2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[mclay18]

$175M 3-day for The Avengers.

We have a new champion!

Wow. Now The Avengers will definitely close with north of $400M domestic and $1B worldwide.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

$400M is a lock at this juncture.

 

[terry78]

Opening it earlier did set a good precedent I confess. Small price to pay for Disney/Marvel to start out on the right foot.

 

[rashad]

Tremendous accomplishment. 400M plus is all but assured at this rate.

 

[CConn]

Wait, how do you have its weekend numbers already?

 

[Iceman]

$175M 3-day for The Avengers.

We have a new champion!

Great! It needed that to have a shot at $500m. I think at least no.4 (if not 3) on the all time worldwide list is looking likely now.

 

[chaseter]

It won't make 500 million domestic....sorry.

 

[mclay18]

$400M is a lock at this juncture.

Absolutely. But how much, exactly? I think it could get to $475M if it holds well.

 

[:eek:]

Boxoffice.com is projecting $185 million for the weekend:

Saturday Update: With $80.5 million in the bank on Friday, The Avengers is poised to top the $169.2 million opening weekend record set by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 last July. We are projecting $185 million by the end of the weekend.


As I said before, it probably won't be long until we see a $200 million opening weekend.

 

[CConn]

Considering Avengers only ranked like 8th all time for a midnight opening, I'm kinda surprised it would actually pass HP.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

As I said before, it probably won't be long until we see a $200 million opening weekend.

The Dark Knight Rises will get damn close.

 

[Iceman]

It won't make 500 million domestic....sorry.

The last time someone said sorry to me in a box office thread the film made $2BN more than the amount I was told was impossible

x3 multipliers are very difficult for films that open this big but possible depending on competition and reception. Both of those are strongly in Avengers' favour so the chance is there.

 

[Iceman]

Considering Avengers only ranked like 8th all time for a midnight opening, I'm kinda surprised it would actually pass HP.

Midnight figures aren't that good an indicator to me. Only a certain portion of the population ever goes to midnight showings so your midnight takings are influenced too heavily by the demographics of your primary target market. The opening weekend gives every type of person a chance to see it at the time convenient for them.

 

[:eek:]

The Dark Knight Rises will get damn close.

It's been a crazy year so far And if TDKR opens with $200 million and becomes the first movie not directed by James Cameron to reach $600 million I wouldn't be much surprised

It might not have Heath Ledger, but I have a feeling that most people who saw the last one wants to see this, since it's the final part in the trilogy. And ,who knows, since it's the final movie it might have an ending that will generate a lot of buzz. And it is after all four years since TDK made over $530 million domestically. So higher ticket prices and probably a bigger boost from IMAX might do it.

 

[CConn]

Midnight figures aren't that good an indicator to me. Only a certain portion of the population ever goes to midnight showings so your midnight takings are influenced too heavily by the demographics of your primary target market. The opening weekend gives every type of person a chance to see it at the time convenient for them.

Yeah, but I would've thought the target audience of Avengers would actually be more likely to see it at midnight than HP or Twilight.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, but I would've thought the target audience of Avengers would actually be more likely to see it at midnight than HP or Twilight.

Well no comic film has midnight audiences comparable to those films. I think it's the power of young women/girls at the box office that is making the difference as they haven't had films aimed at them before. Probably why Hunger Games also beat TA midnight figures. HP is top dog as it caters well to the full midnight demographic population.

 

[CConn]

That seems to be true.

Goddamn girls.

 

[Marvin]

The only thing that needs to happen now is these collective subsequent releases receiving very poor reviews and WOM.

Sorta like what happened with IronMan.

Is there even a film coming soon that's going to require or demand 3D screens? I recall this being a huge pain last year for films, especially during the GL through TF, HP, Captain(And animated films) run.

Another question is, how is the inclusion of TDKR trailer before Avengers affecting anything. Is it helping the numbers as some have said, is it stealing all of Avengers buzz as others have said. I personally hear nothing but Avengers talk at work and school by people coming out of TA.

 

[terry78]

Battleship is the only one I think. Dark Shadows ain't using it. But they're making sure to pimp the hell out of Battleship though...it has a lot of tie ins.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Dark Shadows is taking away IMAX but 3D is all Avengers until Men in Black 3.

 

[Marvin]

Dark Shadows is taking away IMAX but 3D is all Avengers until Men in Black 3.

Executives at Marvel/Disney are all going to be happily keeping their jobs after this one. Excellent decisions all around(Starting with Whedon).
Disney's live action division has been having a rough go at it since and before Tron.

Right about now there is one WB executive considering suggesting post converting TDKR lol. He wants to be the hero.

 

[:eek:]

Saturday Update: Disney reports that The Avengers took in $30.3 million internationally on Friday, pushing its international cume to $334.3 million. The worldwide total is currently $414.8 million.

 

[terry78]

I suspect they will put Whedon in a "godfather" position a la Nolan after this. His past Marvel experience alone may persuade them along with the cash this thing is raking in. Feige, Kyle, Yost and the rest are doing ok, but they want somebody they can stick in news articles like Nolan.

 

[Marvin]

I suspect they will put Whedon in a "godfather" position a la Nolan after this. His past Marvel experience alone may persuade them along with the cash this thing is raking in. Feige, Kyle, Yost and the rest are doing ok, but they want somebody they can stick in news articles like Nolan.

Honestly couldn't see this working out as well as it has without Whedon. The culmination factor is only a "factor" in what's going on right now. More than anything it's the quality that's really driving buzz. (Similar things happened with TDK).

Keep him around, for god's sake.

 

[CConn]

I dunno. We all thought Favreau had the same clout with IM, and they still ditched him.