2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[danoyse]

Yes Wonderstone would have done better because you liked it and IDT is hated because you and people online didn't like it...Oh how I wish I lived in your fantasy world where personal preference means anything when it comes to which movie most people liked. Okay, I hate the Transformers movies, that means that everyone else hates them as well! My wish will come true any minute now!

Reader Reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and IMBD mean nothing. I don't much care for Cinemascore either.

Tone it down, please. There's no need for the attitude.

 

[Ultimatehero]

As said, more confused. I didn't like it, no one in the crowd liked it, the critics hated it, I have yet to meet even one person online who liked it (exaggeration, just almost but not by that much). It seems more like a spoof movie type of "how the hell did that happen?" scenarios more than anything else. Or, as said, probably because of the lack of comedies around when it came out and weeks after which could have definitely attributed to it. A dry spell turn out. The only other one around then that seemed like a regular comedy being the spoof one, which have seriously gotten a bad name over the years, and the multi-starred one that caught no attention and missed the mark. So, for anyone who wanted a regular comedy - since January -- it was the only one coming out. As said, that would explain how things could line up. Not great, but if it's one of your few options for a while in comedy, it would happen.

 

[Marvin]

Wonder what kinda dry spell turnout Joe's gonna get in two weeks.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Joe is an action movie like any other. We've had many and there are many coming out. As per summer spectacle level, Oz nailed that with its visuals. February had Die Hard and Snitch and Bullet to the Head. I forget when the white house is coming out, but that's sometime soon as well. Identity Thief had a scary spoof movie (which those have started to rub audiences the wrong way) and Movie 43 (which seemed too juvenile to many), whereas I.T seemed like a regular comedy. Of which the last one I could find was The Guilt Trip around 2 months prior. Thus, dry spell. Unless there's a way of looking at Joe that I haven't brought to mind... that noted, I see it as doing better than the prior action films, but not due to a dry spell.

 

[:eek:]

Top 5 worldwide

1. Oz The Great and Powerful $283,8 million
2. A Good Day to Die Hard $265,8 million
3. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $205,9 million
4. Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons $203,8 million
5. Lost in Thailand $196 million

 

[jacobed]

Wonder what kinda dry spell turnout Joe's gonna get in two weeks.

It's going to make quite a bit of money, definitely more than the first guaranteed

 

[Evil Twin]

The first made $150 million domestic ($300 million worldwide). I think it's going to have a tough go at that domestic number. The first isn't well liked, there's all kinds of bad buzz around the delay, and the NCAA tournament is going on. It needs to open over $50 million to have any shot at that domestic number, and I think that's an unlikely number.

The worldwide number is more doable, but we'll see.

re: Identity Thief - While I didn't see it, I think marketing was right on. It emphasized that Melissa McCarthy and Jason Bateman, both popular comedic actors, were in the movie, got the premise out, and let people know that it was a silly comedy. Yeah, timing is everything, you could release Burt Wonderstone exactly as it was when Carrey and Carrell were at the height of their popularity and it would open big, but there's really no secret why Identity Thief was popular.

 

[Evil Twin]

I'll add that The Great Gatsby is a film where it's likely that reviews and word of mouth will matter. I think WB would be fairly happy if it opens over $30 million and basically performs like Magic Mike did for them last year.

In the plus column, there are big stars, the production values obviously show up on screen, and it's the only movie opening wide in May where I think you can say that it skews towards women. And, you'd think people would know by now that women like to go to movies too. (That's also why The Heat is going to do well for itself.)

 

[hammerhedd11]

It's going to make quite a bit of money, definitely more than the first guaranteed

It's going to be very lucky to reach the domestic haul of the first.

 

[Shifty]

Last summer I said Joe 2 would still make $300 million but the domestic and international totals would shift with a smaller domestic take and larger international numbers. Still see that happening given Die Hard's numbers this year.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

re: Identity Thief - While I didn't see it, I think marketing was right on. It emphasized that Melissa McCarthy and Jason Bateman, both popular comedic actors, were in the movie, got the premise out, and let people know that it was a silly comedy. Yeah, timing is everything, you could release Burt Wonderstone exactly as it was when Carrey and Carell were at the height of their popularity and it would open big, but there's really no secret why Identity Thief was popular.

Exactly.

UH, you're making this all sound really much harder than it really is. I.T. had popular actors that people like seeing and thus it appealed to people more. The marketing wasn't too bad either. You nor your theater may not have liked it, but the point is other theaters obviously did. Repeating the same point over and over again isn't going to change that.

Burt Wonderstone, on the other hand, had a sillier premise that didn't appeal. Also, it has one star who's been declining in popularity the last few years (Carrey) and another in which, if he's not in a romantic comedy or an animated movie, doesn't really appeal as much (Carell, in which the last hit he was in that was neither of the aforementioned movies was Little Miss Sunshine).

Talking more about Carell, unless it's an Apatow (or Apatow produced) movie, these types of movies like Burt Wonderstone isn't what people want to see from Carell. It's almost the same as Paul Rudd (except Carrell does have some non animated hits without Apatow or the Apatow crew supporting him).

 

[Ultimatehero]

And thus, I'm sticking by dry season. That's the only thing that makes sense. If it was well received there would be at least some number blocking that up other than money. All money tells me is people were desperate for a comedy and it was the only one available amounting to why it had legs. Opening weekend is an obvious, past that - dry season seems like the only rational explanation. You have months with no regular comedy in sight -- the only two being 'Movie 42' and 'Spoof Movie' of which the audience has completely turned away from recently -- it's quite clear what they audience was seeking and it seems to be just any comedy.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

It's not the only rational explanation like you built up in your head. Spidey could have said it nicer, but she's right. You should stop acting you have the answers because you're not taking in anyone else's taste in mind but your own.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Find me one source outside of money that says the audience likes it. I checked IMDB, I checked rotten tomatoes, among other sources and no audience reaction accounts for the legs it has. They're all piss poor reactions in comparison to most films that do do well (and are attacked by critics). I also can't find a cinescore online anywhere which is kind of especially puzzling. As said, you're welcome to think people liked it just like I'm welcome to believe dry spell. But, personally - until I see one source online of a positive audience reaction (outside of money) it does seem to be purely dry marketplace driven or at the very least partially dry marketplace driven. Which would account for it's money and the ratings audiences are giving it internet-wide.

 

[Liam_H]

You're assuming that all these measurements you're talking about represent the mass majority of audience. It's not. A movie does not have that type of leggy run if its disliked. If Burt Wonderstone and Identity Thief switched dates would they switch box office, highly doubt it.

 

[Ultimatehero]

And I'll keep to that assumption because it's the only thing that makes sense to me. I didn't say they switch box office. I said if Wonderstone was clearly out of Oz's way it would have made more money than it did opening weekend. And if it was released around Identity Thief, I don't see Identity Thief making as much as it did. Largely because it seems to have made it because there were months without regular comedies in theaters leading to part of I.T's box office most likely being from a dry spell.

 

[Rocketman]

I feel like Man of Steel might be the dark horse this year and end up winning 2013's box office, beating Iron Man 3 and everything else. It comes down to MoS being fresh, new, and from the sound of it, we haven't seen anything yet. If it ends up being a total masterpiece out of left field, I have a feeling it'll be bigger than we're anticipating.

- A story by Christopher Nolan and David Goyer
- Produced by Christopher Nolan and Emma Thomas
- With the visuals of Watchmen and 300

Ignore that it's Snyder directing it for a moment and you have the makings of something crazy big.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Ignore that it's Snyder directing it

hard to do that if you're not blind and deaf.

 

[Rocketman]

hard to do that if you're not blind and deaf.

Hi, I'm Nice. Have we met?

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Hi, I'm Nice. Have we met?

Almost, logic came between us.

 

[Rocketman]

Almost, logic came between us.

So did your grammar.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Such is her influence.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Ignore Rocketman. Logic eludes him all the time.

 

[mclay18]

hard to do that if you're not blind and deaf.

You could say you don't like Zack Snyder's work, instead of insulting someone outright.

Just saying.

 

[Marvin]

Ignore that it's Snyder directing it for a moment and you have the makings of something crazy big.

Snyder's the best part.