2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[:eek:]

Wow, that seems awfully fast!

Well, that's what you get with an rapidly expanding market in some countries. Iron Man 3 has made ten times more money than The Return of the King in China for example. If what some experts say, that China will be a bigger market than America by 2020, becomes true it's possible we'll see movies making over a billion dollar in just these two markets.

 

[Marvin]

I marvel made a good move by opening up everywhere really early, giving the release schedule of every other film(IM3 has been the only option for this audience for a good few weeks). However I don't seen that final push from the asian markets most of these films(included that bat films) have gotten being in the books here.

Keeping an Eye on China and Thailand. Though the early summer release does mean this film will play there..forever. Lukily Star Trek doesn't have that strong and international presence(nor a big international opening) so IM3 should do more big international numbers this weekend. It's probably going to be the same next weekend too.

Clever Business.
Should be close.

 

[samsnee]

wow, that seems awfully fast!

twss

 

[Bim]

I marvel made a good move by opening up everywhere really early, giving the release schedule of every other film(IM3 has been the only option for this audience for a good few weeks).

Indeed. Worked with TA also.

twss

Huh?

 

[mclay18]

I think it's more than possible that Star Trek Into Darkness will earn $90M in the 3-day weekend. The 4:05 and 7:20 p.m. 2D shows were full (the latter just about sold out), and people clapped at the end.

I think it's going to get a big boost tomorrow, mark my words.

 

[Marvin]

The film is highly enjoyable, it's just some critics and "fans" that are making it sound like a major abrams misstep.

 

[:eek:]

'Star Trek Into Darkness' Falls Short Of Expectations; 'Iron Man 3' and 'Gatsby' Hold Up Well
May 18, 2013 04:43 AM

by Phil Contrino
Despite posting strong early numbers on Friday, Star Trek Into Darkness has cooled down. The sci-fi extravaganza is now on pace for $68 million from Friday-Sunday after tallying $22 million on Friday. That will put its 4-day total at $81.5 million. Even Paramount was expecting $100 million in four days. Negative word of mouth doesn't seem to be the culprit. Into Darkness is creating plenty of buzz on Facebook and Twitter, and it boasts an "A" from CinemaScore. Theimpact of Iron Man 3's monster debut combined with the impending release of The Hangover Part III and Fast & Furious 6 could be to blame. 2009's Star Trek made $82.7 million during its first four full days of release, or approximately $87.5 million when adjusting for inflation.

 

[terry78]

This month is always pretty crowded. June usually has like one or two massive plays with some lulls.

 

[jacobed]

June is going to be all about Man of Steel

 

[terry78]

And Monsters University if Pixar has overcome that Brave tepidity.

 

[Marvin]

Marvel must be hiring witch doctors to put a curse on mid to late may film releases. This happens ever year. If I read one report about Fast 6 or Hangover "under performing" I'll laugh at first, then I'll start to rub my chin.

 

[rayc1971]

'Star Trek Into Darkness' Falls Short Of Expectations; 'Iron Man 3' and 'Gatsby' Hold Up Well
May 18, 2013 04:43 AM

by Phil Contrino
Despite posting strong early numbers on Friday, Star Trek Into Darkness has cooled down. The sci-fi extravaganza is now on pace for $68 million from Friday-Sunday after tallying $22 million on Friday. That will put its 4-day total at $81.5 million. Even Paramount was expecting $100 million in four days. Negative word of mouth doesn't seem to be the culprit. Into Darkness is creating plenty of buzz on Facebook and Twitter, and it boasts an "A" from CinemaScore. Theimpact of Iron Man 3's monster debut combined with the impending release of The Hangover Part III and Fast & Furious 6 could be to blame. 2009's Star Trek made $82.7 million during its first four full days of release, or approximately $87.5 million when adjusting for inflation.

they thought trek would do over 100mill 4 day but didn't count on iron man3 and Gatsby still doing big business.i still think their is still a little negativity with abrams lying about khan not the villain some might think this is just a rehash of wrath of khan

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I thought the trailers looked adequate but bland and not persuasive. They didn't build the film up to be an event.

 

[jacobed]

Marvel must be hiring witch doctors to put a curse on mid to late may film releases. This happens ever year. If I read one report about Fast 6 or Hangover "under performing" I'll laugh at first, then I'll start to rub my chin.

They definitely won't under perform. Fast 6 will see the highest opening weekend of the franchise and Hangover will do about what the second one did. This is the first year a Marvel movie has actually had some competition in May

 

[BestGirl]

I thought the trailers looked adequate but bland and not persuasive. They didn't build the film up to be an event.

It didn't help that Abrams tried to keep Cumberbatch's character a secret as long as possible. There's a reason why so many movies build their marketing around the villain.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

It didn't help that Abrams tried to keep Cumberbatch's character a secret as long as possible. There's a reason why so many movies build their marketing around the villain.

Bingo.

Spoiler

Keeping Khan's identity a secret (as a result, preventing lots of cross-promotional deals/press/exposure) and hiring an actor unknown to the public did them in.

 

[rayc1971]

Bingo.

Spoiler

Keeping Khan's identity a secret (as a result, preventing lots of cross-promotional deals/press/exposure) and hiring an actor unknown to the public did them in.

true on all points

 

[mclay18]

It didn't help that Abrams tried to keep Cumberbatch's character a secret as long as possible. There's a reason why so many movies build their marketing around the villain.

Yeah. Plus J.J. Abrams and the writers could've just said "no comment" when being pestered about 'is Cumberbatch playing Khan?' instead of lying through their teeth.

 

[jacobed]

Really happy to see 42 doing so good. It deserves every cent

 

[rayc1971]

Yeah. Plus J.J. Abrams and the writers could've just said "no comment" when being pestered about 'is Cumberbatch playing Khan?' instead of lying through their teeth.

funny thing is when benicio del toro was up for the role everyone and there grandmother knew it was khan!

 

[Warhammer]

funny thing is when benicio del toro was up for the role everyone and there grandmother knew it was khan!

That is so true. In a parallel universe where Del Toro got cast instead (and all due respect to Cumberbatch because he was marvelous), who knows how the marketing would have been for this film. I am sure that the film would have had a better performance more in line with the expectations of Paramount.

With Iron Man 3's fantastic legs, and Fast & Furious 6 plus The Hangover Part III coming out, next week is going to be a disaster for this film.

 

[jmc]

I'm starting to wonder if Paramount should have released ST2 the week after Iron Man 3.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

The blockbuster season is too crowded, once again.

I think one or two of these movies could have benefited from a April or August release.

 

[Warhammer]

My big question is who is going to win next week between Fast & Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III. And to whoever wins, how much will it win by? Because honestly, there isn't going to be much counter-programming since these films both share the same target demographic. There will no doubt be undercutting one another.

Will people be upset because The Hangover Part II wasn't nearly as good as the original? Will people come to Fast & Furious 6 in droves because Fast Five was well received?

 

[Warhammer]

I'm starting to wonder if Paramount should have released ST2 the week after Iron Man 3.

I don't know. Either it would have stuck to it's current scenario and be eaten alive next week or it would have came out last week and been even more undercut by Iron Man 3 than it already was this past weekend. The combination of Star Trek Into Darkness underperforming and Iron Man 3 overperforming hurt it. In hindsight, it was better off being released out of May entirely. For the past couple of years, mid-May has been a death trap.