2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[Ultimatehero]

If the ending is as fans have predicted, I'd hope not, we could see a popularity along the lines of:

Spoiler

Which I found kinda difficult and sad to read, but interesting at the same time. Basically if it's 'The Death of Batman' it'll do big business despite being somber in tone - that controversy would draw the crowds in. Many wouldn't like it. Many will complain. But few will not go just to see it. And some may even go second times to see if they really saw it end like that.

 

[terry78]

Until it wins some kind of Oscar or BAFTA, it will be viewed as superhero material. Those awards may not technically mean ****, but in the mainstream's eyes, it does.

 

[dark_b]

Until it wins some kind of Oscar or BAFTA, it will be viewed as superhero material. Those awards may not technically mean ****, but in the mainstream's eyes, it does.

i read somewhere that if a movie makes 1 billion that the GA liked it. i also read somewhere that the public doesnt give a s.... about the oscars

 

[DACrowe]

I wonder if people even see the Batman stuff as Superhero material any longer. It may just come off as a crime thriller meets james bond tech(complete with a black Q). It's a good thing Marvel is around to serve up an alternative take.

I've honestly always championed this approach. The first Xmen had it, the first blade had it. Just a genre film that happened to have superhero's in it. Not that the alternative when done well is any less entertaining.

Green Lantern aside, it would be pretty neat if DC took this approach in the coming battle with the now solidified Marvel Studios. Let's see where Superman goes. If watchmen and bats are any indication I'd say things should get interesting.

But TDKR doesn't even look that much like a crime film to me. Lots of people want to compare TDK to Heat or The Departed or The Wire, but TDKR looks something more akin to Children of Men to me in tone. It looks biblical or at least allegorical in tone.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

With the final trailer released (truly EPIC; one of the best I have ever seen), I can't help but feel that a certain crowd (no, not Marvel Fanboys and Anti-Nolanites) will avoid this 'darker' installment. Therefore, The Avengers should outgross TDKR but not before it shatters most of records set by The Avengers.

I'm predicting TDKR will make 860 million, at the most. I don't see it making one billion.

 

[DACrowe]

Until it wins some kind of Oscar or BAFTA, it will be viewed as superhero material. Those awards may not technically mean ****, but in the mainstream's eyes, it does.

Heath Ledger swept the Oscars, BAFTAs, Globes, etc. a few years ago.

 

[EML420]

The tone of the TDR looks suicidal compared to almost any other comic book movie but man I cant wait for it.

 

[Marvin]

With the final trailer released (truly EPIC; one of the best I have ever seen), I can't help but feel that a certain crowd (no, not Marvel Fanboys and Anti-Nolanites) will avoid this 'darker' installment. Therefore, The Avengers should outgross TDKR but not before it shatters most of records set by The Avengers.

I'm predicting TDKR will make 860 million, at the most. I don't see it making one billion.

I tend to agree, as dark as TDK was, the joker was at least colourful. I think 900 mill is the ceiling. Let's not forget it's got some stiffer competition this time out.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

So, I was watching TDKR trailer and for me it's truly epic. It looks like a great film that is barely even of the superhero genre. I could gush and gush about it (which sadly has made my excitement for TA this weekend almost vanish), but I was thinking....

Could this movie be too dark or rather too somber and meditative for a good swath of the mainstream audience? At this point it is impossible to tell whether it will be actually better than TDK, however the trailer seems to indicate that it will most definitely be darker. TDK was a very serious superhero movie, but it also had moments of levity and summer blockbuster goofy joy (the entire car chase in the middle of the movie that ends with a truck flip and Batman flipping his motorcycle or pretty much all of the Joker's scenes). TDKR looks much more like an opus. Bane is clearly not going to be as fun as Joker (nor should he be) and the tone is almost nihilistic.

This won't effect OW, but I honestly think it could turn off some people if it's as morose as the latest trailer. That could be the factor to keep it from crossing $500 million domestic like TDK or being as beloved. Just a hunch I have.

Same question was asked by many four years ago, including myself, as the lighter, funner Iron Man was dominating and everyone was loving up on it. Don't see how it will be any different now. History will repeat itself.

 

[The Shape]

I think some folks are forgetting that Batman is so much more world-renowned, famous, and more of a pop culture icon than any of the heroes in The Avengers. This fact alone puts TDKR at an advantage. Then there's the fact that TDK was a landmark film and a monumental success and TDKR looks to be just as good if not better. The anticipation is staggering. Maybe it doesn't seem like that right now with another huge film dropping this week, but next month and into July, we will definitely be seeing Batmania all over the world.


I think $1B is a lock for TDKR and that's a low estimate.

 

[Marvin]

i read somewhere that if a movie makes 1 billion that the GA liked it. i also read somewhere that the public doesnt give a s.... about the oscars

Looking at Fast Five's performance I'd definitely say if a film makes 1bill then many people liked it and many of them liked it twice.

 

[DACrowe]

Overlooking the Ledger aspect, TDK had the Joker who is a very crowd pleasing villain and it promised a sense of mischief and fun its marketing (like the upbeat music cut to the Joker applauding and Morgan Freeman saying, "Now that's more like it."). This movie looks overbearingly dark.

Don't get me wrong, I love that. But I could see it being more of an issue for audiences who want a summer spectacle more than the last one.

 

[Marvin]

but will it break avengers itunes trailer record...

 

[The Shape]

but will it break avengers itunes trailer record...

Since it didn't debut on iTunes, who knows and who cares...

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Overlooking the Ledger aspect, TDK had the Joker who is a very crowd pleasing villain and it promised a sense of mischief and fun its marketing (like the upbeat music cut to the Joker applauding and Morgan Freeman saying, "Now that's more like it."). This movie looks overbearingly dark.

Don't get me wrong, I love that. But I could see it being more of an issue for audiences who want a summer spectacle more than the last one.

General public knows Batman is a dark character set in a dark environment, and yet little kids still get taken to see the latest movie. Won't matter unless this reaches Batman Returns level of sadism and that will not happen.

Seriously doubt Warner Brothers would let anyone, yeah even Nolan, make an incredibly dark Batman movie where he loses/dies at the end. This is marketing at work, folks.

 

[Iceman]

With the final trailer released (truly EPIC; one of the best I have ever seen), I can't help but feel that a certain crowd (no, not Marvel Fanboys and Anti-Nolanites) will avoid this 'darker' installment. Therefore, The Avengers should outgross TDKR but not before it shatters most of records set by The Avengers.

I'm predicting TDKR will make 860 million, at the most. I don't see it making one billion.

Why are Marvel fans going to avoid TDKR? They don't like awesome?

 

[CConn]

Why are Marvel fans going to avoid TDKR? They don't like awesome?

He said not marvel fans.

 

[DACrowe]

I don't even think Batman has to die at the end (I've said since the first teaser that they're going for the The Dark Knight Returns styled ending where he fakes his death and goes underground with Selina) for it to be too dark for the mainstream. He didn't die at the end of Batman Returns, and as you pointed out that was rejected by families and made less than either B'89 or BF. However, that was because of Burton's penchant for grotesque imagery with the Penguin and the nihilistic ending.

This trailer also kind of seeps nihilism to me. It looks like the world is ending. There is no hope in it. Batman is clearly going to get ****ed up bad at some point in the film. I'm not against this and I do think it will make BOFFO ($450 million domestic, over $900 million WW and taking the OW record), I just think it's approach may alienate some viewers. Enough so as to keep it from reaching TDK numbers.

I hope that I am wrong, of course.

 

[Marvin]

Since it didn't debut on iTunes, who knows and who cares...

I was kidding...
But now that you mention that I am reminded about how big a deal it seemed to be a few months back.

 

[Iceman]

but will it break avengers itunes trailer record...

Lol who cares about that. I'll say now I expect both to make $1BN (with a good portion of that coming from overseas) & I don't care who comes out on top. If it happens it will be a big statement about comic book films and due to coming out within months of each other will highlight that both dark serious films & action based blockbusters can work for these kind of properties.

 

[Iceman]

He said not marvel fans.

Yes, apologies Doomsday.

 

[CConn]

I don't even think Batman has to die at the end (I've said since the first teaser that they're going for the The Dark Knight Returns styled ending where he fakes his death and goes underground with Selina) for it to be too dark for the mainstream. He didn't die at the end of Batman Returns, and as you pointed out that was rejected by families and made less than either B'89 or BF. However, that was because of Burton's penchant for grotesque imagery with the Penguin and the nihilistic ending.

This trailer also kind of seeps nihilism to me. It looks like the world is ending. There is no hope in it. Batman is clearly going to get ****ed up bad at some point in the film. I'm not against this and I do think it will make BOFFO ($450 million domestic, over $900 million WW and taking the OW record), I just think it's approach may alienate some viewers. Enough so as to keep it from reaching TDK numbers.

I hope that I am wrong, of course.

I dunno, the GA is becoming more and more accepting of nihilistic movies. 30 years ago, Empire Strikes Back was the worst Star Wars movie because the bad guys won, now people clamored to see the bad guys win in ROTS. And no one ever complained when the LOTR or Harry Potter movies ended on sour notes.

And personally, for me, the nihilistic feel is actually making me more existed for TDKR. It adds a sense of tension of mystery that isn't present in movies where you KNOW the good guys will win in the end.

 

[dark_b]

TDKR is not going to have a negative ending. its the last movie. it will be 100% positive crowd pleasing ending.

 

[Iceman]

I dunno, the GA is becoming more and more accepting of nihilistic movies. 30 years ago, Empire Strikes Back was the worst Star Wars movie because the bad guys won, now people clamored to see the bad guys win in ROTS. And no one ever complained when the LOTR or Harry Potter movies ended on sour notes.

And personally, for me, the nihilistic feel is actually making me more existed for TDKR. It adds a sense of tension of mystery that isn't present in movies where you KNOW the good guys will win in the end.

Agreed. TDK already took a lot of big risks (that paid off) and it's a pretty dark film itself so I think people know to expect something even worse from the final film. It's an obvious escalation which means more bodies and we've already had an important character death. I don't see this nature of TDKR turning regular people away.

 

[terry78]

I can't wait to see all the toy tie-ins for this one.