2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[FilmNerdJamie]

The Hangover Part III will lose. That shouldn't be in doubt.

Fast 6 will blow Hangover out of the water. Hangover 2 was eh in most peoples minds while Fast 5 exceeded almost everyone's expectations

Bingo.

 

[Ultimatehero]

The thing that will save it at box office though is smart promoting - 'the final installment.' though it will still have an uphill battle, that might alleviate some things.

 

[mclay18]

In its first four days of release's G.I. Joe Retaliation is doing pretty well with a $52M cume (and supposedly $100M worldwide), especially as a sequel to a reviled first installment. Granted its release pattern and season release differ, but the sequel could've done a LOT worse considering.

I expect Tyler Perry's Temptations to drop like a rock in its second weekend onwards.

 

[Evil Twin]

G.I. Joe is doing about as well as could be reasonably hoped, but the studio is going to take a bath on two marketing campaigns and the cost of reshoots. The franchise is going to live or die on international and toy numbers.

 

[kedrell]

I think GI Joe2 is gonna end up with anywhere from the same WW numbers as the first film to maybe $50M WW short of it. $250-300M WW

 

[Doctor Jones]

Hangover and Fast Six are going to cannibalize each other.

They both have the same frat boy target audience.

Oh, it's much bigger than just the frat boys. Those are the rare types of films where it appeals to other gender as well. The other gender you say are... fe... males?

Hangover: Believe it or not, women get them too.

Fast and Furious: Paul Walker and Vin Diesel

 

[Ultimatehero]

G.I. Joe is doing about as well as could be reasonably hoped, but the studio is going to take a bath on two marketing campaigns and the cost of reshoots. The franchise is going to live or die on international and toy numbers.

Not necessarily. If they see they can easily make a lot more money with the third film compared to how much money they made on this one they'll likely shoot the third film just without two marketing campaigns (every film practically has reshoots) so they can get even more money. Basically if they see the dollar signs and profit in this one - minus the round about way this film hindered it - they'd go ahead with it. Because in the end they'd get a higher profit than if they didn't.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think GI Joe2 is gonna end up with anywhere from the same WW numbers as the first film to maybe $50M WW short of it. $250-300M WW

I think they'd be happy with that but not happy enough to greenlight GI Joe 3.

 

[:eek:]

G.I. Joe: Retaliation posted the biggest overseas opening of the year as it grossed $80.3 million in 53 territories, including an $11 million performance in Russia. The global cume is $132 million. The film nearly doubled the opening weekend gross of its predecessor, G.I. Joe: the Rise of Cobra, in the same number of territories. G.I. Joe: Retaliation can expect to add to its performance with upcoming openings in China and Japan. The film will expand to six more countries next week.

 

[Liam_H]

That should put it on pace to beat the WW total of the first movie and if that one got a sequel, can't see how this doesn't.

 

[kedrell]

Yeah, the OS was the more wildcard here. DOM I bet it drops around $25M from the 1st film for about a $125M cume. But it seems OS will indeed make up the shortfall.

 

[jacobed]

Good, I'm happy its making good money. I enjoyed immensely.

 

[Ultimatehero]

That should put it on pace to beat the WW total of the first movie and if that one got a sequel, can't see how this doesn't.

Not to mention, I could be wrong -- the budget was cut from the first one. So, with that they're probably looking at a better profit (including with the delay).

 

[Quasimod0]

Heard they green lighted a third GI joe movie. Guess they were happy about the money it was making. Good for them! I liked the movie

 

[mclay18]

Heard they green lighted a third GI joe movie. Guess they were happy about the money it was making. Good for them! I liked the movie

Give it a month and a half, then we'll hear concrete sequel news from Paramount and MGM. I expect Reese & Wernick to return, as well as Chu and most of the actors from Retaliation (Cotrona, The Rock, Padalecki, Lee, et al). March 20, 2015 is available for Paramount for the third pic...

 

[terry78]

They already hit August and March, if they're confident enough they may go for a winter or summer release for the third if it's a big spectacle.

 

[jacobed]

The best idea for them is get everyone back, the writers, cast, and director and then make it a big spectacle. This movie set the stage nicely for a big Cobra vs. Joes finale.

 

[mclay18]

They already hit August and March, if they're confident enough they may go for a winter or summer release for the third if it's a big spectacle.

If Paramount gets a big hit film on their hands, they usually stick to the same seasonal release for sequels. Take Paranormal Activity and the Star Trek reboot, for example. Originally, G.I. Joe 2 was supposed to hit the same August weekend the first pic did last year, but was moved up to June (thanks to Star Trek 2 not going into production yet) and then pushed back to late March 2013 for the 3D conversion.

They ought to take a leaf out of Universal's switcheroo strategy for their Fast & Furious franchise. Two of the top 3 grossing movies in that franchise so far have been April releases, thanks to lack of competition and good marketing. Then when the franchise regained its popularity, that's when it moved back to summertime.

Since G.I. Joe: Retaliation didn't get that huge uptick Fast Five did, Paramount could probably do gangbusters by giving G.I. Joe 3 an early spring (February-April) or even fall (October-November) release. Then when that's successful, spring for a prime summer release date for a fourth pic.

 

[Evil Twin]

Not necessarily. If they see they can easily make a lot more money with the third film compared to how much money they made on this one they'll likely shoot the third film just without two marketing campaigns (every film practically has reshoots) so they can get even more money. Basically if they see the dollar signs and profit in this one - minus the round about way this film hindered it - they'd go ahead with it. Because in the end they'd get a higher profit than if they didn't.

The international number probably seal the deal for a sequel, but the studio isn't going to make a lot on this one at the end of the day. Heck, along with the second marketing campaign there was a tremendous opportunity cost of not having a film ready for release in Summer 2012 and undoubtedly they racked up some financial penalties on top of that. It's hard to keep a studio functioning with no revenue coming in for significant periods.

 

[mclay18]

The international number probably seal the deal for a sequel, but the studio isn't going to make a lot on this one at the end of the day. Heck, along with the second marketing campaign there was a tremendous opportunity cost of not having a film ready for release in Summer 2012 and undoubtedly they racked up some financial penalties on top of that. It's hard to keep a studio functioning with no revenue coming in for significant periods.

Paramount wasn't exactly hurting for money last summer. They got 8% of the worldwide box office from The Avengers as a parting gift from Disney, which was at least $120 million. They didn't spend a dime.

Of course they had to pay up for delaying G.I. Joe: Retaliation at the last minute (as well as 3D and another P&A spend). But in hindsight, Paramount pushing back this movie to avoid the double whammy of ASM and TDKR was definitely for the best. Financially, I mean.

 

[Evil Twin]

If Paramount had known how much Avengers was going to make, they would have held on to the rights. They had a better year than releasing an outright bomb, but they weren't planning on having no product in the Summer of 2012 by a longshot.

I have no problem with reshoots, if you have a cut but see that things are rough in spots, why not make it better? However, reshoots that delay a picture 9 months, instead of in the normal development time, come at a steep cost.

Considering the response to this G.I. Joe film seems to be a lot more positive, they're probably looking at profit on this film in terms of "goodwill" rather than in monetary terms. They're certainly not going to get the ROI they were hoping for when they first greenlit the film.

The franchise survives though and that's the bottom line for fans.

 

[Marvin]

Paramount is banking on Transformers and TMNT next summer. Considering the states of the franchises, they won't be spending all that much on either. An exciting risk if I've ever saw one.

As much as Disney had to pay out to get marvel and their movies, they ended up getting alot more back than they paid for. Avengers success is very much due in part to the 5 movies paramount paid for leading up to that little prize.
I see the same thing happening with Lucas Arts. Whomever is making those big decisions at Disney is probably getting alot of pats on the back at this point.

 

[terry78]

I'm suspecting Evil Dead will be number one this weekend. Not just because horror flicks are a sure thing, but because it's getting that acclaim and more than horror fans and teens are interested it looks like.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Paramount is banking on Transformers and TMNT next summer. Considering the states of the franchises, they won't be spending all that much on either. An exciting risk if I've ever saw one.

As much as Disney had to pay out to get marvel and their movies, they ended up getting alot more back than they paid for. Avengers success is very much due in part to the 5 movies paramount paid for leading up to that little prize.
I see the same thing happening with Lucas Arts. Whomever is making those big decisions at Disney is probably getting alot of pats on the back at this point.

Why wouldn't Paramount spend alot on Transformers? It's a guaranteed billion dollar gross.

 

[Marvin]

Why wouldn't Paramount spend alot on Transformers? It's a guaranteed billion dollar gross.

Various reports(including bay himself) confirm a reduced budget.
Not sure how reduced, but with bay's sensibilities maybe around the first film 140mil. Plus 3D costs.

A billion seems like a likely gross, but this is sort of a new start(especially the cast) along with audience fatigue and with that comes a risk. Just look at ASM.