2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[:eek:]

Taken 2 did fantastic business in October, but not gangbusters (around $139M). I think once a non-Halloween/scary movie makes over $200M domestic with an October release, that's when studios will start spreading them out more.

The funny thing is that Hollywood has already proven a long time ago that you can make big money even when you release a movie in September. Crocodile Dundee was released in September in 1986, and became the second biggest movie domestically. And the year after the same happened with Fatal Attraction. So why they aren't spreading out big movies more these days when the market is more crowded than it was in the 80's is beyond me.

 

[mclay18]

The funny thing is that Hollywood has already proven a long time ago that you can make big money even when you release a movie in September. Crocodile Dundee was released in September in 1986, and became the second biggest movie domestically. And the year after the same happened with Fatal Attraction.

You're absolutely right. Once inflation is accounted for, they both made over $300M apiece (Crocodile Dundee amassed $356M in today's dollars). But that's also counting the insane legs and meager competition going for them too.

I don't know why studios consider September to be dumping grounds (aside from kids going back to school and lessening the weekday grosses). Or January, for that matter.

 

[:eek:]

Forum Buzz: 'Hobbit', 'Oz' & 'Zero Dark Thirty' Surge; Does 'Star Trek' Still Lead Most Anticipated?

Add Comment on January 07, 2013 by Shawn Robbins

The first 2013 edition of our Forums' Most Anticipated Movies has arrived, and while a certain area of the chart remains consistent with past weeks, other notable films are beginning to make waves.
With the major 2012 holiday releases out of the way, our forum community is now looking ahead to what movies excite them the most in the new year. Creating some of the most noise: March's Oz: The Great and Powerful. Sam Raimi's fantasy flick leaped nine spots to crack the top 10 two months out from its release.
A few notable jumps outside of the top ten include the upcoming wide release of Zero Dark Thirty, which jumped from #18 to #11 last week, The Wolverine (up ten spots to #13) and A Good Day to Die Hard (taking #17 up from #30 previously).
In addition, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug cracked the top five for the first time as it slowly but steadily moves up the chart. The second Hobbit movie was up three positions to #4 ahead of Thor: The Dark World. It still has some work ahead of it to catch the top three though.
Speaking of the top three, for the third consecutive week they remain the same. Iron Man 3 took the bronze medal, Man of Steel the silver, and of course, Star Trek Into Darkness held on to #1 for a fourth straight frame. The distance between Iron Man 3 and Man of Steel remained about the same while Trek actually increased the voting spread from last week between it and second place. Star Trek Into Darkness is the first film to claim #1 for four consecutive weeks since The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey achieved that feat back in August (as part of a 7-week run at the top dating back to late July).
For the full list of anticipated films, and to contribute your own opinion on what flicks you're most excited to see, please visit this page on our forums and join the discussion.
1. Star Trek Into Darkness (-) (4 weeks running)
2. Man of Steel (-) (3 weeks running)
3. Iron Man 3 (-) (3 weeks running)
4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (+3)
5. Thor: The Dark World (-) (2 weeks running)
6. Pacific Rim (-) (2 weeks running)
7. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (-3)
8. Elysium (+2)
9. Monsters University (-1)
10. Oz: The Great and Powerful (+9)

 

[mclay18]

Is it just me, or is it a huge mistake for Fox, WB and Relativity to schedule their chick flicks/counterprogramming on Valentine's Day? It might make sense if V-Day was on Friday, but on a Thursday? They'll be front-loaded as all get out, especially Safe Haven.

I don't know why they didn't take a cue from last year's The Vow and Safe House. Both were released a week before Valentine's Day and did terrific business that weekend plus Valentine's Day (five days after, I might add).

 

[baerrtt]

The thing is- it's still the key MARVEL hero, thus the key character to audiences in THE AVENGERS. It was seen as "Iron Man and friends" to the masses at first. If Iron Man 2 was to effect a film it would have been that. As it stands, AVENGERS one year ago. IM2 - 2 years ago or 3 years ago. Avengers in this case is the "last film." Masses don't have as wide of an attention as fan boys when it comes to this. To them IM3 is more AVENGERS 2.

I actually liked SR better, but extreme orphan/adoptee bias there.

It effects Superman because SR was its last film. IM3 got saved due to Avengers, thus masses aren't looking to it as the sequel to IM2 but the sequel to Avengers- which might back fire and is why IM3 seriously needs to live up to those expectations because in comparison it is a much smaller film and while it will probably be better than IM2 if word is it's not Avengers level- that might hurt it.

This is the key point. IM3 is essentially, to joe public, the sequel to THE AVENGERS.

 

[Marvin]

Every film marvel makes at this point needs to and will fail to live up to avengers, on context alone(not to mention the whedon factor).

That doesn't bother them though, the way they were tossing easter eggs and other tie ins about, they're all about or rather, they live for that exact factor. Very much the opposite of nolan. The sell "tie in" like disney sells merchandising. Besides it' only a few films till the real avengers sequel arrives.

Luckily it's RDJ(the star of avengers) arriving first other wise this issues y'all brought out would be much more apparent.

I'm looking forward to how they plan to using their gift to get the world to care about Gaurdians of the Galaxy.

 

[mclay18]

I'm looking forward to how they plan to using their gift to get the world to care about Gaurdians of the Galaxy.

If Ant-Man can emerge from development hell, then selling GotG to general audiences shouldn't be as hard.

 

[Marvin]

If Ant-Man can emerge from development hell, then selling GotG to general audiences shouldn't be as hard.

post avengers, those dudes will throw anything at us and it will "look good"

 

[:eek:]

Top 5 worldwide

1. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $128,3 million
2. Gangster Squad $87,1 million
3. Mama $77,6 million
4. From Up on Poppy Hill $60 million
5. Warm Bodies $46 million

 

[Shifty]

Month of January / Current Total
1. Zero Dark Thirty $71.4 million / $84.2 million
2. Mama $51.5 million / $64.5 million
3. Gangster Squad $41.2 million / $45 million

Well I got one of the top three, not the right spot though. Maybe February will be better.

January
1. Gangster Squad
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. The Last Stand

February
1. A Good Day To Die Hard
2. Identity Thief
3. Safe Haven

 

[mclay18]

Domestically, Identity Thief is now 2013's highest grossing movie with $70.7 million through today (and will cross $100M next weekend). Worldwide, Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters has grossed $150 million.

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

 

[Tacit Ronin]

By this time last year everybody was convinced TDKR and The Hobbit would take the top two spots; The Avengers was expected to do very good but not the phenomenon it ended up being, and I highly doubt Skyfall was even on anybody's radar to be one of the top films of the year. And yet, The Avengers sits heads and shoulders ahead of everyone at the top of the crown of 2012 with Skyfall an unexpected number 2. I hope this year carries similar surprises, though the high watermark of The Avengers is very unlikely to be topped. Fingers crossed for MOS, even if it has its release date hindering it and preconceptions negatively coloring it.

 

[ThePowerCosmic]

I seriously think MoS is going to be in the top 3, if not number 1.

 

[Liam_H]

Don't see MOS approaching $1 billion, it needs the international numbers to be big for that to happen and for a first movie I don't see it.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Don't see MOS approaching 41 billion, it needs the international numbers to be big for that to happen and for a first movie I don't see it.

I honestly don't see any movie approaching 41 billion.

 

[kedrell]

MoS just doesn't have enough built into it(and has plenty going against it) for me to think it'll somehow end up in the top3 of the year, let alone be #1. Top 5 of the year? Maybe and maybe top 3 of the summer but that's as far as I see it going so far. It still has to get over SR's reputation which will work against it. Not as badly as B&R worked against BB but it'll still be hindered opening weekend by it.

 

[Moridin]

They definitely need to go all out promoting MoS. Making a big deal over the 75th anniversary could go a long way in making it more of an event, like Skyfall had with Bond's 50th.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

It's been said that Snyder's pulled off some breathtaking action sequences, they need to show that starting from the second trailer.

 

[kedrell]

Well they certainly had enough time to get it right. Principle photography started nearly 2 years before the film is to be released. That's almost unheard of, especially for a superhero film. There'll be no excuse not to have all the SFX pristine as can be.

 

[:eek:]

Top 5 worldwide

1. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $151,6 million
2. A Good Day to Die Hard $116,5 million
3. Gangster Squad $91,8 million
4. Mama $89,1 million
5. Identity Thief $75 million

 

[:eek:]

Top 5 worldwide

1. A Good Day to Die Hard $185,2 million
2. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $163,5 million
3. Mama $97,7 million
4. Gangster Squad $96 million
5. Identity Thief $95,6 million

 

[:eek:]

A Journey To The West: Conquering The Demons remained in first place with $54.93 million in 6 markets for a total of $168.02 million after three weeks of release. It is the biggest Chinese film released this year, but it won't be the last to get to the century mark.

 

[mclay18]

Man, studios need to start making better movies and start marketing them right. Until we get some movies that really pop, as well as the summer blockbusters, 2013 is starting out to be... well lackluster in terms of movies raking in the dough.

 

[Liam_H]

Conditions are set for Oz to take advantage and bust out. There hasn't been an event movie this year yet. Aside from Identity Thief and maybe Mama nothing has over performed.

 

[:eek:]

Man, studios need to start making better movies and start marketing them right. Until we get some movies that really pop, as well as the summer blockbusters, 2013 is starting out to be... well lackluster in terms of movies raking in the dough.

On the domestic side 2013 certainly needs some big hits soon. It´s already around $200 million behind 2012. And March last year saw the massive success of The Hunger Games, and then you had Avengers in May...

With that said I wouldn't bet any money on there being a new box office record domestically this year