2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[redhawk23]

The theaters are just kind of bereft of even decent looking films right now. Most things that I was even somewhat interested in during this part of the year have been pushed back into later months.

I think Evil Dead will be able to do pretty well so far. The Posession last year made bank despite being lame as hell. Evil Dead at the very least looks like something actually happens.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't think Evil Dead is going to help the bad box office situation much. The problem with 2013 so far is obviously the conplete lack of films that have huge potential. OZ and Joe have potential but not big enough potential to make up for the lack of a Hunger Games and Lorax. Jack the Giant Slayer is looking to be DOA which everyone expected. The only movie that is going to or has hit 100mil is Identity Thief.

 

[redhawk23]

I agree that overall Evil Dead won't make much of an impact, I just think it has a pretty good chance of doing well for itself, especially with such a lack of real competition.

Even later into the month, Oblivion might do well, maybe.

 

[redhawk23]

This past month was the lowest grossing February since 2002 according to Box Office Mojo.

 

[hammerhedd11]

Yeah, these past few months have been pretty dead. Nothing so far this year has even interested me to get to the theaters, while at this time in 2012 I had been at least 3-4 times already, and I think that's shown in the box office. Beyond Oz, I don't see anything having much potential to hit big even until Iron Man 3 all the way in May. The Croods maybe, simply because of lack of any family movies so far this year, but even then, it doesn't look poised for too big a run based off of lackluster marketing. GI JOE 2 as well, but I think the big delay really sapped a lot of interest and good will toward the film, and I don't see it even hitting the mark of the first film. The only other film I can see having any sort of chance to get close to 100 mil is Oblivion and even that is not getting much of a response, even from the fans that would be particularly pumped about this kind of film.
I think the big studios really dropped the ball this spring season; it's looking a lot like January for about four months straight.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Joe has has Tatum, The Rock together in a special effects driven action movie, it will hit at least 100mil but I'm not sure about it outdoing the first film. OZ is a lock to do at least Snow White and the Huntsman domestic numbers and more overseas and the Croods should crack 100mil. As for Oblivion, I'm not feeling a big hit right now. I could be wrong but the movie feels like another sub 100mil movie for Cruise and of course it will be a giant smash overseas like all his films.

According to boxofficemojo Jack the Giant Slayer only did 7.7mil yesterday and it has a 190mil budget. That friday is less than John Carter and you know what I'm not surprised because it's trailers were far worse than Carter's. I'm glad Hoult just had the hit Warm Bodies because he is a charming actor.

 

[mclay18]

I don't think Evil Dead is going to help the bad box office situation much. The problem with 2013 so far is obviously the conplete lack of films that have huge potential. OZ and Joe have potential but not big enough potential to make up for the lack of a Hunger Games and Lorax. Jack the Giant Slayer is looking to be DOA which everyone expected. The only movie that is going to or has hit 100mil is Identity Thief.

It boils down to this: A lot of 2013's offerings now suck and not much 'wannasee' generic films like last year's Safe House and The Vow (February 2012 was record-breaking in addition to March).

Unless there's several small films with sleeper hit potential... the box office just won't pop until Iron Man 3 comes out. Oblivion might kick-start things, but it might not, depending on the audience reaction and pre-release buzz.

 

[chaseter]

Jack bombed with $7 million Friday on a $200 million budget.

Oz I think will be a good movie but idk how it will do at the box office. If I had to guess, $50-60ish million opening weekend. It doesn't have silly Johnny Depp running around in a costume so I don't think it will capture the Alice numbers by far.

 

[mclay18]

Jack bombed with $7 million Friday on a $200 million budget.

Oz I think will be a good movie but idk how it will do at the box office. If I had to guess, $50-60ish million opening weekend. It doesn't have silly Johnny Depp running around in a costume so I don't think it will capture the Alice numbers by far.

I think Oz could do better than that, in fact I think a $80M-90M opening is possible. Alice benefitted from that goodwill Avatar established three months prior with 3D, the property itself, and yes, the Depp factor. Oz doesn't have that 3D goodwill (people are sick of the format) or Depp, but it does have that recognizable property and stunning visuals. Cap it off with a solid marketing campaign, and I think the film will definitely clean up next Friday.

But Depp is no longer a reliable actor to draw in audiences. People will come to see him stagger in full Jack Sparrow regalia (and he is good at that), but even that Burton/Depp combination isn't bulletproof. He's the primary draw for the POTC franchise, but that's it.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Oz ain't getting close to 90 million.

It's an obvious Alice in Wonderland knock off with obvious/cheesy CGI.

I'm gonna guess 55 m.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The GI Joe push back will go down as one of Hollywood's biggest blunders.

It probably inflated the budget to 200 m and it will be lucky to make half that in the domestic market.

 

[rayc1971]

i guess 60mill opening for oz I think if it does will it can make 180 to 200 mill domestic

 

[chaseter]

Oz ain't getting close to 90 million.

It's an obvious Alice in Wonderland knock off with obvious/cheesy CGI.

I'm gonna guess 55 m.

The CGI looks pretty damn good and it's quite obvious that it's not an Alice knockoff.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The CGI looks pretty damn good and it's quite obvious that it's not an Alice knockoff.

The only CGI that doesn't look cartoony is the flying monkeys.

and it's obvious they're trying to cash in on the success of Alice and Wonderland which was also extremely heavy with wacky CGI creatures and environments.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think Oz is going to do 70mil in it's opening weekend. Maybe 80mil if everything comes together.

 

[chaseter]

The only CGI that doesn't look cartoony is the flying monkeys.

and it's obvious they're trying to cash in on the success of Alice and Wonderland which was also extremely heavy with wacky CGI creatures and environments.

How do you cash in on a movie 3 years old?

 

[Liam_H]

Because if people really liked AIW and Oz having a similar aesthetic might convince them to see the latter. Same theory as to why Battleship looked so similar to Transformers but the general audience saw through that BS.

 

[chaseter]

BS was an obvious ripoff. It even had the same sound effects. This looks absolutely nothing like Alice. The Wizard of Oz looks like that....what else is it supposed to look like? I would agree if it was a hack director but Raimi isn't a hack. I think I have seen one commercial where it says 'From the Producer of Alice in Wonderland' and they quickly dropped that and started relying on the movie instead of past movies.

 

[Liam_H]

I'm not writing the movie off but you can't deny based on what we've seen so far, it isn't a stretch to say they could exist in the same universe.

 

[chaseter]

That's a poster not made by Sam Raimi. I'm talking about the movie...not the promo material. The studios do that.

 

[Evil Twin]

According to Deadline, tracking for Oz's opening weekend is in the $80 to $89 million range. Given that it should be appealing to family audiences, I expect healthy legs as well.

 

[redhawk23]

That's a poster not made by Sam Raimi. I'm talking about the movie...not the promo material. The studios do that.

The movie has the same producers and was originally offered to Burton. Its very much along the same lines and undeniably an attempt to recapture the same market.

 

[ddddeeee]

Burton wasn't offered Oz. Maybe you're thinking of Maleficent?

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I never heard of Burton getting offered Oz. I only heard Sam Mendes name when they were looking for directors.

 

[chaseter]

Yeah I don't ever remember Burton being asked, hinted at, or rumored to be offered the job.