2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[Marvin]

At least one film will make 1billion.
That's just the way things are going.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

I don't see why WB isn't taking a chance and try a spring release for that film (especially considering MOS will be in the can anytime now). The first two weeks of April are pretty light (mostly comedies and thrillers). And coming off a packed March... MOS could seriously make a ton of money with little competition before Oblivion expands on April 19th.

Or if March 2013 wasn't so packed, WB could easily try that Hunger Games spot for MOS, which only has The Croods scheduled for that weekend.

I can't believe of all the movies WB elected to push up when March 1, 2013 became available was Jack the Giant Slayer. MOS would've been perfect for that early March spot. It would've been refreshing after the previous month's chick flicks and R-rated action flicks.

Superman will always be a summer movie, it's a tentpole. March is really a time to release movies that a studio isn't 100% sure about. Hunger Games was a new franchise, they wanted to hedge their bets and released it in Spring so it wouldn't get lost in the shuffle. Superman is a house hold name, he'll never get lost in the shuffle.

I don't see how Hobbit DOS will finish below all those films. It's certainly going to outgross MoS, Wolverine, AE, and Star Trek.

No 1, will be a battle between IM3, Hunger Games CF and Hobbit DOS.

I really don't see the Hobbit movies doing as well as the Lord of the Rings, there's gotta be a lot of padding in them to stretch the book in to three movies, plus a lot of the crossover appeal is gone since Aragorn and Legolas aren't costars in this one.

I'm curious to see how hunger games performs. On one end it's a sequel to a pop book adaptation, on the other, the curiosity has been satisfied, and there are many people that won't simply go based on that reason alone. Moreover unlike twilight it doesn't have that horny girl boy band fuel.
Moreover, the second book isn't all that good, though it is "bigger". And I would argue that lame direction aside, the story really helped that first movie. However, the slick visuals of lawarence will most likely be a better fit here than the last guy.
If Hunger games is the top dog in the third quarter, it will most likely be due to the lack of anything to challenge for the title.

Hunger Games is a franchise now, the second movie might not do as well as the first, but it'll still be a top earner. I'd expect a drop off close to Spider-man vs. Spider-man 2.

 

[terry78]

Supposedly the second and third books is when it starts to kick in that Katniss is this savior hero, so curiosity will be piqued.

 

[mclay18]

Superman will always be a summer movie, it's a tentpole. March is really a time to release movies that a studio isn't 100% sure about.

Actually, Superman: The Movie was a Christmas release back in 1978 (and the rest were summer releases). Why should studios limit themselves to summer and holiday releases for big budget tentpoles?

March is rapidly becoming a hot spot for big budget movies now, with Disney booking Oz: The Great & Powerful and Maleficent for 2013 and 2014. Summit booked that mid-March 2014 spot for its next franchise, Divergent, so there's more to it than a spot a studio isn't sure of. Even Fox was quick to bag a March 6, 2015 date for its Fantastic Four reboot.

I think if movies continue to flourish in March spots, it'll become a go-to hot spot like May, July, November, and December are now.

 

[Marvin]

Actually, Superman: The Movie was a Christmas release back in 1978 (and the rest were summer releases). Why should studios limit themselves to summer and holiday releases for big budget tentpoles?

March is rapidly becoming a hot spot for big budget movies now, with Disney booking Oz: The Great & Powerful and Maleficent for 2013 and 2014. Summit booked that mid-March 2014 spot for its next franchise, Divergent, so there's more to it than a spot a studio isn't sure of. Even Fox was quick to bag a March 6, 2015 date for its Fantastic Four reboot.

I think if movies continue to flourish in March spots, it'll become a go-to hot spot like May, July, November, and December are now.

For no other reason then that the studios are releasing bigger/better movies during that time. It's ways amazing hot execs are in control of their own bar graphs but are a slave to them at the same time.

If they released the 4 biggest movies next summer but in the spring slot, we'd be then talking about how spring is the new summer. And execs would be scurrying to figure it out. Stop releasing your crap in late summer and september if you want that period to look better on the graphs.

 

[Moridin]

Yea-- no, that won't happen. The first movie had appeal to not only the book fans, but casual moviegoers, and it was marketed extremely well. I certainly didn't see the first movie making over $400M domestic, due primarily to fantastic word-of-mouth sustaining it throughout April.

Goodwill from the previous movie and fans of the books will turn out in droves for Catching Fire next year, regardless whether the book itself wasn't well-received. I can see this going $450M domestic and $750M worldwide.

I could see HG Catching Fire dropping in the US a fair bit like Potter did ($55m drop from 1 to 2), for the same reason Marvin noted, "curiosity has been satisfied". It could hold about the same, but I really don't think it'll jump up $42m from an already massive number.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug - $305M domestic, $600M worldwide

Absolutely no way does DOS only make $300m internationally.

 

[mclay18]

For no other reason then that the studios are releasing bigger/better movies during that time. It's ways amazing hot execs are in control of their own bar graphs but are a slave to them at the same time.

I think it's just a matter of scheduling. The hot summer and holiday spots are booked 2-3 years ahead, and the studios are looking for dates that can do well (if not better) during the off-season months.

 

[:eek:]

Actually, Superman: The Movie was a Christmas release back in 1978 (and the rest were summer releases). Why should studios limit themselves to summer and holiday releases for big budget tentpoles?

March is rapidly becoming a hot spot for big budget movies now, with Disney booking Oz: The Great & Powerful and Maleficent for 2013 and 2014. Summit booked that mid-March 2014 spot for its next franchise, Divergent, so there's more to it than a spot a studio isn't sure of. Even Fox was quick to bag a March 6, 2015 date for its Fantastic Four reboot.

I think if movies continue to flourish in March spots, it'll become a go-to hot spot like May, July, November, and December are now.

April could also become a hot month in the future. In 2014 we get both the Captain America-sequel and Robopocalypse in that month

 

[MadVillainy]

April could also become a hot month in the future. In 2014 we get both the Captain America-sequel and Robopocalypse in that month

Yeah if that keeps working out I can see the hot months being March-August & Nov-Dec

 

[Marvin]

Thought I'd post this here for some digestion. Studios are very franchise minded these days, and I'm sure they look at rankings such as these when they green potential franchise pilot. What's been working.
HIGHEST GROSSING 3 RING FRANCHISES(unadjusted)

Some of these are listed simply as trilogy's some are listed as the accumulation of the highest 3 installments in that franchise. As listed on BOmojo...in billions

Grouped specifically, by 3's and in order.

Group 1
Potter (highest 3) $3259.3
Pirates (highest 3) $3073.4
LOTR (trilogy) $2911.8

Group 2
Pirates (trilogy) $2683.8
Transformers (trilogy) $2669.8
Spiderman (Raimi) $2496.4

Group 3
Star Wars (prequels) $2473.3
Shrek (highest 3) $2471.4
Batman (Nolan) $2456.9

Group 4
IceAge (highest 3) $2417.1
Twilight (highest 3) $2203.2
Bond (highest 3) $2143.8

Group 5
Toy Story (trilogy) $1910.1
Matrix (trilogy) $1633.0
Xmen (highest 3) $1240.2

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

If I were to group them differently it would be as such.

Tier A
Potter (highest 3) $3259.3
Pirates (highest 3) $3073.4

Tier B
LOTR (trilogy) $2911.8
Pirates (trilogy) $2683.8
Transformers (trilogy) $2669.8
Spiderman (Raimi) $2496.4

Star Wars (prequels) $2473.3
Shrek (highest 3) $2471.4
Batman (Nolan) $2456.9

IceAge (highest 3) $2417.1
Twilight (highest 3) $2203.2
Bond (highest 3) $2143.8

Tier C
Toy Story (trilogy) $1910.1
Matrix (trilogy) $1633.0
Xmen (highest 3) $1240.2

------------------------------------------------------------------------

I should add that these are the totals of Jim Cameron's to big individuals.
Avatar $2782.3(part one)
Titanic $2185.4

*note, Pirates listed as two different types of entities, for perspective.
**note, assume Ironman 3 makes at least as much as 2 that would give it $1833.0

 

[Shifty]

Yea-- no, that won't happen. The first movie had appeal to not only the book fans, but casual moviegoers, and it was marketed extremely well. I certainly didn't see the first movie making over $400M domestic, due primarily to fantastic word-of-mouth sustaining it throughout April.

Goodwill from the previous movie and fans of the books will turn out in droves for Catching Fire next year, regardless whether the book itself wasn't well-received. I can see this going $450M domestic and $750M worldwide.

Other predictions:

Iron Man 3 - $320M domestic, $750M worldwide
Star Trek: Into Darkness - $375M domestic, $600M worldwide
Fast & Furious 6 - $212M domestic, $650M worldwide
Hangover 3 - $235M domestic, $400M worldwide
Man of Steel - $300M domestic, $650M worldwide
Monsters University - $250M domestic, $800M worldwide
Despicable Me 2 - $235M domestic, $700M worldwide
The Wolverine - $154M domestic, $400M worldwide
Thor: The Dark World - $235M domestic, $650M worldwide
Frozen - $200M domestic, $650M worldwide
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug - $305M domestic, $600M worldwide

Honestly, I can't conjure up a solid prediction for Pacific Rim, The Lone Ranger, The Host, 300: Rise of an Empire, RED 2, Kick-Ass 2, Jack the Giant Slayer and Oz: The Great & Powerful. They're all wild cards for me.

They all could be bombs with Oz grossing a billion.

 

[baerrtt]

I think it's fair to say that this time last year if you posed the question to most ppl as to what they thought 2012's most successful film domestically was going to be TDKR would have been the answer and yet Marvel's THE AVENGERS claimed this year's title.

So, not a poll, what does everyone think will take next year's honour. IRON MAN 3 (my choice IMO), MAN OF STEEL, the 2nd Hobbit movie?

 

[747]

From a worldwide perspective I'd say The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug.

 

[hopefuldreamer]

I guess maybe add Pacific Rim to that list? I dunno, could go either way. Could make loads or be a bit of a flop.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

Iron Man 3 or The Hobbit: DOS

 

[MadVillainy]

Iron Man 3 or The Hobbit: DOS

This

 

[:eek:]

Bumping the thread since a new one was created

 

[Drizzle]

I think Iron Man 3 may be the highest grossing film of 2013. It's coming hot off the success of The Avengers. So is Thor: The Dark World, but that isn't on the same level as IM, though that one is certain to make more than the first one. And we also can't count out The Hunger Games: Catching Fire or The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should also do very well, around $850M I'd say.

Also, Monsters University should do very well since the first film made $539M WW (and that number is going to increase with the latest 3D Re-Release).

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

Here are my predictions for the Top 5 grossing films of next year.

1.) Iron Man 3

2.) The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug

3.) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

4.) Monsters University

5.) Thor: The Dark World

 

[terry78]

You need at least one R-rated comedy that is a surprise sleeper hit.

 

[Big Green]

I'm gonna go with Star Trek into darkness and World War Z, people really love zombies.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

Okay, Anchorman 2

 

[jacobed]

It'll be Man of Steel. It's going to take the world by storm

 

[hopefuldreamer]

It does have the potential to be a surprising success. We'll have to see