Thor: Box Office and Predictions

[Filmfreak]

They'll be ok, but they won't be that thrilled, especially for such a high profile film. Adding subscribers does not mean there's no need for it to have much profit in cinemas. One doesn't negate the other.

 

[HammerDown]

 

[InCali]

Sure but I don't think Disney execs will be happy with an MCU movie barely breaking even theatrically.

I mean sure, you always wanna make more money but I’m quite sure that they’ll go forward with the fifth movie. Thor is a great IP. As I’ve said, I think the movie was a little uneven but overall I liked it. I don’t know whether that was a result of the studio insisting on it being two hours, if true or whether this just wasn’t one of the directors better efforts. I personally think that the Thor movies deserve a more serious tone but that’s just my opinion.

 

[InCali]

233 million after 10 days it’s pretty darn good. There’s a certain level of expectation that, when Not met, leads to the perception that a movie has done poorly at the box office. I see this all the time for marvel movies. If they don’t blow the roof off the house, there’s this idea that they didn’t do well and nothing could be further from the truth. We will see how it holds over the next few weeks. Doctor Strange had some really, really strong holds in the third fourth etc. week and we’ll see what happens here.

 

[samsnee]

It dropped 68%. That’s not good. It means word of mouth is either bad or non-existent. Considering this probably cost $250M to make, I doubt it will be profitable.

It’s interesting Ragnarok saved the franchise and one sequel later it’s not liked again.

 

[TheVileOne]

Can already see people running to type dishonest clickbait narratives about this movie's box office.

 

[TheVileOne]

It dropped 68%. That’s not good. It means word of mouth is either bad or non-existent. Considering this probably cost $250M to make, I doubt it will be profitable.

It’s interesting Ragnarok saved the franchise and one sequel later it’s not liked again.

Spider-Man: No Way Home dropped 67.5%. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness dropped 67 percent.

Multiverse of Madness has $411 million domestic and $954 million worldwide.

The drop from Friday to Friday doesn't take into account that on its opening day, Thor: Love and Thunder made $29 million from Thursday previews. That $29 million gets counted for the movie's opening day and initial opening weekend.

 

[TheVileOne]

233 million after 10 days it’s pretty darn good. There’s a certain level of expectation that, when Not met, leads to the perception that a movie has done poorly at the box office. I see this all the time for marvel movies. If they don’t blow the roof off the house, there’s this idea that they didn’t do well and nothing could be further from the truth. We will see how it holds over the next few weeks. Doctor Strange had some really, really strong holds in the third fourth etc. week and we’ll see what happens here.

I saw it with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Sure but I don't think Disney execs will be happy with an MCU movie barely breaking even theatrically.

Considering the box office was cut off at its knees in 2020, and box office revenue was still in a massive recovery in 2021, it's gotten back to a pretty safe level at this point. So for a movie like this able to make over $800 million worldwide without China is pretty impressive.

 

[HammerDown]

DS:MOM had an equally substantial drop on the 2nd weekend and then it eventually stabilized to the point where it actually made a great result domestically. Let’s see how TLT behaves moving forward.

The summer is still pretty barren in terms of content. Nope is the only film of note coming out next weekend, it’s a horror flick and so it doesn’t have the same target audience as TLT which is more of a family friendly fun romp through space. Then the weekend after that there’s just Super Pets basically and the weekend after that comes out Bullet Train… So yeh there’s plenty of breathing room to make some solid BO numbers in the foreseeable future.

 

[Filmfreak]

• Black Widow had a simultaneous release in Disney+ with premier access and was out at a much worse period for cinemas.
• Strange had a bigger opening at 187 million.
• Spider-Man didn't just have a huge first weekend at 260 million, but the second one was on Christmas days, that are known to have a significant drop in the box office due to family holidays.
• Thor's 68% drop comes after a first weekend where it made less than the lower end initial projections. And for a film with such cost and of such caliber I don't expect Marvel to be extremely enthusiastic about it. It also has a much more lukewarm reception than all of the other mentioned films, so I doubt it will hold as well as they did in the upcoming weeks.

I'm not saying it is a box office disappointment. The film still makes hundreds of millions, so that means something. I just don't think it's fair to mention those examples without any context.

In any case, let's wait for the third weekend. Things will be much clearer then, either way.

 

[InCali]

It dropped 68%. That’s not good. It means word of mouth is either bad or non-existent. Considering this probably cost $250M to make, I doubt it will be profitable.

It’s interesting Ragnarok saved the franchise and one sequel later it’s not liked again.

What 68% is, is about what a lot of marvel IP‘s drop in the second week. Now, it didn’t make as much as Multiverse of madness, but it’s not a bad box office performance and it’s going to make some money for sure. Also, I think it’s a gross overstatement to say that people don’t like it again. I think that’s blatantly untrue

 

[TheVileOne]

• Black Widow had a simultaneous release in Disney+ with premier access and was out at a much worse period for cinemas.
• Strange had a bigger opening at 187 million.
• Spider-Man didn't just have a huge first weekend at 260 million, but the second one was on Christmas days, that are known to have a significant drop in the box office due to family holidays.
• Thor's 68% drop comes after a first weekend where it made less than the lower end initial projections. And for a film with such cost and of such caliber I don't expect Marvel to be extremely enthusiastic about it. It also has a much more lukewarm reception than all of the other mentioned films, so I doubt it will hold as well as they did in the upcoming weeks.

I'm not saying it is a box office disappointment. The film still makes hundreds of millions, so that means something. I just don't think it's fair to mention those examples without any context.

In any case, let's wait for the third weekend. Things will be much clearer then, either way.

I think you mean DOCTOR STRANGER

 

[Hannibal75]

According to Box Office Mojo the movie has already made more than 700 million worldwide. So no, it won't lose money.
I'm hardly a fan but let's not ignore the facts.

 

[writer0327]

According to Box Office Mojo the movie has already made more than 700 million worldwide. So no, it won't lose money.
I'm hardly a fan but let's not ignore the facts.

I don't know if Mojo's numbers are right. Box Office Pro and Variety has it at $498M world wide, which sounds more reasonable than $700M.

 

[Filmfreak]

Yeah there must be some kind of a mistake. In the first weekend the film was at 300 million worldwide and it did 33% more in the second one, without even opening in any new significant markets? I bet they confused the international numbers with the overall ones.

 

[writer0327]

And with Dr. Strange MOM moving so quickly to Disney Plus (I believe at the 45 day mark) a lot of folks might be thinking "Well, heck, I can wait until mid-August to see this movie on D+, no reason to rush out and spend money I don't have."

They are training their customers to expect stuff to arrive to D+ faster than normal and proliferating MCU content like there's no tomorrow. If it's not a must-see movie and its getting iffy reviews and word of mouth, that's gonna hurt.

 

[writer0327]

Yeah there must be some kind of a mistake. In the first weekend the film was at 300 million worldwide and it did 33% more in the second one, without even opening in any new significant markets? I bet they confused the international numbers with the overall ones.

I think that's exactly what it is

 

[CaptainWagner]

Can already see people running to type dishonest clickbait narratives about this movie's box office.

You don't have to, you can already read them here:

It dropped 68%. That’s not good. It means word of mouth is either bad or non-existent. Considering this probably cost $250M to make, I doubt it will be profitable.

It’s interesting Ragnarok saved the franchise and one sequel later it’s not liked again.

This is the expected drop based on every movie they've released so far in Phase 4. It's not too steeper from what we were already used to pre-Endgame. And yet since the response was divisive, the people who hated it/want it to fail will take the numbers out of context to suit their narrative, then slowly grow silent as the weekends roll on and the movie winds up finishing in the 800-900 million range.

I didn't like this movie that much, but I'm not gonna be dishonest about the numbers.

 

[HammerDown]

2nd weekend / Domestic Total

Ragnarok - 57M / 315M
Thor: L&T - 46M / ?
SM: H - 44M / 334M
GOTG - 42M / 333M

The domestic run for these 4 movies looked like this at exactly the same time period/10 days:

Thor: L&T - 233M
Ragnarok - 212M
SM: H - 207M
GOTG - 176M

So for now it seems like it’s heading to a domestic total of roughly 350M.

 

[Filmfreak]

I guess it's a matter of perspective. From Variety:

For “Thor,” the fourth superhero adventure to spotlight Chris Hemsworth as the Asgardian god with abs that won’t quit, a concerning 68% decline is signaling the movie is not breaking out beyond the comic book empire’s (albeit very big) fanbase. Though “Love and Thunder” will certainly end its box office run with a tidy sum, it’s not ideal for a film of its size and scope to lose such a significant fraction of its audience so quickly after opening weekend. It’s one of the biggest second-weekend drops in MCU history next to May’s “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness,” which tumbled 67% in its sophomore outing. (Disney’s “Strange” sequel film still earned a mighty $411 million domestically). By comparison, recent Marvel entries were able to fare better with “Eternals” dipping 61% and “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” falling 52%.

Saying that such a drop is usual with Marvel movies in general or even post Endgame, without giving any context, is only partially true. And I doubt that, outside Spider-Man, Phase 4 numbers are Disney's ideal ones, anyway.

 

[HammerDown]

From what I’m seeing it seems like Spider-Man: Homecoming could serve as a decent BO comparison for TLT. While SM: Homecoming was well received it also met considerable competition when it come out, TLT has had a lukewarm reception but it has basically no competition for the summer. Interestingly enough both movies came out at exactly the same time in July.

For example SM: Homecoming had to cope, in July, with the new releases of:
- War for the Planet of the Apes (146M Dom)
- Girls Trip (115M)
- Dunkirk (189M)
- The Emoji Movie (86M)
- Atomic Blonde (51M)

While TLT has:
- Nope
- League of Super-Pets
- Bullet Train (* August)

So far and excluding the OW, the 2nd weekend is looking fairly similar and moving forward I could see a similar set of results, for example SM:H 3rd weekend was of 22M let’s see how TLT performs.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

I saw it with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness



Considering the box office was cut off at its knees in 2020, and box office revenue was still in a massive recovery in 2021, it's gotten back to a pretty safe level at this point. So for a movie like this able to make over $800 million worldwide without China is pretty impressive.

You think it’s got another $300 million in it at the box office?

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

DS:MOM had an equally substantial drop on the 2nd weekend and then it eventually stabilized to the point where it actually made a great result domestically. Let’s see how TLT behaves moving forward.

The summer is still pretty barren in terms of content. Nope is the only film of note coming out next weekend, it’s a horror flick and so it doesn’t have the same target audience as TLT which is more of a family friendly fun romp through space. Then the weekend after that there’s just Super Pets basically and the weekend after that comes out Bullet Train… So yeh there’s plenty of breathing room to make some solid BO numbers in the foreseeable future.

Nope is currently tracking an opening between 47 and 49 million. TLT didn’t even make that THIS weekend. I definitely think Nope will take a big chunk out of Thor next weekend.

 

[Evil Twin]

From what I’m seeing it seems like Spider-Man: Homecoming could serve as a decent BO comparison for TLT. While SM: Homecoming was well received it also met considerable competition when it come out, TLT has had a lukewarm reception but it has basically no competition for the summer. Interestingly enough both movies came out at exactly the same time in July.

For example SM: Homecoming had to cope, in July, with the new releases of:
- War for the Planet of the Apes (146M Dom)
- Girls Trip (115M)
- Dunkirk (189M)
- The Emoji Movie (86M)
- Atomic Blonde (51M)

While TLT has:
- Nope
- League of Super-Pets
- Bullet Train (* August)

So far and excluding the OW, the 2nd weekend is looking fairly similar and moving forward I could see a similar set of results, for example SM:H 3rd weekend was of 22M let’s see how TLT performs.

There's always the competition of just not going to the theater. Or watching something on streaming. I'm not sure that competition in theaters means all that much these days besides how many screens are occupied.

FWIW, I think TLT is doing fine. It's still likely the summer weekday choice for kids for most of the rest of the summer. Unless, Super-Pets is a lot more charming than anyone thinks. Yes, it's not going to challenge Top Gun: Maverick, Doctor Strange 2, or Jurassic World: Dominion at the worldwide box office. It's probably going to finish somewhere on par with The Batman. It's probably going to have to "settle" for being the most successful Thor movie at the box office.

 

[Zyraquis]

It’s too early to judge whether the collapse is real by just one weekend that followed the opening weekend. The summer is still long.

Let’s not also forget the inflation is also very real and brutal. So instead of seeing one move, the family may opt to stream one at home instead (or see 1 instead of 2 movies at cinema so Minions wins), to compensate for the higher food and gas prices. It doesn’t necessarily translate into the problem with this IP (not to say there is no problem.)

Control the production cost, Thor 5 is good to go, I can see whatever issues it has, there is a pretty good audience base to make a decent theatrical profit if expenses can be restrained. And also plenty of auxiliary revenues like licensing/copyright fees (yeah every time you see a Thor face on a product, MCU gains) and toys etc. D+ is a nice cherry on the cake because it does desperately needs content not only to add subs but to hold subs too. No way Thor movies will stop here unless the main actor calls it quit.