Revenge of the Fallen Transformers: ROTF Box Office Discussion

Predict the box office for Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

  • $100 million or less

  • $100-150 million

  • $150-200 million

  • $200-250 million

  • $250 million-300 million

  • $300 million-350 million

  • $350 million-400 million

  • $400 million-450 million

  • $450 million or more


Results are only viewable after voting.
I'm pretty sure he wasn't suggesting that the story was too complicated. Complicated storyline and Michael Bay just don't go hand in hand :cwink:. I think he meant it was just stupid.


Well that's one thing but, People Keep saying it didn't make sense [because of stupidity]
 
Does anybody know what's the actual percentage for studios on domestic box office and foreign gross?
I learned Paramount spent, above the $200 million for the production, also $150 million for promotion, giving a total cost of $350 million (but I still don't know if prints and taxes are included).
Wich is the "magic" number that declares the movie a success?

It depends from movie to movie. One of the reasons why studios are trying to release movies in as much theaters as possible is because they don't have to pay theaters as much to play their movies because of demand.
The theaters will always get a percentage of the movie gross and the more people want to see a particular movie , the more money they will make.
With movies like ROTF ,which have a massive , studios have the "advantage" since they don't need tp pay the cinemas that much. However if the movie is going to be played for a long period , then studios will have to pay the theaters more. Especially if it's a movie where there isn't that much demand.

There is a difference between a movie having legs and a movie being in theaters just because the studio wants it.
The Dark KNight had legs. Superman Returns didn't.

Here's an interesting article that i found thru wikipedia :
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/hollywood/business/windows.html
A Hollywood movie will stay in the theaters anywhere from two weeks to 12 months. Of the revenues generated at the box office, the studio ultimately will take home 50-55 percent, leaving the balance to the theater-owners. During the early weeks of a film's release, the studio's cut can be as high as 90 percent in some cases; at the end of a long run, that can flip entirely, leaving 90 percent to the theater-owners and only 10 percent to the studios. This may be one of the reasons the length of the theatrical window has declined in recent years, as studios have determined that it may be friendlier to the bottom line to move their films more quickly to the home-video market.

As for the budget. I dunno where you got the number of 150 mil for the marketing. However aside from Michael Bay , the budget reports always come from the media. Directors never discuss the cost of the budget and to my knowledge at least BAy seems to be the only who openly says how much his movies cost.
And according to him the movie cosr 194 million.
 
You know if u Pay Attention the Story was Actually Easy to follow [and the twins weren't Racist]




Ok....how about the Twins were stereotypically stupid?

I like the Transformers concept....always have....but I am NOT a fan of Michael Bay at all....
 
Depending on how Tuesday went, I think that after 9 days ROTF will be standing at $247 million. By comparison after 9 days TDK was at $290 million (Of course after 9 days TDK was in its 2nd Saturday, meanwhile ROTF still has a 10th day Fri, 11th day Sat., and a 12th day Sunday)

Now earlier I said ROTF could make it to $300 million after Sunday's numbers are in but in retrospect I'm starting to get the feeling that it may be well short of that. My new guess is around $296 million for ROTF after Sun. (just my gut feeling).

That would mean that after 12 days for ROTF (2 weekends, plus a full week, plus an opening day Wed. and Thurs.) I think its going to at $296 million (more or less).

Meanwhile TDK after 12 days (2 weekends, plus a full week, plus a second week Mon. and Tues.) had made $333 million.

Even if I'm off by a little bit its pretty safe to say that ROTF has already fallen way behind TDK's run. If my estimate does hold that means ROTF will be trailing TDK by almost $40 million on its 12th day, and we can only expect it to fall even further behind by the 3rd week when Harry Potter opens nationwide.

note: I'm not trying to hate on ROTF I'm just providing a little bit of perspective as to where we can expect ROTF's B.O. performance (in the U.S. at least) to go from here.

WARNING: If Puerto Rico has anything to say about, then these estimates are subject to change.
 
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The thing is Michael Bay has always had, in his head, a vision of what a summer blockbuster should be and whether it's Pearl Harbour, cloning or a toy line as source material he'll make the version that fits his taste (or lack of it).

Bay is suceeding, despite the reviews, because he's giving the public the kind of summer blockbuster THEY perceive the 'genre' to be. Dumb, jingoistic, sexist, **** blowing up etc. Whilst everyone from Raimi and Singer (initially anyway) to Nolan, Pixar, Apatow and now recently Abrams and Favreau have been praised this decade for giving or trying to give the yearly 'experience' between May and August more genuine heart and brains Bay seems to be continually saying 'Why does anyone need to take the stuff we put out during these months seriously on ANY level?'

It's the root of why I feel he has defenders (even Spielberg on some level appreciates that) and a willing public.
 
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Here's something interesting:

"Michael Bay wishes he had one more week to edit the picture, which everyone, including him, agrees is too long. It could use a trim. Paramount's new production chief Adam Goodman, who supervised the movie, asked Bay to cut it, but he wouldn't, partly because they ran out of time. Paramount wants another installment to go real soon, on a slightly smaller-scale. Bay has other plans. He says he wants to do something else first. Clear his head a little."

Maybe a director's cut for DVD? hmm.
 
Here's the link:

http://weblogs.variety.com/thompsononhollywood/2009/06/transformers-rotf-premiere-party-labeouf-news.html

So, if the average percentage of total earnings is about 50% (but domestic or worldwide?), ROTF must make $700 million to recover just the costs.

Again that is IF you're believing what the media is saying.The media will always put the number higher then what studio sources are saying. So let's just use the middle ground.Bay is saying the movie cost 194 million. VAriety is saying higher then 200 million. We'll use the 200 million number. The general rule is that to break even ( make make the production + ad. costs) a movie has to make double the amount in worldwide sales . Anything above that is a profit.
So ROTF needs to make 400 million to cover it's budget.
Now we honestly don't know how much the percentage is that the studio gets in the first weeks but i'm sure that it's higher then the 50 % average.
Hence why it very well could be that they're already reaching the point of breaking even.
 
Here's something interesting:

"Michael Bay wishes he had one more week to edit the picture, which everyone, including him, agrees is too long. It could use a trim. Paramount's new production chief Adam Goodman, who supervised the movie, asked Bay to cut it, but he wouldn't, partly because they ran out of time. Paramount wants another installment to go real soon, on a slightly smaller-scale. Bay has other plans. He says he wants to do something else first. Clear his head a little."

Maybe a director's cut for DVD? hmm.
i never saw a shorter DC :applaud

now way. Bay is BS talking IMO. he didnt start editing 1 week before the premiere. this was months of work. i dont belive that in the last week he would do major changes on the cut.
 
The thing is Michael Bay has always had, in his head, a vision of what a summer blockbuster should be and whether it's Pearl Harbour, cloning or a toy line as source material he'll make the version that fits his taste (or lack of it).

Bay is suceeding, despite the reviews, because he's giving the public the kind of summer blockbuster THEY perceive the 'genre' to be. Dumb, jingoistic, sexist, **** blowing up etc. Whilst everyone from Raimi and Singer (initially anyway) to Nolan, Pixar, Apatow and now recently Abrams and Favreau have been praised this decade for giving or trying to give the yearly 'experience' between May and August more genuine heart and brains Bay seems to be continually saying 'Why does anyone need to take the stuff we put out during these months seriously on ANY level?'

It's the root of why I feel he has defenders (even Spielberg on some level appreciates that) and a willing public.


the problem with that line of thinking is that there is room for every kind of film and it's somewhat arrogant to "out" a film because it doesn't fall into this emerging boys club "elevating summer films"

there is a huge audience that simply sat ate their popcorn and enjoyed the film, do you look down on them as well?

bay knows this audience exists, is it a crime to give them something they will enjoy?

that's the same line of thinking that suggests that slapstick comedy should be eliminated to make way for "more" "heart & story" based Apatow comedy.

it's literally like taking a fun movie like Evil Dead and saying it's crap compared to films that take the genre seriously ala devils back bone or even 28 days later.

why is so much thought put into the idea that bay has an agenda along the lines of
'Why does anyone need to take the stuff we put out during these months seriously on ANY level?'

first of all Bayformers isn't as brainless as ppl say it is, it's not scary movie or even charlies angels....

at the same time, not "everything needs to be taken seriously on any or every level"
just like not every meal needs to be fully balanced and super healthy

sometimes people just wanna eat ice cream(it's actually really popular), and then you'll have critics and such making essays about why it's a waste of money...

ok lets see what happens when you have your way, no more ice cream... lets all just eat sandwiches.

I still can't believe that people see his films as missed opportunities at higher art
I'll agree that pearl harbor and maybe the island probably shouldn't have gotten the bay treatment

but a buddy cop series and a kids toy line?


Lastly something like Iron man for example, could be seen as kiddie genre tripe with superheros and capes fighting "Evil doers" with EXPLOSIONS to the likes of "real" film scholars that believe..(best part)..

that films should only be the deep engrossing complexities of life questioning small films with wide landscapes ilk the likes of english patient, dr shivago and fitzcaraldo(sp).

to look down on bays stuff and look up to iron man is pretty much the hobo calling the dog dirty

before judging something have a little perspective, there is room in this industry for everyone and everything and to tell people they don't or shouldn't like something takes some gull

I say that because TF just about set a record with viewers and it did so with every critic in the world kicking and screaming.

"the beauty in art is that it's for the people to decide weather it's worth their time or not."

The thing is Michael Bay has always had, in his head, a vision of what a summer blockbuster should be

and apparently so do you.
 
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But, unlike Ironman, or the first Transformers movie even, ROTF was just not well done. I've been a fan of Transformers since the 80's, and I want the property I love it be successful. I want Transformers to be looked up to like Ironman or Dark Knight, not down to like Street Fighter or Drangon Ball Z.
 
But, unlike Ironman, or the first Transformers movie even, ROTF was just not well done. I've been a fan of Transformers since the 80's, and I want the property I love it be successful. I want Transformers to be looked up to like Ironman or Dark Knight, not down to like Street Fighter or Drangon Ball Z.
the problem is that every movie can not be like TDK. thats unrealistic.
 
the problem is that every movie can not be like TDK. thats unrealistic.


Dark_b is right. Every movie has its own unique style to them wither you love them or hate them to death and thats why most of these type of films are what they are and that is what it is. TDK is its own movie. Transformers is its own movie. They're different in its own aspect in terms of story, characters, tone structure and everything else. The problem is if every movie copied the same style as TDK, then it becomes repetitive and they wouldn't be very good movies. I'd get tired of the same layout if every film followed the same formula or tried to.

Keeping in mind, not every film is perfect.
 
But, unlike Ironman, or the first Transformers movie even, ROTF was just not well done. I've been a fan of Transformers since the 80's, and I want the property I love it be successful. I want Transformers to be looked up to like Ironman or Dark Knight, not down to like Street Fighter or Drangon Ball Z.




Exactly....but some (especially Bay fans) are content with the way Bay targets the lowest common denominator of the general movie audiences intelligence in his films.

Others are just completely insulted by what he does and are not fooled.
 
Why does every single movue have to come back to TDK?

I'm not picking a fight or anything it just gets very annoying. With people comparing every single movie thats out not to TDK.

I mean please, can we just stop it.
 
I agree with TAC.

You said it TAC. :up:

This pickering and comparing ROTF to TDK is not worth fighting about.
 
I tell you, it'll be like Pirates 2. Internet WOM and General Public WOM will differ. I see it beating both of next weeks movie. I'm rather interested in seeing how Ice Age does, because there are about 3 movies out right now that I think its target audience would go to.





Well I'll be seeing Public Enemies and taking my nephews to see Ice Age 3 before I see Transformers 2 again in the theater thats for damn sure.
 
the problem with that line of thinking is that there is room for every kind of film and it's somewhat arrogant to "out" a film because it doesn't fall into this emerging boys club "elevating summer films"

there is a huge audience that simply sat ate their popcorn and enjoyed the film, do you look down on them as well?

bay knows this audience exists, is it a crime to give them something they will enjoy?

that's the same line of thinking that suggests that slapstick comedy should be eliminated to make way for "more" "heart & story" based Apatow comedy.

it's literally like taking a fun movie like Evil Dead and saying it's crap compared to films that take the genre seriously ala devils back bone or even 28 days later.

why is so much thought put into the idea that bay has an agenda along the lines of


first of all Bayformers isn't as brainless as ppl say it is, it's not scary movie or even charlies angels....

at the same time, not "everything needs to be taken seriously on any or every level"
just like not every meal needs to be fully balanced and super healthy

sometimes people just wanna eat ice cream(it's actually really popular), and then you'll have critics and such making essays about why it's a waste of money...

ok lets see what happens when you have your way, no more ice cream... lets all just eat sandwiches.

I still can't believe that people see his films as missed opportunities at higher art
I'll agree that pearl harbor and maybe the island probably shouldn't have gotten the bay treatment

but a buddy cop series and a kids toy line?


Lastly something like Iron man for example, could be seen as kiddie genre tripe with superheros and capes fighting "Evil doers" with EXPLOSIONS to the likes of "real" film scholars that believe..(best part)..

that films should only be the deep engrossing complexities of life questioning small films with wide landscapes ilk the likes of english patient, dr shivago and fitzcaraldo(sp).

to look down on bays stuff and look up to iron man is pretty much the hobo calling the dog dirty

before judging something have a little perspective, there is room in this industry for everyone and everything and to tell people they don't or shouldn't like something takes some gull

I say that because TF just about set a record with viewers and it did so with every critic in the world kicking and screaming.

"the beauty in art is that it's for the people to decide weather it's worth their time or not."



and apparently so do you.

I'm curious what is it about ROTF that you liked? Your defense above is fair and well-reasoned but I'm someone who personally finds all of Bay's work cliched, sexist and mean-spirited and to me those aren't 'fun'. And the thing is there are aspects of that in say Judd Apatow's stuff(or a ton of other directors) but I don't mind because his films suceed in their primary aim of being funny. I've never, however, found myself genuinely thrilled by Bayhem (an accurate term)even though I admit the man has a talented eye. I don't and have never had genuine feelings for any of his characters therefore I emotionally remain blank during the action scenes.
 
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Exactly....but some (especially Bay fans) are content with the way Bay targets the lowest common denominator of the general movie audiences intelligence in his films.

Others are just completely insulted by what he does and are not fooled.

well i dont think that many people are insulted as this movie is pretty much getting a liscense to print money....and since they are looking to Bay to make another one. So where's the problem??? Why is it that everyone hates this movie but everyone loves it????
 
well i dont think that many people are insulted as this movie is pretty much getting a liscense to print money....and since they are looking to Bay to make another one. So where's the problem??? Why is it that everyone hates this movie but everyone loves it????
It's just the whiny internet people who hate it. The general movie going public is eatting this up.
 
It's just the whiny internet people who hate it. The general movie going public is eatting this up.
It depends all the people I know didnt like it.
And some people who came out of it at and initially were like "HOT DAMN THAT WAS AWESOME" kind of started going like "oh, it was alright"

I mean the movie is gonna make money because its the movie you have to see in theaters.
 
the problem with that line of thinking is that there is room for every kind of film and it's somewhat arrogant to "out" a film because it doesn't fall into this emerging boys club "elevating summer films"

there is a huge audience that simply sat ate their popcorn and enjoyed the film, do you look down on them as well?

bay knows this audience exists, is it a crime to give them something they will enjoy?

that's the same line of thinking that suggests that slapstick comedy should be eliminated to make way for "more" "heart & story" based Apatow comedy.

it's literally like taking a fun movie like Evil Dead and saying it's crap compared to films that take the genre seriously ala devils back bone or even 28 days later.

why is so much thought put into the idea that bay has an agenda along the lines of


first of all Bayformers isn't as brainless as ppl say it is, it's not scary movie or even charlies angels....

at the same time, not "everything needs to be taken seriously on any or every level"
just like not every meal needs to be fully balanced and super healthy

sometimes people just wanna eat ice cream(it's actually really popular), and then you'll have critics and such making essays about why it's a waste of money...

ok lets see what happens when you have your way, no more ice cream... lets all just eat sandwiches.

I still can't believe that people see his films as missed opportunities at higher art
I'll agree that pearl harbor and maybe the island probably shouldn't have gotten the bay treatment

but a buddy cop series and a kids toy line?


Lastly something like Iron man for example, could be seen as kiddie genre tripe with superheros and capes fighting "Evil doers" with EXPLOSIONS to the likes of "real" film scholars that believe..(best part)..

that films should only be the deep engrossing complexities of life questioning small films with wide landscapes ilk the likes of english patient, dr shivago and fitzcaraldo(sp).

to look down on bays stuff and look up to iron man is pretty much the hobo calling the dog dirty

before judging something have a little perspective, there is room in this industry for everyone and everything and to tell people they don't or shouldn't like something takes some gull

I say that because TF just about set a record with viewers and it did so with every critic in the world kicking and screaming.

"the beauty in art is that it's for the people to decide weather it's worth their time or not."



and apparently so do you.

Oops double post.
 
But, unlike Ironman, or the first Transformers movie even, ROTF was just not well done. I've been a fan of Transformers since the 80's, and I want the property I love it be successful. I want Transformers to be looked up to like Ironman or Dark Knight, not down to like Street Fighter or Drangon Ball Z.

there is too much agenda's for that to happen

I personally want the film to be successful, powerful and part of pop culture again.

like 40 year old virgin and unlike say, Superman (returns)
 
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