2016 Primaries and Caucuses Thread

[Thundercrack85]

Hillary is too big to jail. But let's be clear, if anyone else did this, they would be in deep ****.

I mean, this is more than just a protocol issue. It's a security issue, not to mention a transparency issue. She deliberately destroyed government emails.

 

[Chance Jackson]

As much as I hate Cruz I am actually glad he won, I think he is a much easier general election candidate then Trump. Trump to me has a punchers chance of beating Hillary. Cruz will show the far right what we think of "true conservatives"

I hate Cruz the most I'm just happy his win guarantees a contested convention the ****ary is too good this year lol

 

[Kelly]

Oh the RNC is going to be the best tv on television that week.....I cannot wait.

 

[Marvolo]

Oh the RNC is going to be the best tv on television that week.....I cannot wait.

Can we have a separate Republican Convention thread or should discuss it in here or the Republican thread?

 

[Kelly]

I don't know why not....I'm game.

 

[Marvolo]

I don't know why not....I'm game.

Cool. Do you mind creating it?

 

[Kelly]

You can create a thread ya know....or are you afraid to have your name on a Republican Thread? LMAO.....

 

[Marvolo]

You can create a thread ya know....or are you afraid to have your name on a Republican Thread? LMAO.....

Lol nah its not that. I just felt that a thread created by a mod would seem more legitimate and get more attention. But it doesnt have to be creatrd right now. The convention is still a ways off.

 

[Thundercrack85]

We'll have to merge it with the wrestling thread.

 

[SV Fan]

No surprise Bernie won the Wyoming Caucus, but the vote is much closer then other caucuses in that area. Looks like final vote will be in the 56%-44% range. When all is said and done I am guessing the delegates will be split something like 9-5 or 8-6

ETA: looks like the delegates were split evenly 7-7. So basically it's a win for Bernie that really isn't a win, it's a tie.

 

[SV Fan]

It also looks like Cruz is sweeping up a bunch of delegates in Colorado's non primary or caucus convention. I guess each party can do what they please but I honestly don't get the purpose of closing off the selection of a candidates/delegates to the citizens. To me the caucus process is bad enough, personally the state wide parties should use these primaries as a way to try get people interested in politics and out to vote for their party

 

[Kelly]

As Cruz wins, the RNC becomes must see TV..... lol, can't wait.

 

[SV Fan]

As Cruz wins, the RNC becomes must see TV..... lol, can't wait.

It's sort of funny, Cruz sort of back doored his way to be the nominee for Republican Senator in Texas, and now he might backdoor his way into being the Republican nominee for President

 

[DDS]

What a disaster for the GOP. The id of their base has yielded two of the least electable options possible for the general.

 

[summerteeth]

What a disaster for the GOP. The id of their base has yielded two of the least electable options possible for the general.

Well, it's going to be a contested convention for sure at this point. Kasich still has an outside shot. I'm almost pulling for Trump over Cruz at this point because of the talk about drafting General James Mattis for a third party run. The idea would be for him to run and prevent Hillary and Trump from reaching 270 electoral votes needed to be elected President. In that case the House would then vote to elect a President and the Senate would vote for Vice President. Which could yield many possible outcomes like a Romney-Biden administration.

 

[SV Fan]

Well, it's going to be a contested convention for sure at this point. Kasich still has an outside shot. I'm almost pulling for Trump over Cruz at this point because of the talk about drafting General James Mattis for a third party run. The idea would be for him to run and prevent Hillary and Trump from reaching 270 electoral votes needed to be elected President. In that case the House would then vote to elect a President and the Senate would vote for Vice President. Which could yield many possible outcomes like a Romney-Biden administration.

I think the 3rd party thing is basically a reason to get out disenfranchised Republican voters so they vote for Senate and House races down ballot. A third party conservative candidate will basically have the same effect of Ross Perot

 

[summerteeth]

I think the 3rd party thing is basically a reason to get out disenfranchised Republican voters so they vote for Senate and House races down ballot. A third party conservative candidate will basically have the same effect of Ross Perot

Unlike 1992 where you had two fairly strong candidates you would have two weak candidates in Trump and Hillary. Mattis also would be able to appeal to a wide range of voters while being able to challenge each candidate on their perceived strengths. Mattis isn't an insider and isn't one to hold his tongue, if Trump tries to be the tough guy in front of a four star general Mattis will shut him down. Mattis also would be able to turn around and challenge Hillary on foreign policy.

 

[TheBat812]

No surprise Bernie won the Wyoming Caucus, but the vote is much closer then other caucuses in that area. Looks like final vote will be in the 56%-44% range. When all is said and done I am guessing the delegates will be split something like 9-5 or 8-6

ETA: looks like the delegates were split evenly 7-7. So basically it's a win for Bernie that really isn't a win, it's a tie.

How in the world does an over 10% margin of victory equal a tie in delegates?

Btw, that means Bernie has actually won 16 states compared to Hillary's 15. And by a wider average margin. New York is going to be hugely important for either candidate!

 

[summerteeth]

How in the world does an over 10% margin of victory equal a tie in delegates?

Btw, that means Bernie has actually won 16 states compared to Hillary's 15. And by a wider average margin. New York is going to be hugely important for either candidate!

It's not winner take all, it's proportional. I'm not sure how Wyoming is set up particularly but are you really quibbling about Bernie not getting 8 delegates instead of 7 like that would matter?

 

[SV Fan]

How in the world does an over 10% margin of victory equal a tie in delegates?

I am not 100% sure but I think each district gets to award a delegate so Hillary vote was more concentrated in areas she got delegates, while Bernie won by larger margins in districts he got them

Unlike 1992 where you had two fairly strong candidates you would have two weak candidates in Trump and Hillary. Mattis also would be able to appeal to a wide range of voters while being able to challenge each candidate on their perceived strengths. Mattis isn't an insider and isn't one to hold his tongue, if Trump tries to be the tough guy in front of a four star general Mattis will shut him down. Mattis also would be able to turn around and challenge Hillary on foreign policy.

It will be a case that Hillary will win the Democrat voters, while Trump and Mattis will split the Republican voters while the independents are split amongst the 3. Basically it's a case where Hillary will basically win a bunch of states 40-50 to 25-35 to 25-35. Now imagine her walking into Texas, holding Barrack's 40% while Trump and Mattis fight over the other 60

 

[DDS]

Unlike 1992 where you had two fairly strong candidates you would have two weak candidates in Trump and Hillary. Mattis also would be able to appeal to a wide range of voters while being able to challenge each candidate on their perceived strengths. Mattis isn't an insider and isn't one to hold his tongue, if Trump tries to be the tough guy in front of a four star general Mattis will shut him down. Mattis also would be able to turn around and challenge Hillary on foreign policy.

If the conservative vote gets split like this, guarantee Hillary wins. Only scenario I see where Hillary possibly loses outright is if a contested convention nominates Paul Ryan, and there is no major third party factor i.e. a furious Trump.

 

[TheBat812]

Well, I'd hardly call it quibbling as every pledged delegate matters in the long run, but I would also just love to know how it works. Even if it were proportional, a 10% margin of victory would be at least one more delegate (14 delegates out of 100% would mean each delegate is worth 7.14%). Of course, that's probably not how they're proportioned, because it would just be too logical, lol.

 

[summerteeth]

I am not 100% sure but I think each district gets to award a delegate so Hillary vote was more concentrated in areas she got delegates, while Bernie won by larger margins in districts he got them



It will be a case that Hillary will win the Democrat voters, while Trump and Mattis will split the Republican voters while the independents are split amongst the 3. Basically it's a case where Hillary will basically win a bunch of states 40-50 to 25-35 to 25-35. Now imagine her walking into Texas, holding Barrack's 40% while Trump and Mattis fight over the other 60

If both Hillary's and Trump's favorability ratings weren't so low I would say of course that would be the case, but because of that I think it could break differently. Remember the idea would not be for Mattis to win outright, but for him to win enough states to prevent any candidate from getting to 270. It may be something where you even only put him on the ballot in Blue and Swing states. Let Trump win the Red states without Mattis on the ballot in those states. This is all very hypothetical obviously, but interesting to think about.

For instance, polls show Hillary losing to Kasich in Ohio 57 to 36. With Kasich as Mattis' running mate he could win Ohio and then would only need four more states or so.

 

[Thundercrack85]

I don't see a general no one has heard of defeating Hillary Clinton this late in the game. No disrespect to Mattis, but running on your military record really only works if you have the exposure of someone like Washington, Jackson, Grant or Eisenhower. Or were a general, and then had a successful political career before running like Harrison, Garfield or Roosevelt (well, he was a colonel, but still a celebrated war hero).

 

[Matt]

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