2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[kedrell]

Whoever said that was a moron. I can't believe there were people who thought it wasn't going to do a billion. Desolation of Smaug won't hit a billion, if it does it'll be just over. Hobbit 1 barely made it.

Ah, but seeing the Dragon is the highlight of the series. That's what everyone is waiting for. That alone might make the 2nd film in that series the most watched/highest grosser.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Are you being sarcastic? t:

 

[kedrell]

Not at all. By highest grosser in the series I'm only referring to the 3 Hobbit films. The whole thing with the dragon is what people most want to see and that's happening in film #2 by all accounts.

 

[Marvin]

To be fair, hindsight is 20/20.

This time last year, most people were uncertain about The Avengers hitting a billion.

We're seeing/hearing the same about MoS.
Hindsight is going to be even funnier when it comes to that one.

I think MoS is going to out gross IM3 overall. And that will be a story of this summer.
if Im3 doesn't hit a billion that is.

Ah, but seeing the Dragon is the highlight of the series. That's what everyone is waiting for. That alone might make the 2nd film in that series the most watched/highest grosser.

I personally don't get the appeal. I mean people have seen dragons in this series before. I'm not all too familiar with the stories but it just seems like a kiddified more drawn out version of what came before but with far less stakes due to
1. the sheer scale of this story compared to lotr
2. as a prequel it suffers that we all know what happens by the end syndrom.

I'm sure it's going to be big, I just find that funny.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Not at all. By highest grosser in the series I'm only referring to the 3 Hobbit films. The whole thing with the dragon is what people most want to see and that's happening in film #2 by all accounts.

Well I'm certainly not a Hobbit expert so you could be correct.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Wonder what the 'Skyfall' of the year will be.

 

[GreenKToo]

Trek making more than Iron Man 3? Wat?

You did see the part where I said 2 through 4 were interchangeable? It Could be im hungergames then trek.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Wonder what the 'Skyfall' of the year will be.

I'm hoping MOS.

Anything over 800 m WW would be considered a break out.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Based purely off of how well their previous films did and giving them all a modest increase:

1. Iron Man 3 (1,511,757, 910)
2. Hobbit (1, 015, 557, 024)
3. Hunger Games (or Man of Steel) (691,247, 768)
4. Man of Steel (or Hunger Games) (wild card, might be lower)
5. Monsters University (or After Earth) (562, 566, 455 - adjusted around 662 mil)
6. After Earth (or Monsters University) (624.4 (Hancock) and 624 (MIB III))
7. The Smurfs 2 (or Despicable Me) (563, 749, 323)
8. Despicable Me (or The Smurfs 2) (543, 113, 985)
9. Thor: The Dark World (449, 326, 618)
10. Oz The Great and Powerful (will likely end around 450-500 mil)

Star Trek Into Darkness (385, 680, 446 --> I'm seeing a bump to at least 450 mil, also interchangable with Oz depending on where Oz winds up (at most I'm looking at 485 mill (Which would be a 100 mil bump!)

Reason 'Oblivion' didn't make it is other than Mission Impossible, Cruise's films lately haven't gotten over 261 mil worldwide. His name alone doesn't seem to be as big a box office appeal as it used to be. Rock of Ages - 56 mil. Jack Reacher - 216 mil. Valkryie - 200 mil. Etc. The genre might bump it up, I'd say figure around 350-400 mil at best. I wouldn't say it would be Mission Impossible level since that's the only Cruise film recently that did that well and is probably more due to Cruise and the brand new of the franchise.

My own top anticipated (out of purely this list, several are bumped down after 3 if it included others):

1. Man of Steel
2. Iron Man 3
3. Oz the Great and Powerful
4. Hobbit
5. Monsters University
6. Thor: The Dark World
7. After Earth
8. Hunger Games
9. The Smurfs 2
10. Despicable Me 2

So the above is based purely off of financial statistics and seeing a moderate to great bump in all of them. I would say The Smurfs 1 is on the same level as Alvin, while it's sequel will be the same dip in quality as the second one -- but still II raked in more money than I did with about a 800 mil increase.

I see all the sequels increasing and After Earth performing like your usual Will Smith summer blockbuster. Man of Steel is a wild card, but I don't see it performing better than where it currently is (which is saying it will make at least 700 mil or slightly higher worldwide, after SR that's a really good number.)

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Your predictions seem reasonable except for Thor 2 which should get at least a 75 m post-Avengers bump worldwide.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I didn't predict the numbers, I see all the numbers on there being higher than their predecessors -- the Thor number was from the first film as are the other numbers (except for Iron Man 3, that number is the Avengers - but also the film following immediately after the Avengers and the trailer always seems to get the most response (likely because of that)). Unless you mean its placement on there rising, which is possible. The difficulty here is that all of the previous films were really well received by their intended or general audiences.

 

[jf300]

Went to see Oz last night and they had trailers for Man of Steel and Iron Man 3. I always already excited for Iron Man but seeing the trailer for Man of Steel on the big screen with that soundtrack blaring pushed it right up to number 2 on my list for 2013 (behind The Hobbit of course).

 

[Marvin]

Based purely off of how well their previous films did and giving them all a modest increase:

1. Iron Man 3 (1,511,757, 910)
2. Hobbit (1, 015, 557, 024)
3. Hunger Games (or Man of Steel) (691,247, 768)
4. Man of Steel (or Hunger Games) (wild card, might be lower)
5. Monsters University (or After Earth) (562, 566, 455 - adjusted around 662 mil)
6. After Earth (or Monsters University) (624.4 (Hancock) and 624 (MIB III))
7. The Smurfs 2 (or Despicable Me) (563, 749, 323)
8. Despicable Me (or The Smurfs 2) (543, 113, 985)
9. Thor: The Dark World (449, 326, 618)
10. Oz The Great and Powerful (will likely end around 450-500 mil)

I see all the sequels increasing and After Earth performing like your usual Will Smith summer blockbuster. Man of Steel is a wild card, but I don't see it performing better than where it currently is (which is saying it will make at least 700 mil or slightly higher worldwide, after SR that's a really good number.)

For MoS, Monster U and After Errf to all do well, one is going to have to give, given their release dates. I'm guessing the one in the middle.

 

[Marvin]

Went to see Oz last night and they had trailers for Man of Steel and Iron Man 3. I always already excited for Iron Man but seeing the trailer for Man of Steel on the big screen with that soundtrack blaring pushed it right up to number 2 on my list for 2013 (behind The Hobbit of course).

Just wait till the next trailer, hopefully at that point, WB will start showing more of the box office fodder elements. Such as his powers.

 

[Ultimatehero]

For MoS, Monster U and After Errf to all do well, one is going to have to give, given their release dates. I'm guessing the one in the middle.

It's all going to depend. As said, Man of Steel is a wild card it could do better yet it could easily do worse. You're going up against Will Smith who has never had a blockbuster below that mid 600 range or at least recently and Pixar. Both already have more box office pull from the start for the audience at large. Knowing that I see all of them taking some sort of hit. Man Of Steel also likely won't be the one among them that's an instant first weekend hit - it would be the one with the continual legs and word of mouth however. The audience right now seems skeptical yet excited, give them something that's Nolan's Batman quality and you're looking at legs. Those legs will be its saving or rising grace.

 

[warhorse78]

I doubt The Hobbit will battle for the top spot, it'll do well, but I don't think it'll have enough crossover appeal. I don't see a lot of girls/women rushing out to see it.

True about the ladies. I know it's terrible for us to be this way (no more than men who like women who are curvy) but we tend to like the tall guys, and when the Hobbit is featuring more of the short dudes (Hobbits and Dwarves) instead of the humans and Elves, it kind of loses it's sex appeal for us. Perhaps with Legolas having an appearance in the upcoming Hobbit movie might be enough to entice the ladies to come back.

 

[warhorse78]

I'm thinking that Iron Man 3 will win the summer just based on the fact that it's coming fresh off the success of The Avengers.

Yep, I think the same. Ironman 3 is going to be the juggernaut to contend with this year.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

True about the ladies. I know it's terrible for us to be this way (no more than men who like women who are curvy) but we tend to like the tall guys, and when the Hobbit is featuring more of the short dudes (Hobbits and Dwarves) instead of the humans and Elves, it kind of loses it's sex appeal for us. Perhaps with Legolas having an appearance in the upcoming Hobbit movie might be enough to entice the ladies to come back.

But it has a sexually neutral DRAGON! With the voice of Benedict Cumberbatch!

 

[Ultimatehero]

Last year clearly shows that sex appeal doesn't matter in regards to Hobbit. It will likely be the second highest grossing sequel of the year since it's entry film was the only first film of the bunch to cross a billion dollars. With Iron Man being linked to Avengers to most audiences which did exceptionally better and will bring it to the top spot. So Hobbit doesn't really have a battle considering how the last performed. The only space it has to go from here is up.

 

[Liam_H]

Nvm

 

[rayc1971]

hangover 3 vs fast 6 who wins?they both open the same weekend boxoffice report has hangover doing 86mill and fast 6 100mill opening weekend.i don't think I have ever scene 2 movies draw those kinda opening weekends together.has this happened before?one movie doing 100 mill and the number2 movie drawing 86 mill?

 

[Ultimatehero]

Memorial Day weekend. That's a four day weekend. I'd say it's certainly possible granted those four days. (Or is it three days and a weekend is typically only two days? Unsure how Friday is counted - and this is why I stick to writing and not to money lol). Anyway, it's probably the extended day.

 

[kedrell]

hangover 3 vs fast 6 who wins?they both open the same weekend boxoffice report has hangover doing 86mill and fast 6 100mill opening weekend.i don't think I have ever scene 2 movies draw those kinda opening weekends together.has this happened before?one movie doing 100 mill and the number2 movie drawing 86 mill?

Ugh, no matter which wins that weekend...I know I'll be the one who loses. Never liked the F&F franchise at all and while I really liked Hangover1 it's a film that IMO should never have had sequels. But I'll say F&F wins since it's fans really liked the last entry.

 

[jacobed]

I don't think Iron Man or Hobbit will do nearly as well as some of you are predicting. While I think Man of Steel and Pacific Rim are going to exceed expectations. Fast 6 will blow Hangover out of the water. Hangover 2 was eh in most peoples minds while Fast 5 exceeded almost everyone's expectations

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Hangover and Fast Six are going to cannibalize each other.

They both have the same frat boy target audience.