What will be done with Daredevil, Iron Fist and Luke Cage now that their Netflix shows are canceled?

[Spider-Fan]

If these same shows were on FX or something, I bet they would have been renewed.

 

[samsnee]

Daredevil probably would have. I doubt the other ones. Netflix just has so much freaking content that if you don't get buzz and sustain it, they aren't going to give you the time to find an audience.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Iron Fist there is a debate, but Luke Cage I def think would have been renewed.

 

[Detective Conan]

 

[TheVileOne]

To me there is no proof that Luke Cage did bad in its first season here like the video says it does. All indication is that Luke Cage did really well.

If that's not the case than show me the real numbers? No one has real Netflix viewership numbers to back these statements up.

 

[babykhris]

I’ve been saying from the beginning Disney should work out a deal with Netflix to get Daredevil’s past seasons and then continue it on Hulu.

Let’s be honest Hulu needs a marquee TV show and Daredevil could become that. Then after that maybe we could add Heroes for Hire as another show.

 

[samsnee]

The money probably isn't worth it.

 

[Random490]

I’ve been saying from the beginning Disney should work out a deal with Netflix to get Daredevil’s past seasons and then continue it on Hulu.

Let’s be honest Hulu needs a marquee TV show and Daredevil could become that. Then after that maybe we could add Heroes for Hire as another show.

The money probably isn't worth it.

Netflix will probably never allow an exclusive show to be distributed elsewhere. Their whole business model is based of exclusivity. Even if future season are aired somewhere else, that only would serve as perfect advertisements for people to get netflix to see earlier seasons. So the price tag for a distribution license would be massive, well beyond the worthy of having those shows. Disney/Marvel would never pay that. I can picture maybe a deal where say, if FX picks up the shows have previous seasons air once as a lead up but even then it wouldn't be worth it to the network cost I doubt they'd get any revenue for it.

 

[Infinity9999x]

I don't think Netflix has to be bought out for their distribution rights. I heard some saying that the licenses were up soon, and that part of the reason Netflix dropped them, in addition to Disney now being a competitor is that Disney made Netflix pay out the wazoo to use these characters to being with, and they weren't looking forward to being likely asked to pay even more. So it's likely Netflix only has the distribution rights to the seasons they've made. Nothing would stop Disney from continuing it if they so chose. In the same way that other Networks serve as distributors to shows and when those shows get cancelled another network picks them up without having to buy out anything from the network that cancelled them.

 

[Yowza]

Twitter Newsfeed Alert!

This time from one Mathew Ball; former head of strategy at Amazon Studio's offering his insight on the Netflix Cancellation on 12/03/18-12/04/18:

2/ Netflix reportedly holds the right to keep renewing these shows, irrespective of Disney's preferences. Disney may be entering Netflix's territory with Disney+, but that didn’t drive the cancellations. Netflix was making a rationale decision based on quality, cost, viewership

3/ To point, the shows will remain NETFLIX ORIGINALS for years, Disney would have to buy them back (and says they don’t fit with Disney+’s positioning and won't be rebought) and there’s likely a hold on re-using the IP in TV (i.e. Disney can’t just launch a new Luke Cage in 2019)
4/ The reality is these shows were unprecentedly expensive (Netflix reportedly paying 60% markup), but they weren’t very good, audiences have undoubtedly declined precipitously (you can see this in the marketing spend) and it’s hard to grow audience in late seasons
5/ With old, mediocre shows it's just about viewer retention each year. To point, Disney never put much effort in their Netflix shows. Daredevil had 3 showrunners in 3 seasons, Luke Cage was 2 in 2, Jessica Jones 2 in 3, etc. (And the teased MCU integration never happened!!)
6/ It's telling that the signature achievements and performers of the MCU are the 'Avengers' films, but the 'Defenders' was one of the least buzzy, least viewed titles (in part because the preceding two series, the back half of Luke Cage and all of Iron Fist, were very poor)
Poor quality always catches up to you with content REDEF ORIGINAL: 'Star Wars' Fatigue Is a Myth (but Disney’s Mistakes Were Real, Costly and Avoidable)
7/ The Netflix-Marvel deal was set at a time (Nov 2013) when NFLX needed big, buzzy IP that stood out and didn't need to be managed internally. Willing to pay whatever it took for it
And note, the deal was meant to be single seasons. Despite its end, Marvel/Netflix was a success
8/ In 2019, Netflix has a huge internal pipeline - fueled by mega-deal with Shonda Rhymes, Ryan Murphy etc - and there's no markup for their own stuff
And Netflix's audience and brand are much larger. This means Netflix's needs grew as the contribution of the Marvel shows waned
9/ And with Marvel now focused on their own SVOD shows (e.g. the MCU Loki series for Disney+), it’s hard to imagine Disney’s best foot forward was going to go towards aged Netflix series
10/ Netflix reportedly wanted to shorten the seasons, thereby reducing total spend and improving retention and quality (Netflix’s shows, especially the Marvel ones, are famously bloated). Reportedly from 13 eps to 6-8. REDEF ORIGINAL: Netflix Is a Product & Technology Company (Netflix Misunderstandings, Pt. 2)
11/ Which means Disney would have to effectively reduce their revenue from 2/3rds, while keeping valuable characters unavailable for all other live action applications, while focusing on their own D2C. And while Netflix could force a renewal, they couldn’t do so at new terms
12/ So Disney liked balked. The value wasn’t there for either party. It once was. And everyone is now tired of financing another party’s enterprise value growth – the economic incentives (cost minimization and upside maximization) drive vertical integration.
Fin/ In short, it just wasn’t working for anyone. Including most of the series’ original fans.


For more on how Originals work REDEF ORIGINAL: How the Paradox of the Term ‘Original Series’ Explains the Video Industry (Netflix Misunderstandings, Pt. 4)




Also - To give an numbers example:
Marvel shows need 60% more viewership than one made by Netflix, or 30% more made by another producer, just to be even.
If we assume Marvel shows have lost 50% of their S1 averages, it's possible DD S4 is 3x+ more expensive than alternatives
Also important: the importance of capital letter "Quality" is only growing over time. Netflix is increasingly focused on quality/impact over tonnage REDEF ORIGINAL: Netflix Is a Product & Technology Company (Netflix Misunderstandings, Pt. 2) …
Marvel series were primarily about the latter.


To be super clear. The shows will not be revived on Disney+, Hulu, Amazon, etc
1/ Netflix would have blocking rights
2/ Netflix won't sell early seasons
3/ No one would want to drive their customers to Netflix for S1-3
4/ Characters are likely contractually hibernated for 1-2yrs
5/ Disney has said they don't fit Disney+, even when the season rights revert after 5+ years
6/ Talent has been released and is very hard to re-assemble (usually far costlier)
7/ There is more upside in starting fresh, with a different take (see Spider-Man Homecoming)

Also keep in mind, Netflix has 11 seasons (6 subsequent seasons) to assess audience declines and projections going forward. It's not that hard to *know* what future viewership figures would be, 99% of the time.
Other option is to cut the budget, but it's very hard w/ a license
CORRECTION: Luke Cage only had one showrunner

More questions such as this still being added to thread linked above:

Question: Matt this is a great thread. Couple of questions. So Disney could start new Daredevil and Luke Cage shows on their new streaming service but would need to do a complete reboot? Can’t start from where the Netflix shows left off? And could Disney keep these same actors? Answer: Correct Probably have to wait 1-2 years Very doubtful

Interesting insight. I'd recommend actually reading through. I would have guessed it was Netflix that was pushing for the high episode counts not Marvel TV!

This makes me feel Marvel wasn't really trying to work things out.

 

[Yowza]

Following the report on Deadline today of Daredevil being the 4th highest streamed show when axed was the following rumor tweet from editor in chief of Collider.com Steven Weintraub:




More developing news on this but this rumor takes things even further than Marvel simply being difficult with Netflix to actually cannibalizing themselves. This is of course rumor for now but has me wondering.

 

[TheVileOne]

So which is it?

 

[Yowza]

Still waiting to see if Steven Weintraub will post either the source of the rumor or a follow-up on his twitter thread.

For now, timing of the Shang-Chi announcement along with insight from Alan Sepinwall and Mathew Ball following the cancellation that happened despite fairly high streaming has me thinking Marvel TV needs to work and stay busy. Marvel TV is having a bit of a dead period according to past reports after the Fox purchase (see news reports pertaining to New Warriors for instance) and perhaps this is one reason they're maybe being difficult to deal with. I'm still waiting to hear more though.

 

[CyclopsSummers]

My prediction: If they want to use them, they'll be rebooted.

-Disney+ cant reprise characters from Netflix without rebooting these characters. WTF
-Feige takes care about coherences of his universe and rebooting will make no sense. Dont want MCU becomes a mayhem "X-men-Fox like"
-They said Dardevil will appear in futures Marvel projects so Disney+ would probably bring DD back in MCU

However I think they 'll just retconning
Avengers 4 will make time travel and erase all events from Defenders and MCU movies since NYC invasion (2012). So DD, Luke Cage .... could be retconned

 

[TheVileOne]

I doubt Feige cares about the Netflix shows and characters.

 

[Detective Conan]

I think Feige does care about Daredevil and Iron Fist but he just doesn’t care enough about them enough to bring them to the bigscreen. I’ve said this before and I’ll say this again: if The Man Without Fear and the Immortal Iron Fist ever come to the MCU-proper it will be after the MCU is rebooted and Feige is no longer involved. There’s thousands of other Marvel characters for Feige to pick and choose from so he has other characters he’s interested in using cinematically besides the characters already used for the Netflix shows.

 

[BoredGuy]

Yeah, he's made it quite clear he's more interested in going cosmic with the future of the MCU than going street-level
which is a major bummer for me, cuz I've never cared for the "Marvel cosmic" properties

 

[Spider-Fan]

I love the cosmic Marvel stuff. But that said, I have always liked the idea of the street level MCU being mainly done on TV and grander scale stuff on film.

 

[Random490]

I love the cosmic Marvel stuff. But that said, I have always liked the idea of the street level MCU being mainly done on TV and grander scale stuff on film.

It's a much smarter idea to play to the strengths of the medium. I loved the idea of these shows being the street level, dark corners of the MCU. It also helps carve out a nice little niche out of the universe and scratch an itch the films couldn't really do.

 

[Darkprime]

If any of them get soft rebooted it will be daredevil he has too many good villains like Kingpin to not get re-introduced in the MCU. The others I'm not so sure.

 

[CyclopsSummers]

Characters from Netflix would be retcon according to me, if Disney+cant reprise them (same cast, same plot...).

Avengers 4 is already a "Days of Future Past" like , in order to retcon MCU since 2012

 

[Darkprime]

Don’t Expect ‘The Defenders’ on Disney Streaming Service Any Time Soon (EXCLUSIVE)

Sources tell Variety that the deal for the original four Marvel shows includes a clause that prevents the characters from appearing in any non-Netflix series or film for at least two years after cancellation. That means that “Daredevil,” “Luke Cage,” and “Iron Fist” — which were all canceled this year at Netflix — could not come to the Disney streaming service until 2020 at the earliest.

 

[samsnee]

Which means we are getting a recast if they ever come to the big screen. Two years is enough time for most people to forget about these characters.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Which means we are getting a recast if they ever come to the big screen. Two years is enough time for most people to forget about these characters.

That is not what that means at all. Could that happen? Yes, but all this means is that the characters cannot appear on TV or film for 2 years in any form. Once that 2 year period is up, they can use them again, so potentially the shows could return if they get the cast back and such, or the properties could be rebooted. Or they could just use them like they do Hulk as side characters. Who knows where we'll be in 2 years, but this doesn't mean it will definitely be a recast. I bet if asked, most of these guys would come back if they are able in 2 years time.

 

[I Am The Knight]

I think Feige will want to recast though. He will most likely want full control over his Daredevil version and that will probably mean wiping out what came before.