2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[terry78]

Iron man may very well hit that billion mark.

 

[:eek:]

Iron man may very well hit that billion mark.

Oh, it definitely will. I think the question is how much more than one billion it can make.

 

[metaphysician]

Top 10 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $711,2 million
2. The Croods $508,8 million
3. Oz The Great and Powerful $485,1 million
4. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $355,9 million
5. A Good Day to Die Hard $302,5 million
6. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $223,9 million
7. Oblivion $223,1 million
8. Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons $207,9 million
9. Lost in Thailand $202,6 million
10. Jack the Giant Slayer $196,4 million

Out of curiousity, how do you decide when to upgrade from the Top 10 of the year to the Top 20 or 25?

 

[:eek:]

Out of curiousity, how do you decide when to upgrade from the Top 10 of the year to the Top 20 or 25?

And the answer is...

Spoiler

I will upgrade to top 15 when we have 15 $150 million movies, top 20 when we have 20 $200 million movies, and so on.

 

[:eek:]

Iron Man 3 is days away from reaching the $1 billion global benchmark after grossing $89.3 million overseas this weekend for a $949 million global total. The overseas total for Iron Man 3 is $664.1 million across 55 territories, including a whopping $95.2 million from China. The latest entry in the Iron Man franchise has surpassed the global totals of Captain America ($369M), Thor ($449M), Iron Man ($585M), Iron Man 2 ($624M), Amazing Spiderman ($752M), Spiderman 2 ($784M), Spiderman ($822M), and Spiderman 3 ($891M). It is the highest grossing film of all time in Indonesia and Malaysia.

 

[KangConquers]

Iron Man will hit #5 of all time worldwide, the trick is if it can beat Harry Potter 8 for the #4 position.

 

[:eek:]

The horror movie The Purge might become one of this summer's surprises:

Twitter Report: 'The Purge' Stands Out Against Blockbuster Titles

on May 14, 2013 by Shawn Robbins
June 7 will see the release of writer/director James DeMonaco's The Purge, an original horror flick hoping to become one of this summer's sleeper hits. The "all crime is legal for one night each year" concept will certainly be divisive. So far though, online signs are encouraging for the film being headlined by Ethan Hawke and Lena Headey.
Last week, The Purge began a spike in Twitter activity that hasn't let up. Posting 2,183 tweets on May 7, the film has since tallied more than 39,000 tweets (through and including Monday with an incredible 11,123). As of early this morning, Tuesday's count is already over 7,400.
More impressive is the fact that since Friday, May 10, the movie has generated more Twitter comments than blockbuster titles like Star Trek Into Darkness and Man of Steel. As of Monday, May 13, The Purge is also performing ahead of, or on par with, The Hangover Part III, Iron Man 3,and Fast and Furious 6.
It takes a lot of factors firing on all cylinders to turn an unconventional horror flick into a box office success during a busy season like summer, but distributor Universal seems to be making all the right moves so far.
The BoxOffice team is currently forecasting a $16 million opening and $38 million domestic total for The Purge. We'll continue to update those projections as the film's June 7 release date approaches.

 

[terry78]

Yeah, they throw horror movies into the summer fray every year, but this one looks original enough.

 

[:eek:]

Top 10 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $953,7 million
2. The Croods $534,1 million
3. Oz The Great and Powerful $487,3 million
4. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $356,9 million
5. A Good Day to Die Hard $303,2 million
6. Oblivion $243,2 million
7. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $223,9 million
8. Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons $207,9 million
9. Lost in Thailand $202,6 million
10. Jack the Giant Slayer $197 million

 

[Marvin]

IM3 has had a good little window to make money. Drove's of people showed up for more avengers and I'm sure they were satisfied. Surprisingly, Gatsby did 50 mill. However I assume that wasn't the same audience, between Leo and the 50's book crowd looking for a rescheduled oscar movie, that's a lot of people.

I'm curious to see how IM3 holds up now that the high profile STID is opening up and teeming at the mouth for it's audience. One thing's for sure and that is that Trek's window will be silm given what's coming out the following weeks.

What's also interesting is the way these films have sold themselves. It's almost an inverse approach to marketing/story telling between the two. SPOILERS FOR IM3/STAR TREK VILLAINS.

Spoiler

"Come see Ironman fight his most popular villain, only for us to not really go there."
"Come see Kirk and Spock face off against this no name, when really it's the most famous and infamous villain the property has ever known."

How much more attention would trek be getting if abrams didn't insist on holding that back from the marketing. How much would IM3 have made if they were straight forward from the start? We'll never know.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Only comic fans know Mandarin and we DID get Mandarin, a version audiences have latched onto while a small but vocal margin of fans didn't. Versus Khan who everyone has heard of at least in ppassing. So it would have made no difference for IM3. only for Trek ... maybe ...

 

[jacobed]

I wouldn't call it small. Sure the critics enjoyed the movie but it seems many many many people do not like the movie. Because of the Mandarin or whatever else reason, I didn't like it because it was stupid. Star Trek is going to make huge money but unfortunately for that movie it only has a week to do it because a few of the big guns come out the week after. I personally like to see that Gi Joe has made as much as it has. Awesome to see it succeed when a lot thought it would fail

 

[Ultimatehero]

The MAJORITY liked it. You wouldn't see a film reach a billion, which this is looking to, if many many hated it. A film many many hated wouldn't be looking at reaching that ammount. You hated it, many many - liked it.

 

[Marvin]

The MAJORITY liked it. You wouldn't see a film reach a billion, which this is looking to, if many many hated it. A film many many hated wouldn't be looking at reaching that ammount. You hated it, many many - liked it.

If only more people applied that rational to TF's consistent numbers.

The thing about Mandarin is that weather you're into comics or not, if you look at it from a GA perspective, if those commercials were more honest, I mean dead honest, we'd have a pretty different reception.

It's an interesting direction. I can only imagine if they did the same with TDKR(though they kinda did). If bane was just some worm actor "playing terrorist" and Bruce simply chose to go underground...pretty sure the franchise would be remembered differently.

 

[Ultimatehero]

That would be saying the audience went to see Kingsley as Mandarin. And not that the audience just wanted to see Iron Man after the Avengers with just as much fun and spectacle, which is what they got and why it's looking to make a billion. A billion isn't a one you're in deal - you need repeated strong weeks to get there which this is looking to have. No way would it beat Avengers, but it's looking to be the # 1 Iron Man movie, # 1 movie of the summer, and get close to what Avengers made. That doesn't happen overnight, that happens over many weeks. Plus, even critics liked it. Joss Whedon looked at the finale action sequence and went, "what am I going to do now?" The audience got what they wanted -- more Iron Man, more War Machine/Iron Patriot, a well crafted story, and a villain who can offer an amazing spectacle. Mandarin didn't sell the movie. LOKI could sell a movie - but not Mandarin. To them, Mandarin was just another face of evil which could be replaced by any face of evil. He's not Loki (Avengers' key villain).

 

[Marvin]

That would be saying the audience went to see Kingsley as Mandarin. And not that the audience just wanted to see Iron Man after the Avengers with just as much fun and spectacle, which is what they got and why it's looking to make a billion. A billion isn't a one you're in deal - you need repeated strong weeks to get there which this is looking to have. No way would it beat Avengers, but it's looking to be the # 1 Iron Man movie, # 1 movie of the summer, and get close to what Avengers made. That doesn't happen overnight, that happens over many weeks. Plus, even critics liked it. Joss Whedon looked at the finale action sequence and went, "what am I going to do now?" The audience got what they wanted -- more Iron Man, more War Machine/Iron Patriot, a well crafted story, and a villain who can offer an amazing spectacle. Mandarin didn't sell the movie. LOKI could sell a movie - but not Mandarin. To them, Mandarin was just another face of evil which could be replaced by any face of evil. He's not Loki (Avengers' key villain).

Alot of what marvel has been doing is clever marketing, right down to Whedon's little line there. It's all clever stuff. Alot of IM3's success doesn't come on it's own merit. It's simply the way the industry works. I'm not going to discredit the film completely but if Thor 2 came out 2 months after avengers it'd make "lots of money" regardless of weather it was amazing or just solid.

I'm not saying IM3 sucks(I happen to endorse it). What I'm talking about is the audience and their relationship to a story. Have you ever heard of the "it was all a dream" effect. When the movie is almost over and it ends up the lead was just dreaming the entire thing. It's a divisive device and the issue is entirely objective. I am saying that the stunt they pulled with their marketing and the way it ended up, couldn't have made everyone happy...fan boy or not.

If they redefined the modern joker in this manner. Yes, the audience would simply accept that they got "the joker" but to have him be an actor paid for by the likes of Dagget(or whatever that guys name was), who really has no gripes with the protagonist whatsoever?
Vs a man created in part by the protagonist, obsessed with playing and then destroying him on 3 levels.
Also, I agree Mandarin isn't that big a villain, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking they choose the least known IM3 character they could when it came to name recognition.

All I'm saying is that it was a bold move(and I like bold moves), but at the outset it's the type of direction that can(and does) leave some audiences wanting.

I agree however, 1 billion(even coming off of a 1.5 billion dollar film you are advertising yourself as the direct sequel to) means alot of people liked it...
IM3 did do good amount of international maneuvering though(a chinese version?), I'm curious to see just how well it does domestically in relation to both Avengers and even Batman.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Well, Whedon's line I highly doubt is marketing. Part of it is, yes. But it's also - what does he have left to do with Iron Man that we haven't seen before? Also the more and more MARVEL movies you make, the more and more huge action locations we've seen making his job even harder there. While there are still locations uncharted, the docks is a classic one. And if it's just city-scape you could run the risk of having it be a retread of Avengers.

Thor 2 is going to make heap loads of money. It has Thor and it has Loki. Maybe not a billion, but yet again - maybe a billion. But, a lot of money since it has both.

The thing is Joker is an iconic villain. Loki is an iconic villain. Khan is an iconic villain. Mandarin is NOT an iconic villain. And Mandarin is nowhere near their level. He's B-list at most/best more C-list to general audiences. You could have had some random villain that isn't Mandarin and it would still be making this level money because Mandarin isn't a big villain. To comic book fans, yes. But outside of comic book fans? No. Anyone who has heard of Star Trek probably has heard of Khan whether or not they've seen 'The Wrath of Khan.' So the only scenario that would stand on a similar level is your Joker example. They have both entered pop culture, whereas the Mandarin is just known by comic fans.

 

[Marvin]

I just see that particular line from Whedon being a little too company. For starters, the ending of IM3 wasn't all that(a harbor fight with a few character driven gimmicks), secondly, looking at the body of whedon's work...um it just seems like a hyperbolic comment. Everything that comes out of that group these days seems designed to get fan boys ears a stir. But that's me.

I'm sure the Thor sequel will make a good amount of money(curious if it beats any one Ironman film), and I'm sure fans will claim it will do so on it's own merit as well.
I guarantee it will be better than the fist though.....ugh phase 1.

Well I'm glad you at least agree with my joker example. It was pretty great.
As for the mandarin I see your point...however there is something to be said about a characters most known villain.
For example, The general audience doesn't really know Zorro's best villain(Don Rapheal), by way of the fact that they don't really know Zorro. But two hit film in and you advertise that Zorro is finally facing off against this Don Raphael character and he's going to beat him...it makes a difference.

The internet has a way of connecting and hyping all audiences alike. And if you get fan boys behind something it somewhat contributes. I didn't read dick nor did I care about LotR in 2000, but seeing the way the "fan community" reacted, I jump in.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I see the line as both. Really, what else can you have Iron Man do at this point that we haven't seen before?

Thor worldwide made 449 mil whereas the first Iron Man made 585 mil. I'm seeing possible 700-800 or maybe 900 mil. Remember it has both Loki and Thor. Two characters from Avengers. It will also get built up and heavily promoted by ABC. I think this is why MARVEL held SHIELD off for CAPTAIN AMERICA - he needs the highest boost.

Well, the actor never was Mandarin - Mandarin was Mandarin - it was just not the asian guy comic book fans know. But, as to general audience - Killian was always Mandarin. He even tells the audience that he is the real Mandarin. That makes Killian that villain, not some actor he dug up. They promised Iron Man would meet his equal and he did. It just wasn't the equal some comic book fans wanted thus resulting in a division among fans. It would really be if they changed some things about Don, he had a bodyguard double to keep him safely hidden away and we find out a different character was the real Don the whole time and is able to match Zorro.

I'd say the LOTR example is extreme. The example that would fit in is if fans loved or hated the way Gandalf is portrayed. Because that is what's happening here. The majority have liked the film, just a minority are vocal about their anger over one character.

 

[Marvin]

I see the line as both. Really, what else can you have Iron Man do at this point that we haven't seen before?

Pick up a few books and find out. Luckily Whedon is an avid reader.
Perhaps he might actually incorporate the "Extremis" tech applied to Ironman and not just demo some odd interpretation of it, that would be one place to go. The real dilemma is the characterization. I don't know if I can watch Tony battle with his sense of humility a 5th time.

Thor worldwide made 449 mil whereas the first Iron Man made 585 mil. I'm seeing possible 700-800 or maybe 900 mil. Remember it has both Loki and Thor. Two characters from Avengers. It will also get built up and heavily promoted by ABC. I think this is why MARVEL held SHIELD off for CAPTAIN AMERICA - he needs the highest boost.

Coming out of Avengers, and with what looks to be more competent direction, you may be right. I had thought IM made more WW. Domestically is another story all together. Especially for Thor. But marvel seems more interested in the international scene these days so you are probably right.

Well, the actor never was Mandarin - Mandarin was Mandarin - it was just not the asian guy comic book fans know. But, as to general audience - Killian was always Mandarin. He even tells the audience that he is the real Mandarin. That makes Killian that villain, not some actor he dug up. They promised Iron Man would meet his equal and he did. It just wasn't the equal some comic book fans wanted thus resulting in a division among fans. It would really be if they changed some things about Don, he had a bodyguard double to keep him safely hidden away and we find out a different character was the real Don the whole time and is able to match Zorro.

Again, apply that to joker and you can see how it can bother people. I supposed you'd say it's different cause the Joker is actually known...see where we are diverging here?

We might end up going back and forth on this a while. I'll say this. Mandarin or not, Marvel sold a much more interesting villain than the generic re imagining they put fourth.

Spoiler

Hey, is that Captain America's helmet? You liked the Avengers right....Their marketing model is all sorts of clever at the moment and more power to them.

I see what you're saying, I do. The GA went in and got "A Mandarin" and they loved it. My point is, did they all love it. And how many of them didn't love it for the objective reason that they were sold wolf tickets(on a general level). I honestly don't think IM was in such a hot place coming out of IM2 though many believe he was hotter than ever. I would have loved to see how this film would have performed had it simply followed the first sequel.

I'd say the LOTR example is extreme. The example that would fit in is if fans loved or hated the way Gandalf is portrayed. Because that is what's happening here. The majority have liked the film, just a minority are vocal about their anger over one character.

I didn't bring up LOTR in light of this exact scenario. I brought it up to point out the effect a genre community can have on the GA. There were a bunch of 12 year olds in line for fellowship and I doubt they were book enthusiasts(not in the US anyways). When fans get excited, it often trickles into the GA.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

The MAJORITY liked it. You wouldn't see a film reach a billion, which this is looking to, if many many hated it. A film many many hated wouldn't be looking at reaching that ammount. You hated it, many many - liked it.

This. Lot's of fans are in denial, but the truth is, like Iron Man 2, despite many fans claiming, majority of both GA and critics gave favorable reviews and liked the movie. The Iron Man trilogy was a very successful trilogy even if the neither of the sequels reached the critical success of the first.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I wouldn't call it small. Sure the critics enjoyed the movie but it seems many many many people do not like the movie. Because of the Mandarin or whatever else reason, I didn't like it because it was stupid. Star Trek is going to make huge money but unfortunately for that movie it only has a week to do it because a few of the big guns come out the week after. I personally like to see that Gi Joe has made as much as it has. Awesome to see it succeed when a lot thought it would fail

Where's your proof? All other outlets, whether it be IMDB, Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic, Cinemascore (A), and even Fandango reviews o) suggests otherwise. Just because you didn't like it didn't mean that huge crowds of people didn't.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Well, you can't please everyone. Box office speaks for itself though and it wouldn't be where it is if it didn't please people a lot. You might get a lot of money, but you don't get to a billion by only pleasing 70% of the audience. You need more than that. A lot more.

I wouldn't say fan reaction made LOTR what it was. I wasn't an LOTR fan, granted I'm in the film realm, but still the reason it stood out was because it was like unlike anything we had ever seen in theaters at that point. It was the same reason I'd say Avengers did as well as it did. It was unlike anything people have ever seen before. You give the crowd a great spectacle unlike anything they've ever experienced? You're bound to have people turn up. Basically, as long as it's a great film and easily targeted for mass appeal -- and offers something never seen before -- you're looking at a lot.

 

[:eek:]

Box Office Milestone: 'Iron Man 3' Hits $1 Billion

25 minutes ago | The Hollywood Reporter | See recent The Hollywood Reporter news»


Taking only 22 days, Shane Black's Iron Man 3 hit $1 billion in worldwide ticket sales on Thursday to claim No. 16 on the list of all-time grossing films for Disney and Marvel Studios. In addition, Iron Man 3 crossed the $300 million mark at the domestic box office on Wednesday. The tentpole has earned $698.9 million internationally and $301.9 million in North America. In terms of global standing, Iron Man 3 has now surpassed Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End ($963 million), Jurassic
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»


- Pamela McClintock

See full article at The Hollywood Reporter »

 

[Bim]

Wow, that seems awfully fast!