I agree. The smart thing to do would be to offer him a two or three year contract. His agent probably would get huffy and shop him around if they offered him that, but I don't think anyone else would take him....at least not as a starter. To do what the Eagles did with Michael Vick and give him a long term, expensive contract wouldn't be smart, IMO.
Where the Niners should bend when attempting to get him to sign a short term contract is incentive bonuses. X amount for hitting certain milestones. That way, if he is a bust, no problem, they didn't spend much or make a long term investment. If he is successful, then they can lock him down and he will still get paid.
Yeah, that does make the most sense. He would be stupid to jump ship to another team. The big argument in Smith's favor year-after-year has been that he's had no consistency with his coaching staff. To leave after working with with a staff that he's had success with would be foolish.
However, given the dearth of talent at QB on so many teams around the league, I could see some team offering him a sweet deal.
Ring. Ring. Ring.
Alex Smith: Hello?
Dan Snyder: Hi, Alex? Hey, it's Dan! Dan Snyder! Congrats on all your success this year in San Fran!
Smith: Thank you very much, Mr. Snyder. Yeah, I can hardly believe it myself sometimes. So, what can I do for you?
Snyder: Just curious... you're in the last year of your contract, right? The Niners offered you anything new yet?
Smith: Well, we've been discussing a two-year deal with some incentives based on performance.
Snyder: Uh huh. Hmmm. Sounds a bit like chump change to me, don't ya think?
Smith: Well... look, even I'll admit that I've had a few bad years here. Now that we've got something that works, if we can keep it going...
Snyder: Yeah, yeah, yeah. How does a $178 million, Eight-year deal sound?!!
Smith: Uh... well, I mean... um...
Snyder: Okay, $250 million, 10 years! And your own private yacht!
Smith: Wow. Geez... That's really awesome, thank you. But...
Snyder: Okay, final offer. $300 million, 15 years, the yacht, a Ferrari and a team of rabid lawyers willing to sue anyone in the Washington sports media who dares to talk sh** on you!
Smith: Listen, Mr. Snyder. I really appreciate it. I do. That's a very generous offer. But signing that deal would mean I'd be the quarterback of the Redskins. I mean... seriously, the Redskins. It would mean having to deal with... um... you. I think I'd rather join the UFL than subject myself to that.