Transformers Will Transformers Trounce the Competition?

[Golgo-13]

Hmmm..Tuesdays an odd day to release a movie. I'll prbably seeing it opeining day, as i'm off on Tuesdays anyway..then see it again with a crowd on the weekend.

 

[Nivek]

I see the 6-day (Tuesday to Sunday) total for this film at about 125-135 million. Dropping to about 25-30 million the following weekend.

I say $250 million domestic Tuesday to Sunday. And thats a modest quote after seeing more and more footage.
I've already watched that Optimus/Bonecrusher highway tumple 15 times now. If most of effects in this are consistant with that (and the more Transformer footage I see, yeah...), I say this movie will bring in big return business from hell and back.

 

[Jdef]

I say $250 million domestic Tuesday to Sunday. And thats a modest quote after seeing more and more footage.
I've already watched that Optimus/Bonecrusher highway tumple 15 times now. If most of effects in this are consistant with that (and the more Transformer footage I see, yeah...), I say this movie will bring in big return business from hell and back.

That number is HUGE... The most i would expect the movie to pull through Sunday would be around 200... I hope you are right... I already wants me some sequels!

 

[Jdef]

You know.... thinking about it now 200 million seems about right... It's a long holiday opening, my initial estimate seems low.

 

[tviceman]

I say $250 million domestic Tuesday to Sunday. And thats a modest quote after seeing more and more footage.
I've already watched that Optimus/Bonecrusher highway tumple 15 times now. If most of effects in this are consistant with that (and the more Transformer footage I see, yeah...), I say this movie will bring in big return business from hell and back.

$250 mil in 5-6 days would be record breaking by a long shot. I will keep reiterating that Transformers will do extremely well. I think it'll be the third highest grossing movie this year (which is huge considering all the big movies coming out this year), but it will not do $250mil in the first 6 days. No way. My guess is around $150mil in the first 6 days of release.

Spidey 3 and Pirates, despite their dismal movies, will be the top two grossing movies. Transformers will beat out Harry Potter, which will make 3 & 4.

 

[XXTBWCXX]

Well, I have the idea that Transformers will beat out Spider-Man 3 and POTC3 and be number one for this summer...S-M 3 number two, Pirates 3 number three.

 

[nosebleed.]

I seriously doubt Transformers will beat Harry Potter. The last HP made about 290 mil and this movie is going to be even bigger with more drama and coinciding with the release of the last Harry Potter book...but buzz is going to be huge. THAT is Transformers MAIN competition.

 

[Tempest19]

Dude, HP is going to be more like 265-285, which is a maybe- due to the last HP book coming out. But, if that HP book didn't come out around then, 245-265.

The last HP film in the summer didn't do that hot. It got 250 mil. The highest rated HP film was released in the winter season. And that's because it is a more winter crowd film than summer crowd film and I'm betting we will probably see a similar effect to Narnia next summer (they should SERIOUSLY release that in the winter after next summer).

Is it going to be a big competitor? It's our main competitor, obviously, and make no mistake about it- it is going to do good.

Is it going to do as well or better than the last HP film? I highly doubt it, once again that winter and summer effect that I was talking about. I don't know if or if not you were trying to infer that HP this summer will make 290 or above at box office due to their being 'more' or just used the last one to show that these films (albiet, that example was in the winter) still do good/great at B.O.

And XX, as a fellow Transformers film fanatic- I can tell you, without a doubt, that TF will not be #1. We are more looking at a 3/4 or 4/5 race with Potter. I haven't kept up with how Shrek 3 is doing, thus the 3/4 or 4/5.

 

[nosebleed.]

I wouldn't underestimate the obsession of Harry Potter fans. They outnumber us by leagues.

 

[Tempest19]

Key: Winter vs. Summer

Yes, it is going to make more than the last summer HP film DUE TO THE BOOK. And I accounted for that in my estimates.

But, I am fairly certain that it won't act like a winter release and make 290 or more than that. That 290 came from general audience, due to HP being more of a winter film, WITH the fans.

This is why you have the "summer vs. winter" movies, which I believe that hypothesis/ theory came around the time of the last HP summer film.

Yes, fanbase for anything is huge... but, if you make the HP films only available to crazy HP fans- you will struggle at B.O. Make no mistake about that. This is FANS AND GENERAL AUDIENCE. No matter how large the fanbase may be.

Is it going to do good at Box Office? I keep saying yes. Although you can DEFINITELY expect it to act like more of a sleeper film, I bet due to technicalities.

Do I think it will act like a winter film and get 290+? Personally, no... but it may get near.

--------------------------------

Technicality theory:

Last summer I kept a watchful eye on the Superman Returns box office alongside alot of other posters over on Blue Tights. The one thing we all came to notice is that, although the IMAX showings around us were being sold out or near sold out... we didn't really see that money in the weekly totals. However, at the end we made it to 200 mil.

Now, the theory that I came up with last year- and I am going to apply it to Harry Potter this year is the crowd's reaction to 3D technology when available. When news spreads of the 3D a film has, that makes the theater less special and the IMAX as the place to be since people 'experience' the movie.

Thus, you had the IMAX showings selling out, but that money has to take time to accumulate due to the majority of people opting to go to the IMAX version rather than the normal theatrical release version. Thus, the money that IMAX was recieving not necessarily showing up in the weekly totals- rather showing it's face when all was said and done.

In other words, Harry Potter may be hard to judge in how it is doing until the final domestic total comes in. That does not mean to say it will disappoint, like yes- SR did. It just means to say that the money may accumulate slower than it would if it did not have that 3D release.

The reason why these two are going to probably play out similarly is- whereas SR had select action scenes in 3D, HP has a full twenty minutes of it's finale in 3D.

 

[DarthAlani]

It will do at least wotw numbers.My prediction 235-300 mil.

 

[Advanced Dark]

No way in hell. I guess your low number of 235 is remotely possible but with Pixar, Die Hard, FF holdovers, and Harry Potter expect a massive second weekend drop. 70% like.

 

[The Kid]

heh, I think this movie's a sleeping giant. It's going to be a massive friggin ridiculous hit and wash all these movies we've seen so far from our memories. I'm that confident now.

I've said it for months that the edge this flick has is that it's not a sequel and I truly think that'll pay off big.

 

[CFlash]

Some of you folks aren't taking critical reviews into account. For better or for worse, critics DO have an influence on the box office... and Michael Bay is almost universally hated by critics. No movie of his has ever gotten good reviews. It didn't so much matter in the overhype "blockbuster" 90's, but I'm not so sure he can get away with such bad reviews today.

 

[Tempest19]

Hmm, POTC3, SM3 were hated by critics- are going to the be the two films this summer!

Last summer, let's see here, POTC2 was loathed and highly rejected by critics and went on to make millions and became number one of last summer.

Reviews, reviews.... don't mean ****. Lol.

Nice try though, but I have history backing me up on this one.

 

[Overman27pj]

All I know is that will get my $10 AT LEAST 3 times, and probably more.

 

[Jdef]

Some of you folks aren't taking critical reviews into account. For better or for worse, critics DO have an influence on the box office... and Michael Bay is almost universally hated by critics. No movie of his has ever gotten good reviews. It didn't so much matter in the overhype "blockbuster" 90's, but I'm not so sure he can get away with such bad reviews today.

All of the 3's this year got mediocre reviews (Spidey, POTC,and Shrek) now granted these we're established franchises. I think it goes to show however, that if people have it in their heads to see something, they'll go regardless of what critics say. Based on some of this footage being shown as of late, it's very possible people are marking their calendars.

 

[mMark]

Top 10 in history for your reference (in million us dollars):

1 Titanic (1997) | $600 (NA) $1244 (Overseas)
2 The Lord of the Rings：The Return of the King (2003) | $377 (NA) $742 (Overseas)
3 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) | $317 (NA) $659 (Overseas)
4 The Lord of the Rings：The Two Towers (2002) | $342 (NA) $584 (Overseas)
5 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999) | $410 (NA) $493 (Overseas)
6 Shrek 2 (2004) | $441 (NA) $479 (Overseas)
7 Jurassic Park (1993) | $357 (NA) $557 (Overseas)
8 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005) | $290 (NA) $602 (Overseas)
9 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002) | $262 (NA) $614 (Overseas)
10 - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001) | $314 (NA) $557 (Overseas)



What's your forecast for TF?

 

[Jdef]

TF will not knock anything off of that list. Should make top 100 without too much of a problem

 

[mMark]

I saw a chance to get close to No. 9 or 10 on that list.

 

[Jdef]

I see Transformers making in the 400-600 million dollar range worldwide. I would be pleasantly surprised to see it make in that 800 million upper tier.

 

[CFlash]

Hmm, POTC3, SM3 were hated by critics- are going to the be the two films this summer!

Last summer, let's see here, POTC2 was loathed and highly rejected by critics and went on to make millions and became number one of last summer.

Reviews, reviews.... don't mean ****. Lol.

Nice try though, but I have history backing me up on this one.

Loathed? Not really. POTC2 had 54% rating on rottentomatoes and B- avg critics review in Yahoo. Contrast that to Michael Bay movies which get 25% and C- reviews consistently. THAT's what I meant.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Transformers shouldn't break any records since it's opening 1.5 days early. At least it won't break the Fri-Sun record...or it'll have a very difficult time doing so. The early showings will dilute it. This is not Spidey or Pirates either so Die Hard is gonna take some away...quite a bit away actually.

 

[Cth]

Interesting that you quote Yahoo Movies..

Let's look at the stats:

The Island (2005)
C+ (15 critics)
B (20318 regular viewers)

Bad Boys II (2003)
C- (15 critics)
B- (54962 regular viewers)

Pearl Harbor (2001)
N/A (0 critics)
B (34981 regular viewers)

Armageddon (1998)
C- (9 critics)
B (127551 regular viewers)

The Rock (1996)
N/A (0 critics)
B (27384 regular viewers)

Bad Boys (1995)
C (8 critics)
B (10611 regular viewers)

Consistently getting a B from the average movie goer.

I'd imagine if you look at the reviews, we might see a pattern of critics who have decided ahead of time they don't like a film because of a director.

When it all boils down to it, it's the people who fill the seats.

Critics' opinions matter more off season.. people go to summer blockbusters just to go.. because of vacation and the kids being out of school. The question is, do they wait for the DVD or not. A film like this usually causes people to show up to see it at least once for the sheer level of detail.

 

[CFlash]

Interesting that you quote Yahoo Movies..

Let's look at the stats:

The Island (2005)
C+ (15 critics)
B (20318 regular viewers)

Bad Boys II (2003)
C- (15 critics)
B- (54962 regular viewers)

Pearl Harbor (2001)
N/A (0 critics)
B (34981 regular viewers)

Armageddon (1998)
C- (9 critics)
B (127551 regular viewers)

The Rock (1996)
N/A (0 critics)
B (27384 regular viewers)

Bad Boys (1995)
C (8 critics)
B (10611 regular viewers)

Consistently getting a B from the average movie goer.

I'd imagine if you look at the reviews, we might see a pattern of critics who have decided ahead of time they don't like a film because of a director.

When it all boils down to it, it's the people who fill the seats.

Critics' opinions matter more off season.. people go to summer blockbusters just to go.. because of vacation and the kids being out of school. The question is, do they wait for the DVD or not. A film like this usually causes people to show up to see it at least once for the sheer level of detail.

Users who take the time to visit and vote at Yahoo movies routine give grades higher than critics. Even movies that flop. So that's by no means a good indicator.

But I agree to an extent with your last paragraph. I'm not saying critics are the main driving force here..... I'm only saying that I think they matter more nowdays than they did in the overhype blockbuster 90's when they seemed to not to matter at all.

I really don't know... but when was the last time a movie got 25% (as all Bay's movies seem to have) in Rotten Tomatoes and STILL done phenomallly at the box office? I'm literally asking cuz I don't know.