2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

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I'm of the mind that TDK is the most rewatchable superhero film. That may because I can still taste the suspense and edge off the way it's edited, shot, acted and scored. It's just still a rollercoaster that has a lot of subtext to dissect and think about. Between being sensationally entertaining and intellectually stimulating, it's always fun to revisit.

I predict The Avengers will have the same fate as Raimi's first two Spideys. Fans will buy all the DVDs/Blu-Rays and then a year or so later turn on it because they don't get the goofy high from it anymore. TA is a popcorn flick. A great one. But still a popcorn flick that doesn't necessarily reward numerous viewings of it. It's also 2.5 hours long and has a very slow First Act and several action sequences that go on rather long. While great to see the first few times, it is going to become less rewarding after watching it a half dozen times. I expect there to be a big backlash to the film.
 
I despise the fact that people think they can literally compare TDK/TDKR to Avengers. Just because a film is DEEPER symbolically and thematically doesn't mean it is better than other blockbusters.

Was Raiders deep? Was Star Wars deep? Was Terminator 2 deep? Are they still deep today?

They are extremely entertaining and fun exhilarating films that are memorable and remembered today. They don't have thematic and symbolic subtleties in every scene but they have great charismatic, memorable, and cinematic characters with great action sequences. The stories may not be real DEEP like TDK or TDKR may possibly be but they perfect what they set out to do!

Avengers has all the great qualities of a memorable fun summer blockbuster and it WILL be talked about like the greats of the 20th century are today. It proved that movies don't have to be DARK, GRITTY, GLOOMY, and MIND BLOWINGLY DEEP to be successful with audiences and critics alike. Both types of blockbusters can coexist and make for amazing cinematic films.

It's like ****ing apples and oranges to compare. It's great to see the success that Avengers is having because maybe, just ****ing maybe...Hollywood will realize we need more movies like it. I'm not taking anything away from Nolan's Batman films and I love them to death. They are some of the best movies of the last 10 years but that doesn't mean that is the only way to make a great film.

Avengers succeeds where most blockbusters that try to be fun, exciting, emotional, and memorable fail in the old fashioned way.
 
Well said. Avengers is in the mold of those types of films. And if you have a problem with that, or think that makes it a lesser film, then you must think those films are lesser films, which means you're wrong.

Will Avengers have as much lasting appeal as those films? Who knows, it's still up in the air at this point.

But the fact is, it's a high quality summer blockbuster, with great writing, in terms of characterisation and dialogue, imaginative and well executed action scenes, superb acting and most importantly for me, tons and tons of heart.

Also, it does what all good films should do, focus on the smallest details. Some of which can be missed on the first viewing, that makes repeat viewings rewarding.
 
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Avengers was more in the moment and it was more celebratory, but the thing about the first x film is the build and expositional quality. Part ones of things such as the matrix/ninja turtles always have this. I can watch X1 in it's entirety because of this. Avengers to me is just moments I remember.

We're just going to have to agree to disagree I love the buildup in Avengers, and I love the way they reintroduced you to each character in the movie, and then bringing them all together. Scenes like Black Widow and Banner, Captain America and Coulson, The Helicarier for the first time, and Captain America meeting Iron Man and the latter fighting Thor we're very exciting moments to me.

I can't wait until TDKR releases and outgrosses TDK so that we can finally be done with these utterly idiotic "TDK made so much money because of Heath Ledger's death". No single celebrity on earth, alive or dead, is big enough to bring a billion dollars. Even if Ledger was alive, TDK would have easily made at least 950 million dollars without a doubt. What some people can't get into their noggins is the simple fact that one of the main reasons why TDK made so much money was because it was so damn good - the word of mouth for it was absolutely amazing. Critics, TV anchors, news shows, the general audience...whoever talked about touted it as the must-see film of the summer. Yes, Ledger's Joker was part of that equation but one must be a complete idiot to think it didn't have anything to do with the film's unexpectedly complex plot, its dark and mature themes, the performances of other actors and just the overall quality of the movie. Even now after The Avengers has made more than a billion dollars, TDK is still considered as the holy grail of superhero films because it is the one that elevated the genre, that showed that a superhero movie does not have to stick to tired old conventions of the summer blockbuster formula and that such films can have the caliber to make it to countless Critics and Guild awards' best-of-year nominations.

No matter how much money The Avengers makes, it won't force the Academy's hand to do something as historically unprecedented as expanding the number of Best Picture nominations, but TDK did. The Avengers won't make headline news at being "snubbed" at the Oscars, but TDK did. The Avengers won't get nominations from the Producers, Writers and Directors guild, but TDK did. If TDK is too dark or serious that people wouldn't want to watch it again and again, how the hell did it break home video sales records when it hit DVD and Blu-Ray? You think it managed to succeed on all those levels just because of one character/actor and that too one with screentime less than 1/5th of the film's overall runtime? Seriously?

I'm not doubting the effect of TDK. I love TDK, and it's one of the movies that really got me into the Superhero genre.

What I am saying, and DJ has said this too, is that (and I repeat with bold for the following statement) I do not think either should be compared. To me, just because they're in the same genre, does not mean they are the same type of movie. You wouldn't compare Star Wars and The Godfather, or Indiana Jones and Seven? To me, at the surface they may seem similar do to them having Superheroes (both ensemble in their own way) both aiming to stop a madman hell bent on destruction, but they couldn't be any more different.

One is a fun, escapist alien invasion movie that relies more on action and humor, and the other is a serious tone crime drama. It's hard to compare the two when both seek different emotional reactions from the audience, and both, for the most, part, succeed at that.

I'm of the mind that TDK is the most rewatchable superhero film. That may because I can still taste the suspense and edge off the way it's edited, shot, acted and scored. It's just still a rollercoaster that has a lot of subtext to dissect and think about. Between being sensationally entertaining and intellectually stimulating, it's always fun to revisit.

I predict The Avengers will have the same fate as Raimi's first two Spideys. Fans will buy all the DVDs/Blu-Rays and then a year or so later turn on it because they don't get the goofy high from it anymore. TA is a popcorn flick. A great one. But still a popcorn flick that doesn't necessarily reward numerous viewings of it. It's also 2.5 hours long and has a very slow First Act and several action sequences that go on rather long. While great to see the first few times, it is going to become less rewarding after watching it a half dozen times. I expect there to be a big backlash to the film.

Of course there is going to be a big backlash to the movie. There's been a huge backlash to every hit comic book movie. There's even been one for TDK.

I think you're right to say that the Avengers will go the way of Raimi's Spidey in terms of popularity. Spider-man was a breath of fresh air to the Superhero genre that made the genre a big deal again. Same with Iron Man and TDK in 2008. I say that The Avengers will once again breath life into the Superhero genre, along with TDKR. Both will once again show that the Superhero genre is more vast than it looks.

And I disagree about it being less rewarding, when there are more things about the movie, like TDK, that you pick up after repeat viewings, like Easter Eggs, and the subtext of The Avengers, as Raiden said, is being overlooked and downplayed as just another fun action movie. So I would have to say that you're wrong about it being popcorn movie that doesn't hold up after repeat viewings. Without necessarily comparing The Avengers to the series of movies, what would be your opinion on other genre popcorn movies like Star Wars, Raiders, Jurassic Park, Terminator 2?
 
Well said. Avengers is in the mold of those types of films. And if you have a problem with that, or think that makes it a lesser film, then you must think those films are lesser films, which means you're wrong.

Will Avengers have as much lasting appeal as those films? Who knows, it's still up in the air at this point.

But the fact is, it's a high quality summer blockbuster, with great writing, in terms of characterisation and dialogue, imaginative and well executed action scenes, superb acting and most importantly for me, tons and tons of heart.

Also, it does what all good films should do, focus on the smallest details. Some of which can be missed on the first viewing, that makes repeat viewings rewarding.

Welcome back, just right in time. :woot:
 
I don't recall anyone piling on The Avengers. Liking TDK better doesn't mean that The Avengers isn't good in its own right. But I find that there is a better story, stronger characters, and certainly more suspense in TDK. Even after seeing it many times, I am on the edge of my seat during the climatic standoff with Two-Face at the end of the movie. I was pulled into the movie in a way that doesn't happen very often. As much as I enjoyed the characters and action in The Avengers, there was nothing in it that had the same effect.

And yes, I think Raiders, Star Wars & T2 are all better than The Avengers as well. Again, I really enjoyed The Avengers but twenty years from now it will probably end up being the Independence Day to The Dark Knight's Jurassic Park.
 
Oh boy, this could get ugly quick. As much as I love TDK it's not the Holy Grail of superhero movies. It did not elevate the genre, it just showed what could be done with it just like TA did this summer. It's just a great movie that was executed quite well in a certain way while TA executed its movie quite well in their own way.

That can be said about The Avengers, that it perfected the standard superhero formula. The Avengers does not break the mold, it only made it stronger. However, prior to TDK, no superhero film had the balls to do what TDK did. It tore the rulebook on not only superhero films, but summer adaptations in general. It's a $180 million pitch black film that does not care for kid-friendliness. It kills off the only significant female character at the end of the second act. It does not have an 'explosive finale'. It is chock-filled with post-9/11 themes about terrorism, surveillance, torture, national sovereignty and so much more...hardly something that studios and filmmakers consider when making your typical feel-good summer action bonanza. It's final act is about innocent people being held hostage and being forced to choose their own life at the expense of executing criminals who despite being crooks, do not necessarily deserve to die. It ends with an ideological debate between the film's protagonist and antagonist and a three-way faceoff with the city's inspiration-turned-madman holding a whimpering child at gunpoint. And to add cherry on top of that cake, the final scene is about the hero and his accomplice conspiring to conceal the truth from the general public because the film's main villain won in the end.

Sure, this kind of stuff has been done in comic books before, but TDK was the first superhero film to pull it off on film and do it successfully. The risks TDK took was what helped get something like Watchmen off the ground, which had been languishing in development hell for years. The Avengers is not going to change the way Hollywood and the general audience thinks about superhero films. In a way, it did the exact opposite.
 
I'm not doubting the effect of TDK. I love TDK, and it's one of the movies that really got me into the Superhero genre.

What I am saying, and DJ has said this too, is that (and I repeat with bold for the following statement) I do not think either should be compared. To me, just because they're in the same genre, does not mean they are the same type of movie. You wouldn't compare Star Wars and The Godfather, or Indiana Jones and Seven? To me, at the surface they may seem similar do to them having Superheroes (both ensemble in their own way) both aiming to stop a madman hell bent on destruction, but they couldn't be any more different.

One is a fun, escapist alien invasion movie that relies more on action and humor, and the other is a serious tone crime drama. It's hard to compare the two when both seek different emotional reactions from the audience, and both, for the most, part, succeed at that.

I think I got a little off topic from my main point of that post, which was highlighting the absurdity in the logic of those who say that TDK succeed simply because of the Joker and/or Heath's death. Otherwise, yeah, my intention is not to compare the actual quality of the films. Both did different things, but we must also not forget that both had very different impacts as well.
 
You all can take your Avengers and Dark Knight and billion dollar movies Kick Ass is the greatest comic book movie ever.

Now how about that Battleship I predict it will take between 30-45 mill.
 
There are people on IMDB and other sites who do say that though and it does seem like they do it just to feel high and mighty concerning themselves.

It is hilarious.
 
I despise the fact that people think they can literally compare TDK/TDKR to Avengers. Just because a film is DEEPER symbolically and thematically doesn't mean it is better than other blockbusters.

Was Raiders deep? Was Star Wars deep? Was Terminator 2 deep? Are they still deep today?

They are extremely entertaining and fun exhilarating films that are memorable and remembered today. They don't have thematic and symbolic subtleties in every scene but they have great charismatic, memorable, and cinematic characters with great action sequences. The stories may not be real DEEP like TDK or TDKR may possibly be but they perfect what they set out to do!

Avengers has all the great qualities of a memorable fun summer blockbuster and it WILL be talked about like the greats of the 20th century are today. It proved that movies don't have to be DARK, GRITTY, GLOOMY, and MIND BLOWINGLY DEEP to be successful with audiences and critics alike. Both types of blockbusters can coexist and make for amazing cinematic films.

It's like ****ing apples and oranges to compare. It's great to see the success that Avengers is having because maybe, just ****ing maybe...Hollywood will realize we need more movies like it. I'm not taking anything away from Nolan's Batman films and I love them to death. They are some of the best movies of the last 10 years but that doesn't mean that is the only way to make a great film.

Avengers succeeds where most blockbusters that try to be fun, exciting, emotional, and memorable fail in the old fashioned way.

This, a thousand times this. The difference is that T2, SW, and Raiders are older films and has grown to be loved by nostalgia and older fans. So of course it's not gonna be questioned. Avengers is new. We'll see where Avengers is in years time. To say it will be Independence Day to TDK's Jurassic Park remains to be seen. That's a bias. And people love Independence Day anyway.

These examples of TDK having more suspense, etc, etc, are all subjective and preference.

Avengers is huge right now. My ddad who barely goes to the movies anymore wants to see it. Hell, my cheap ass friend saw it twice and and is asking about Thor and Captain America and wants to rent them (this has never happened before), one of my friends at college went from having no interest to wanting to see it, and everyone I know has pretty much seen it or wants to see it. Same with the GA. People who didn't see the other Marvel films are going out to see this and renting them afterwards. This sounds a lot like... TDK's impact to me.
 
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Calling it a mindless summer blockbuster is putting it down with Transformers.

Listen, well evidently, read, I can totally get why people prefer the likes of TDK over Avengers. But i don't think some people are giving Avengers the credit it deserves here.

I mean you want subtexts? Ok. You think Loki's "you crave subjugation" rant is in Germany by mere coincidence? Oh how SHIELD and the shadow council are using the Tesseract for nuclear proliferation?

Some could say those themes are not developed enough. That's their opinion. My opinion is... Whedon consciously doesn't develop them. He presents these elements, poses these questions, then moves on. He leaves it to the audience to decide if they want to think about those things, or if they wan... OMFG THOR IS FIGHTING HULK!
 
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And once again, I'm comparing The Avnegers to past genre Films in terms of who's better, but just providing an example of past genre films that are still held in high regard.
 
There are warnings on both the Batman forums and Avengers forums that we have limited patience for the TDKR vs. Avengers bickering.

This is a box office thread, let's keep it on topic.
 
Calling it a mindless summer blockbuster is putting it down with Transformers.

Listen, well evidently, read, I can totally get why people prefer the likes of TDK over Avengers. But i don't think some people are giving Avengers the credit it deserves here.

I mean you want subtexts? Ok. You think Loki's "you crave subjugation" rant is in Germany by mere coincidence? Oh how SHIELD and the shadow council are using the Tesseract for nuclear proliferation?

Some could say those themes are not developed enough. That's their opinion. My opinion is... Whedon consciously doesn't develop them. He presents these elements, poses these questions, then moves on. He leaves it to the audience to decide if they want to think about those things, or if they wan... OMFG THOR IS FIGHTING HULK!

It's the best thing Whedon could have done in this team up film. He balances everything perfectly. He really knew where to develop things in the right places.

But anyway, we should stay on topic. God knows we're gonna have plenty more on the weekend of July 20th. It's gonna get much, MUCH worse.
 
Okay, Danoyse, so back to Snow White and The Huntsman? I'm thinking $55-65 million opening.
 
Ok. Anyway, what is the tracking looking like for Prometheus? God i hope that film does well. I know it's Rated R, that might hurt, but i really want it to do at like, 500 million worldwide.
 
I don't even think it's gonna make that much. I said $38 mil OW domestic on the last page.
 
I agree with that opening for SW&H (probably closer to $50 million), it could finish around $150 million domestic if WOM is positive.
 
Ok. Anyway, what is the tracking looking like for Prometheus? God i hope that film does well. I know it's Rated R, that might hurt, but i really want it to do at like, 500 million worldwide.

I'm thinking it going to be around $170-200 million domestic, and Worldwide I think can reach past $300 million, so $500 million wouldn't be entirely impossible.
 
How does WW feel about horror sci fi? How big is the Alien franchise overseas? I don't think that big. I really can't see it being that big WW.
 
This, a thousand times this. The difference is that T2, SW, and Raiders are older films and has grown to be loved by nostalgia and older fans. So of course it's not gonna be questioned. Avengers is new. We'll see where Avengers is in years time. To say it will be Independence Day to TDK's Jurassic Park remains to be seen. That's a bias. And people love Independence Day anyway.

It isn't just nostalgia. T2 was very well thought of in its time, and both Star Wars and Raiders of the Lost Ark received Best Picture nominations back when they only nominated five films. George Lucas and Steven Spielberg also received Best Director noms for those films.
 
I don't even think it's gonna make that much. I said $38 mil OW domestic on the last page.

boxoffice.com has it tracking at $58 million now, and they're not usually way off, so I'm basing it arond them. I think it makes around $50 million, especially considering that it's in 3D.
 
I've got my tickets booked for the big IMAX in London. Biggest one in Europe or something! WHOOP! I'm hoping for an immense viewing experience. I don't think i've ever been so hyped for a movie. Ridley Scott doing sci-fi again. Some real, high concept sci-fi. He's revolutionised the genre twice already, let's hope he does it again! :D
 
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