95th Annual Academy Awards

Who will win?

  • "Avatar: The Way of Water" - Best Picture

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • "The Banshees of Inisherin" - Best Picture

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • "Elvis" - Best Picture

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • "Women Talking" - Best Picture

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Andrea Riseborough ("To Leslie") - Best Actress

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Paul Mescal ("Aftersun") - Best Actor

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bill Nighy ("Living") - Best Actor

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    25
  • Poll closed .
As a Spielberg fan I really enjoyed The Fabelmans and IMO it's his best work in over 20 years. I think it's deserving of its praise but I can also see how it may not be everyone's cup of tea. I think it stands a strong chance of winning but I'd prefer to see Everything Everywhere take the top prize.
THIS.

I've been pretty bored of Steven post the great one-two-punch of Minority Report and CMIYC...

...yet Fabelman's utterly wrecked me when it needed to. The whole convergence of Sammy editing the camping footage and piecing it all together was his best scene since the opening to Saving Private Ryan.
 
I don't think we should be so dismissive of screenplays being functional. So very many of them aren't, and I think it's only easy to take for granted because the good ones seem in a way obvious, but that's just the magic trick of good writing.

There's a reason guys like Rian Johnson and Tony Gilroy spend 90% of their time on structure and outlines.
I do admire structure for sure but, like, there's a world of difference between what Tony Gilroy does on top of that brilliant structuring and what the writers of Maverick did. Rian Johnson's hit and miss for me but there's also so much more colour and wit and, at his best, depth to his screenplays.

Again, Maverick is a good script! But its not particularly exceptional in terms of dialogue, characterization, thematic depth etc. I really admire good, efficient blockbuster screenwriting especially when so much of it is just awful but I don't admire it anywhere near as much as I admire something like The Banshees of Inisherin to use another example from this past year.
 
I do admire structure for sure but, like, there's a world of difference between what Tony Gilroy does on top of that brilliant structuring and what the writers of Maverick did. Rian Johnson's hit and miss for me but there's also so much more colour and wit and, at his best, depth to his screenplays.

Again, Maverick is a good script! But its not particularly exceptional in terms of dialogue, characterization, thematic depth etc. I really admire good, efficient blockbuster screenwriting especially when so much of it is just awful but I don't admire it anywhere near as much as I admire something like The Banshees of Inisherin to use another example from this past year.
I'm not gonna argue that BANSHEES isn't easily the better screenplay. And McDonough is one of those freaks who just dives in without knowing the ending.
 
I don't think we should be so dismissive of screenplays being functional. So very many of them aren't, and I think it's only easy to take for granted because the good ones seem in a way obvious, but that's just the magic trick of good writing.

There's a reason guys like Rian Johnson and Tony Gilroy spend 90% of their time on structure and outlines.

The Bourne Legacy and his first draft of The Bourne Ultimatum make me question this notion for Gilroy.

The Bourne Legacy was an awful script and movie. Nearly ruined the franchise for me. Introduced a lot of ideas that made no sense. Not to mention, they never revisited these characters again.
 
You guys are nuts. MAVERICK has a terrific screenplay. It's lean, economical, perfectly structured, and pays off every single story beat in the extended action climax, only for it to all to perfectly culminate in an emotional climax that ties the whole movie together. This wasn't a story that they just threw together in between plane stuff in the editing room, this thing had to work on the page. It's brilliant blockbuster screenwriting and there's no way in hell it would be the run away smash hit that it is without it.

The best screenplay category has historically been over-represented by movies that are primarily being recognized for their dialogue, ignoring the many other crucial parts of writing. A movie like TOP GUN: MAVERICK is absolutely the kind of nomination we should be celebrating, not scoffing at.
Fair points. It has been a while since I saw Maverick way back last summer. There just wasn't anything about the script that really stuck with me. It absolutely does what needs done and does that very well, but I never remember feeling "Wow, this is a good script." For me, a brilliant blockbuster script this year would be Peele's script for Nope.

Structure is key to a good story, but with examples like Gilroy and Johnson, they make innovative use of their structures in a way that makes their scripts feel fresh and exciting. Maverick for me felt by-the-numbers. Which is fine, at the end of the day, it's a good script and I won't begrudge it success. It's just surprising to see it there.

I don’t know why people keep praising The Fablemans.
I certainly enjoyed it, but didn't think it was the earthshaking masterpiece a lot of people called it as. It's teetering on the bottom of my personal Top Ten. But it absolutely has a special place for me, though, because it approaches art and filmmaking in a way that's deeply personal, rather than the usual corny blind inspiration we come to expect from these movies. Spielberg really lays bear some personal issues (that for me are EXTREMELY relatable) and shows that, while movies helped him escape and grow, it wasn't purely good, and left him with questions he still doesn't have answers for.

So I get why people love it so much. Spielberg's third win should have been last year for WSS. But I can't deny that the mirror scene of him watching the destruction of his family through an imaginary film lens is going to stick with me for a long time. It's such a haunting feeling to know that one of your heroes grew into his career from seeing the world like you, while also being slightly horrifying to see it play out.
 
I mean technically that's what happened but without an official campaign.

Mary McCormack basically had all her famous friends endorse the movie on twitter, facebook, ect and made sure the Academy voters vote for Riseborough.

How Andrea Riseborough Got an Oscar Nomination for 'To Leslie' - Variety

According to sources, Stern asked to see “To Leslie” after Morris and McCormack told him about the movie and showed him the rave reviews in the trades — including Variety — that came out after the film premiered at South By Southwest in March 2022.

Stern then began touting “To Leslie,” which was shot in just 19 days in Los Angeles during the height of the COVID pandemic, on his show to coincide with film’s release in the fall. “It genuinely caught everyone by surprise,” a source tells me.

A screening hosted by Charlize Theron at CAA followed. After Riseborough nabbed a Spirit Award nomination, McCormack got to work with help from publicity powerhouses Shelter PR and Narrative PR. McCormack sent an email to friends asking them to publicly support the movie and Riseborough’s performance, even including images and suggested hashtags and accounts to tag in social media posts. “If you’re willing to post every day between now and Jan 17th [the last day of Oscar nomination voting], that would be amazing!” she wrote in one email obtained by Variety. “But anything is helpful, so please do whatever makes you comfortable. And what’s more comfortable than posting about a movie every day!”
More celebrity support started to flood awards season. Among those who posted praise on social media were Sally Field, Liam Neeson, Jane Fonda, Laura Dern, Catherine Keener, Geena Davis and Mira Sorvino. More screenings of “To Leslie” were hosted by Gwyneth Paltrow, Demi Moore, Courteney Cox and Edward Norton. Minnie Driver is set to host a screening tomorrow night in Los Angeles.

Kate Winslet and Amy Adams moderated virtual Q&As with Riseborough.

Cate Blanchett was so moved by Riseborough’s performance that she gave her a shoutout during her acceptance speech at the Critics’ Choice Awards.

And the rest became history on Tuesday morning.

Like I'm a fan of Andrea Riseborough and her performance in To Leslie was pretty good, but this felt like old Hollywood shenanigans which I guess some people assumed anyways.
 
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That is true, it's really down to Blanchett or Yeoh but I think people are worried that the trend can continue for next year and that would mean we would be back to #oscarssowhite all over again.

And everyone thought Danielle Deadwyler was going to be nominated but she didn't.
 
She's truly the female Gary Oldman.

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That is true, it's really down to Blanchett or Yeoh but I think people are worried that the trend can continue for next year and that would mean we would be back to #oscarssowhite all over again.

And everyone thought Danielle Deadwyler was going to be nominated but she didn't.
Which is all well and good, crack down on it for the future but let the nomination stand for now.
 
Added a poll, but only had enough choices for 4 categories.
 
I don’t follow the horse race enough but my guesses.

Blanchett seems a lock for Actress.

I think EEAAO and Banshee split the difference between best pic and best director.

Butler seems to have the momentum for Elvis but I can see Colin taking it.

Ke seems a lock for Supporting (I hope) but I can see Brendan winning based on how votes get split.
 
I definitely want Blanchett for Best Actress and Ke for Supporting Actor. I think Bassett will get Supporting Actress. Best Actor is more of a toss up for me. I could see Butler, Fraser, or Farrell getting it.

This is what I think will happen (not necessarily I agree):

Best Picture - EEAAO
Best Director - Spielberg
Best Actor - Austin Butler
Best Actress - Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor - Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress - Angela Bassett
 
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Think Triangle of Sadness wins best film

Best director Spielberg

The rest i really dont know :yay:
 
I watched Tár last night. It’s on Peacock for those who subscribe. It was fantastic. Blanchett really owned this movie. It’s a bit monologue heavy but it’s all captivating.
 
That is true, it's really down to Blanchett or Yeoh but I think people are worried that the trend can continue for next year and that would mean we would be back to #oscarssowhite all over again.

And everyone thought Danielle Deadwyler was going to be nominated but she didn't.
I think the solution should be let it go this year and then have 6/7 nominees in all acting (even directing?) categories going forward. That would be the fairest solution and it wouldn't be like such a decision wouldn't be long overdue? We have this issue every year, even long before diversity came into the fold.

On a separate but related note, the abuse Andrea and Ana De Armas have been getting over their nominations has been absolutely disgusting. Really sickening stuff. And then you have people like Grace Randolph talking about not understanding privilege. Lol
 
Andrea Riseborough to Keep Best Actress Oscar Nomination - Variety
Andrea Riseborough’s Oscar nomination for independent drama “To Leslie” will not be rescinded, but the use of social media in a grassroots campaign supporting her did not sit well with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

After the film academy announced it would be “conducting a review of campaign procedures” in the wake of Riseborough’s shock best actress nomination, the body’s board of governors deliberated at a previously scheduled meeting on Tuesday.

“Based on concerns that surfaced last week around the ‘To Leslie’ awards campaign, the Academy began a review into the film’s campaigning tactics. The Academy has determined the activity in question does not rise to the level that the film’s nomination should be rescinded. However, we did discover social media and outreach campaigning tactics that caused concern. These tactics are being addressed with the responsible parties directly,” Academy CEO Bill Kramer said in a statement.

“The purpose of the Academy’s campaign regulations is to ensure a fair and ethical awards process — these are core values of the Academy. Given this review, it is apparent that components of the regulations must be clarified to help create a better framework for respectful, inclusive and unbiased campaigning. These changes will be made after this awards cycle and will be shared with our membership. The Academy strives to create an environment where votes are based solely on the artistic and technical merits of the eligible films and achievements,” he concluded.
 
I watched Tár last night. It’s on Peacock for those who subscribe. It was fantastic. Blanchett really owned this movie. It’s a bit monologue heavy but it’s all captivating.
...first time the orchestra hit in the theater scared me, so wonderful.
 
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