2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[kedrell]

There won't be any "Godfather" position for Whedon because he was basically another hired-gun doing what his bosses upstairs told him to do like all the other Marvel Studios directors. Not taking away from the good dialogue and character beats, but this wasn't like say a Nolan, Raimi or Singer whose had a singular vision.

Marvel Studios already has it's "Godfather" position. It's currently occupied by Kevin Fiege.

 

[Iceman]

It won't make $500 domestic. $400 looks to be a lock but $500 is just way too much. This should dominate the box office for the next couple of weeks though. I think it will beat Dark Shadows, The Dictator and Battleship. But, that third weekend it will be toppled.

It should best $1 billion WW though.

If it makes $500 domestic then I will be overly excited but I just don't think it can do it.

By its 3rd weekend TDK made almost $400m.

TDK also had a multiplier of 3.37, SM3 2.23. If the OW is confirmed at $175m, Avengers will need a 2.86 multiplier to get to $500m. It just depends how harshly it drops, closer to SM3 or TDK. If it's a bit better than halfway between the two (which I think is a possibility given the fan reactions and limited competition as you say above) it will get to $500m, if not it won't.

 

[Iceman]

I didn't get Spiderman or The Hobbit on my first two viewings of this, hell I didn't get Batman the first time. I got ****ing Frankenweenie and Brave along with Battleship. Stupid. They're were some big groans in my theater when our last preview was Brave.

I had Prometheus, Spider-man, Brave, Snow White, Dark Shadows & Expendables 2. Liked all the trailers but no DKR

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I had Prometheus, Spider-man, Brave, Snow White, Dark Shadows & Expendables 2. Liked all the trailers but no DKR

Ouch! I hope that doesn't happen to me tonight.

 

[kedrell]

I had Frankenweenie, Prometheus, ASM, Brave, TDKR, Expendables 2, and Battleship. Expendables 2 got the biggest reactions(mostly seeing Arnold).

 

[Doctor Jones]

We got more trailers. Despite it being Disney, Frankenweenie getting the last trailer was odd.

 

[jacobed]

I got Frankenweinie, Paranorman, and Brave. They all looked bad

 

[Doctor Jones]

But... they all look good?

 

[chaseter]

By its 3rd weekend TDK made almost $400m.

TDK also had a multiplier of 3.37, SM3 2.23. If the OW is confirmed at $175m, Avengers will need a 2.86 multiplier to get to $500m. It just depends how harshly it drops, closer to SM3 or TDK. If it's a bit better than halfway between the two (which I think is a possibility given the fan reactions and limited competition as you say above) it will get to $500m, if not it won't.

TDK also had amazing legs with drops in the 30s and even did better it's 8th weekend than the weekend before. TDK had amazing legs. TDK was just a perfect storm of craziness. This can't have a drop of more than 55% next weekend if it's going to cross $500 million and I think it will have around 60% drop next weekend. I think it's going to be pretty front loaded but hold onto next weekend with probably around $60 million....which is still damn good. there is just no way this is going to have $80 million next weekend.

 

[Marvin]

Batman faces comp this summer the likes of which 2008 would surely have taken notice of.

 

[The Morningstar]

I don't see why people think Avengers will have a big drop. It's critically acclaimed, but more importantly, the crowd/audience reactions are just... ridiculous. Average movie goers will be seeing this multiple times, not just comic fans.

I think it'll do 450-500 US. 650-700 INT.

 

[Iceman]

TDK also had amazing legs with drops in the 30s and even did better it's 8th weekend than the weekend before. TDK had amazing legs. TDK was just a perfect storm of craziness. This can't have a drop of more than 55% next weekend if it's going to cross $500 million and I think it will have around 60% drop next weekend. I think it's going to be pretty front loaded but hold onto next weekend with probably around $60 million....which is still damn good. there is just no way this is going to have $80 million next weekend.

Yep TDK had great legs for such a big-opening film. Next weekend we'll know just how big this is going to be. The weekdays will also give a clue as TDK did amazingly in its 1st week weekdays. How much do you expect Avengers to make final gross roughly?

 

[TheComicbookKid]

I don't see why people think Avengers will have a big drop. It's critically acclaimed, but more importantly, the crowd/audience reactions are just... ridiculous. Average movie goers will be seeing this multiple times, not just comic fans.

I think it'll do 450-500 US. 650-700 INT.

Unless one of the other big May movies fails, then I think AVENGER's legs will be cut from under it.

 

[The Morningstar]

You kidding me? By what? Dark Shadows? Battleship? No chance. None of those movies are anything to Avengers. Dark Shadows is a completely different demographic and Battleship is a poor mans Transformers, which means it's a diseased vagrant version of Avengers. MiB3? Remains to be seen. But is Will Smith and the MiB name even relevant any more?

Like i said, the crowd reactions are ridiculous. People will be choosing Avengers over at least 2 of those movies all day every day.

 

[Chewy]

Unless one of the other big May movies fails, then I think AVENGER's legs will be cut from under it.

You have that backwards.

Avengers is going to steamroll everything in its path

 

[kedrell]

TA will pass THG WW somewhere between tomorrow and wednesday at the latest to become the #1 movie of 2012.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

You kidding me? By what? Dark Shadows? Battleship? No chance. None of those movies are anything to Avengers. Dark Shadows is a completely different demographic and Battleship is a poor mans Transformers, which means it's a diseased vagrant version of Avengers. MiB3? Remains to be seen. But is Will Smith and the MiB name even relevant any more?

Like i said, the crowd reactions are ridiculous. People will be choosing Avengers over at least 2 of those movies all day every day.

You have that backwards.

Avengers is going to steamroll everything in its path

You're really going to doubt Tim "Alice in Wonderland" Burton and Johnny "POTC" Depp?

Even their failures are enough to put a dent in Avengers Box office.

 

[Iceman]

Unless one of the other big May movies fails, then I think AVENGER's legs will be cut from under it.

If Dark Shadows succeeds it shouldn't affect Avengers that much as they aren't very similar movies. Battleship is though but its positives looks like a very obvious subset of Avengers. I can't see a massive percentage of the population seeing Battleship unless they've already seen Avengers. Men in Black is coming 3 weeks after Avengers opens by when it will have made most of its money and there is also no guarantee yet that it will be any good.

 

[The Morningstar]

You're really going to doubt Tim "Alice in Wonderland" Burton and Johnny "POTC" Depp?

Even their failures are enough to put a dent in Avengers Box office.

It will put a dent in it of course. But cut it's legs out from under it? No chance.

Teenagers and men and kids will choose Avengers every time over Dark Shadows. And honestly, Dark Shadows doesn't even seem to have that Burton/Depp charm. Alice in Wonderland was bizarre and surreal, not to mention it's an iconic story anyway.

Dark Shadows? Not so much. It looks like watered down Burton to me.

 

[Iceman]

Dark Shadows looks fine to me, but it's pretty standard week 2 competition for summer. Nothing that an opening weekend record breaking film in a different genre should be getting overly concerned about. Now if Avengers itself was also a quirky Burton Depp collaboration it might have had a reason to worry.

 

[Chewy]

You're really going to doubt Tim "Alice in Wonderland" Burton and Johnny "POTC" Depp?

Even their failures are enough to put a dent in Avengers Box office.

This is not AIW Burton/Depp. This is Sweeney Todd Burton/Depp. Completely different beast.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I don't see why people think Avengers will have a big drop. It's critically acclaimed, but more importantly, the crowd/audience reactions are just... ridiculous. Average movie goers will be seeing this multiple times, not just comic fans.

I think it'll do 450-500 US. 650-700 INT.

You kidding me? By what? Dark Shadows? Battleship? No chance. None of those movies are anything to Avengers. Dark Shadows is a completely different demographic and Battleship is a poor mans Transformers, which means it's a diseased vagrant version of Avengers. MiB3? Remains to be seen. But is Will Smith and the MiB name even relevant any more?

Like i said, the crowd reactions are ridiculous. People will be choosing Avengers over at least 2 of those movies all day every day.

lmao

Morningstar wins the thread.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I really thought it was Battleship that The Avengers had to worry about but, up until recently, I hadn't given much thought to MIB3. Now, I had my reasons (the trailers were horrid) but good buzz is slowly traveling around the net from the advance screenings.

Given if the movie is indeed hilarious and an improvement from MIB2 (adding Big Willy's star power), then I see The Avengers finally falling to second place in Week Three.

 

[The Morningstar]

haha thanks.

 

[Mikelus]

Someone could've made an awesome Spider-Man 3 still utilizing Harry and Venom. And maybe even Sandman. Nolan was able to pull off having 2-3 villains in his Batman movies just fine.

It wasn't the studio's fault that the movie was mediocre, it was Raimi's.

Is not a fair comparison at all, Nolan made the film he really wanted to make. If Sony had respected Raimi's vision, the movie would've been better.

Back on topic, I won't be surprised if Avengers reaches $600 in the US.