong performance by Hugh Jackman seem to have successfully lured the local fanboy audiences into China's cinemas. Jackman came to China for the premiere, and made a big splash in local press.

There were 2.96 million admissions for the film in the first week.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-box-office-wolverine-2-649984

Here's how Hollywood movies that are released in China works - they only allow a certain number.

Hollywood's chief lobbying arm and federal trade officials are laying the groundwork for negotiations with China that could substantially increase the number of American films allowed in the country -- a long-sought goal of the major studios.

Representatives of the Motion Picture Assn. of America and the office of the U.S. trade representative have been working on crafting a compromise in a long-running trade dispute with China, which has had a rocky history with Hollywood but has become an increasingly vital market for the media conglomerates.

China allows only about 20 foreign films into the country each year under a revenue-sharing agreement in which studios collect less than 20% of box office revenue, compared to more than twice that in the U.S. and other international markets. Under one scenario being discussed, China would expand the revenue-sharing quota to as much as 40 foreign films, said three people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because the talks are confidential.

In addition, under the proposed plan China would agree to provide greater market access to Hollywood by allowing an additional company to distribute foreign films. Currently, government-owned China Film Group controls the import of foreign movies into China.

It's not clear, however, when or even if a deal will be reached with the Chinese government. Officials with the U.S. trade representative and the MPAA declined to comment.

Newly minted MPAA Chief Executive Christopher Dodd, the former U.S. senator from Connecticut who is seeking to elevate the motion picture association’s profile in Washington, has made opening doors in China one of his top priorities since assuming the job two months ago. He plans a trip to the Shanghai International Film Festival in June in an effort to build relations with film officials there.

“You don’t want to do go in and start bellowing,’’ Dodd said in an interview with The Times in March. “You’re not going to get anywhere with that approach.”

The efforts come as pressure mounts on China to comply with a World Trade Organization ruling in 2009. In a decision hailed as big victory for the U.S. entertainment industry, the WTO ruled that China had violated international trade rules by restricting imports of foreign movies and other media.

In a recent report to the WTO, China said it disagreed with the ruling, which stemmed from a complaint the U.S. filed with the world body in 2007, but was willing to comply. “China hopes relevant WTO members understand the difficult and complicated situation China is facing during the process of implementation,” China officials said in a letter to the WTO. “China believes that this matter will be resolved properly through joint efforts and mutual cooperation,” the letter said.

However, China did not meet a March 19 deadline to comply with the ruling. With domestic ticket sales and attendance currently waning in the U.S., Hollywood sees great growth potential in China with its population of more than 1.3 billion.

China ranked No. 6 in global box office revenue last year, according to Screen Digest, making China one the fastest growing countries for ticket sales in 2010, according to a recent report from the MPAA. In a sign of China’s mounting importance to Hollywood, Canadian-based large screen company Imax Corp. recently signed a joint venture with China’s largest theater operator to open 75 theaters in the country over the next few years.

The rapid growth of the theater industry in China has made the market that much more appealing to studios, which can generate $20 million to $40 million in ticket sales per film, compared to about $1 million a decade ago. Popular movies released in China include the blockbusters “Avatar,” “Alice in Wonderland” and “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows.”
Although most would prefer to see the current quota eliminated entirely, doubling the number of foreign movies in China would be a significant advance, said Patty Mayer, an entertainment industry attorney who has worked with the MPAA. “Anything they can do to open the market would be fantastic,” Mayer said.

The country’s tight restriction on foreign films has long been a source of frustration for studio executives, who contend that it fosters rampant piracy. The U.S. trade representative recently included China among a dozen countries on its “priority watch list” for not doing enough to combat theft of intellectual property.

China has been reluctant in the past to ease its restrictions and has censored or banned content it deemed offensive, such as Martin Scorsese’s 1997 film “Kundun.”

But the rapid growth of China’s own theater industry -– with the number of screens expected to double in the next five years -- could make the government more willing to ease the restrictions, analysts say.

“What we’ve seen is the multiplexing of China,’’ said Larry Gleason, former head of distribution for MGM. “There are many more screens to fill, therefore there is more of a need for product. That suggests there is a likelihood the cap on the number of films allowed into the marketplace should increase.”

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/ent...-china-that-could-s.html#sthash.6U5mAICr.dpuf

And:

China has added 14 slots to the 20 Hollywood blockbusters they already allow into the country per year, as long as the additional films are in Imax or 3D. At the close of China vice president Xi Jinping’s recent visit to the U.S., some Chinese trade sanctions on Hollywood were lifted, which could lead to more 3D and Imax movies being greenlit. Hollywood films currently account for 40% of China’s box office, even in their small number. The new agreement now allows foreign filmmakers to keep 25% of profits, up from 13%. “The industry has been living with the numbers in terms of percentages and quotas for 20 years. It begged for a conclusion,” says Chris Dodd, chairman of the Motion Picture Association of America.

http://www.webpronews.com/beijing-drops-20-year-old-movie-quota-2012-02

 

[JP]

Wait, so then we're around 395mil WW?

 

[Antihero]

^Hopefully,Yes

 

[wz21]

Gotcha, thanks for the info. So do you think Days Of Future Past could have a good run in China and that Fan BingBing could add some interest?

America Comics don't have a big fanbase in China compared to Japanese manga because of history (though both America Comics and Japanese manga can't publish legally in China now).Not many Chinese have seen America Comics in their school age.But there are still some America Comics fanbase in China because of movies.Spiderman,batman Ironman,and maybe superman has larger fanbase than X-men in China indeed.But release date and government's restriction and propaganda determine the boxoffice.
And most Chinese audiences see superhero movies for other reasons such as the quality of movie ,directors ,acters and so on.

For Fan BingBing ,Fox hire her only for increase the possiblity of release in China .Because Chinese government likes Chinese star have international influence.So if you hire a Chinese actor. You will jave more chance in market .You can also be allowed do advertising or propaganda in China.Media may also report.
In fact many Chinese audiences don't like local stars .They think they are stupid ,uneducated,and with no temperament,they get hot only because they have relationship with powerful people.Many Chinese audiences prefer western(including Japan) actors (though they don't know many western stars) to ;ocal stars

 

[def28]

Here's how Hollywood movies that are released in China works - they only allow a certain number.

For Fan BingBing ,Fox hire her only for increase the possiblity of release in China .Because Chinese government likes Chinese star have international influence.So if you hire a Chinese actor. You will jave more chance in market .You can also be allowed do advertising or propaganda in China.Media may also report.
In fact many Chinese audiences don't like local stars .They think they are stupid ,uneducated,and with no temperament,they get hot only because they have relationship with powerful people.Many Chinese audiences prefer western(including Japan) actors (though they don't know many western stars) to ;ocal stars

Damn, had no idea so much went into releasing these films in China. Thanks for the info.

 

[Antihero]

Does DOFP have a Chinese actor?

 

[psylockolussus]

China loves Wolverine!

And this film will finally hit the $400 million mark next week!

 

[wz21]

Does DOFP have a Chinese actor?

Yes,but many Chinese don't like her.They may prefer Tao Okamoto appear in Future Past again.Most hollywood films with Chinese actors are not satisfying in Chinese moviegoers.

 

[Antihero]

Let's see how DOFP does in China.The release date will play a role in how well DOFP does.Though I am pretty certain it won't do as well as Pacific Rim.Pacific Rim did 111 million in China.That was shocker.

 

[wz21]

Let's see how DOFP does in China.The release date will play a role in how well DOFP does.Though I am pretty certain it won't do as well as Pacific Rim.Pacific Rim did 111 million in China.That was shocker.

If DOFP release about the same date as US and allowed similar advertising as IM3.It will do better than Pacific Rim

 

[ironman_rick]

Has it grosses $400M WW yet ? t:

 

[psylockolussus]

Probably, we'll know in a few days.

 

[JP]

Has it grosses $400M WW yet ? t:

We'll know in a few hours or less.

 

[MarvelU]

Box Office Mojo has the film at $405,641,347 world wide now.

 

[JP]

It'll pass X2 next week.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Box Office Mojo has the film at $405,641,347 world wide now.

Nice. So much for the box office disappointment talk that was happening after opening weekend numbers. Any reasonable person knew this baby would finish somewhere in the 400 m range when all is said and done (as evidenced by the poll results).

These numbers also make me wonder how some can still low-ball their predictions for DoFP. I've seen predictions in the 500-550 m range.

 

[BlackFox]

Box Office Mojo has the film at $405,641,347 world wide now.

Great news!! Really pleased its done well WW and left Origins in the past.

 

[Superhero 101]

Box Office Mojo has the film at $405,641,347 world wide now.

Cha Ching!!

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Nice. So much for the box office disappointment talk that was happening after opening weekend numbers. Any reasonable person knew this baby would finish somewhere in the 400 m range when all is said and done (as evidenced by the poll results).

These numbers also make me wonder how some can still low-ball their predictions for DoFP. I've seen predictions in the 500-550 m range.

If The Wolverine can pull in 400 m WW I'd say DOFP could make 600-700 m.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Box Office Mojo has the film at $405,641,347 world wide now.

Enough for Wolverine 3?