BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - Part 14

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[Chesterfield]

Yeah 2 films last year out of how many films last year were at a billion by this time? Again spoiled fans thinking every film should make a billion opening weekend or its a bomb.

No. Learn to manage expectations. No one and not even Marvel expect the likes of Thor, GoTg, Ant-Man and other alleged "flavour of the week" heroes to make a $billion but then again, such films don't have BvS-esque budgets pumped into them. Regarding Marvel's movies going forward, I for one am not expecting Dr.Strange, Black Panther, Ant-Man and Wasp, heck even the new Spidey movie to gross a billion but I do expect them to have reasonable budgets and gross a respectable and favourable amount but definitely not a Billion. When films like the Avengers and even the last 2 batman movies can gross $billion it only stands to reason that a film featuring 2 of the biggest and iconic superheroes in pop culture can gross a $billion also, without any problems, especially when there are other non comic book movies doing it. WB/DC clearly believed that BvS could gross a Billion at least but the movie just wasn't close to being good enough and audiences the world over have literally spoken and rightfully so held on to their cash.

Deadpool gets referenced a lot, why? Because with a budget of just 60million it grossed more than 700million. Let that sink in!

 

[kalhawj]

850 WW BO total is my prediction after it's theatrical run. Anything higher than that is a plus at this point.

 

[Sarcastic Fan]

I'll also go with $850 million at the Box Office.

I am so glad I don't own stock Time Warner stock.

 

[wobbly]

850 WW BO total is my prediction after it's theatrical run. Anything higher than that is a plus at this point.

That is likely the ceiling as things stand.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Are we expecting today's actuals to come in after NYSE closing again?

I dunno. Assuming the $3.9 million number from rth is accurate that's a nice percentage increase and officially takes it to like $702 million, so there's an opportunity for a "BvS surges 27% on Tuesday to top $700 million" headline.

Or you wait again until after close, combine it with OS numbers and do something like "BvS surges to $710 million with $12 million global take Tuesday." (I made the 12 million number up just to be clear, it's just an example.)

Could go wither way...we'll see.

 

[Mjölnir]

Wait a minute this is my issue with the mentality of opening weekends for any movie of any kind. If a movie is big its opening weekend like say deadpool its a hit but when bvs does it then Its just frontloaded. If a movie makes a s ton of money it is a success no matter how you cut it. bvs still made almost an extra $300 mil after its opening weekend the following week so front loaded really goes out the window, this film is making over a billion at this point and if that pains haters yes i said haters to hear then too bad.

Are we so spoiled with crap like force awakens makng 500 billion that every movie now has to make a billion opening weekend?

Deadpool wasn't front-loaded because it had legs, so it kept being successful. That's the difference.

And no, not every movie making a certain amount of money is a success. That's a nonsensical notion. First you have very different budgets for movies. Deadpool is a huge financial success since it made a lot of money on a comparatively low budget.

Then we have expectations. A superhero movie based on a very well known and popular character will have much higher expectations on it than a movie about a Serbian doll maker and his relationship with his dog.

It's obvious that different movies have different conditions for being a success. BvS didn't just have a huge budget and marketing cost, plus expectations for bringing DC's three biggest characters together in one movie, it also needed to create desire for the rest of the shared universe that it was supposed to start. With all that in mind I can't imagine that the people at WB are happy right now.

As for being front-loaded, yes BvS is now pretty much the definition of being just that. When it comes to your last sentence that's just ridiculous, especially since no one is saying that BvS' OW sucked. It's just that the revenue more based on the actual reception of the movie, rather than it's marketing, has dropped more than any other superhero movie but one.

 

[Frodo]

I think regardless of the final total haul , WB is going to change its approach as far as the DCCU in some way after BvS. To think they won't is sticking your head in the sand. They're a business, and they're about trying to please the customers.

Regardless of what fanboys loved or hated the film, the bottom line is that they're making these for the wider pool of potential customers , that being the GA.

If they feel audiences weren't as receptive as they could have been , and are concerned that will hurt them with other DCCU projects, you can be sure something is going to change moving forward.

 

[third3ye]

Man if this lands at $850m, it'll probably tie Zootopia which is at $800m right now and still climbing, got dem strong bunny legs. Who would've imagined? I still think BvS has a good shot of reaching $900m.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Congratulations everyone on getting to 14 threads!
I don't think I have heard of a movie studio waiting for the stock market to close first before reporting the actual box office numbers. What is the typical time they are reported by studios on average?

I'm thinking around 11am sometime around noon?

So if RTH is correct and it makes around 3.7 yesterday, it stands to make between 2.3-3.5 today...still below my estimate of 5 million per day. Which means it will most likely end up with less than $330 million domestically and lowers the ceiling from $850 million to $800 million.

I feel like this weekend will be the last we will see of BvS' "legs" internationally. It's going to come out of the third weekend with around $750-760M worldwide and then it will just be a slow crawl and eventually stop to $790-799 million worldwide in the next four weeks.

Typically big tent pole movies stop making most of its money after 8 weeks and it's a slow trickle of less than $10 million to its eventual final gross. Since BvS was front loaded, I see this occurring much sooner at a premature 6 weeks.

Originally Posted by Poni_Boy
The Force Awakens and Jurassic World were both at $1 billion in the same amount of time. Context. It helps.

I read this in Agent Coulson's voice lol

 

[JOE]

Thank GOD they moved Wonder Woman up to June 2nd... It was going to get SLAUGHTERED. I wonder who the other 2 moves are they just slated, I'm thinking Batman is a guarantee for one of them, perhaps a true MOS sequel for the second slot?

 

[Supa]

I think regardless of the final total haul , WB is going to change its approach as far as the DCCU in some way after BvS. To think they won't is sticking your head in the sand. They're a business, and they're about trying to please the customers.

Regardless of what fanboys loved or hated the film, the bottom line is that they're making these for the wider pool of potential customers , that being the GA.

If they feel audiences weren't as receptive as they could have been , and are concerned that will hurt them with other DCCU projects, you can be sure something is going to change moving forward.

Even if it does make a significant profit, they can't build an entire catalog of films on an almost overwhelmingly negative reception. With how expensive making and marketing these films are, they need the GA and their wallets on their side, not thinking, "Oh, Batman v Superman was disappointing, I think I'll skip this next movie too."

 

[smashmode]

WB PR folks spinning that BO.

 

[Sithborg]

Man if this lands at $850m, it'll probably tie Zootopia which is at $800m right now and still climbing, got dem strong bunny legs. Who would've imagined? I still think BvS has a good shot of reaching $900m.

Zootopia hasn't released in Japan yet. Just watch Japan put Zootopia over a billion...

 

[third3ye]

Zootopia hasn't released in Japan yet. Just watch Japan put Zootopia over a billion...

True, Frozen and BH6 both performed really well in Japan, we'll have to wait and see if Zootopia can continue that trend for DAS. However reaching a billion will be a stretch. BH6 did $76m there, and I don't think Zootopia will do Frozen's $249m. While not DAS but still a comp, Inside Out only did $33m there. Guessing somewhere closer to $900m WW is more realistic after Japan, especially with Jungle Book releasing in 2 weeks.

If BvS legs drop out at $850m, then I agree that a bunch of talking animals from an completely new and untested franchise has a very solid chance of beating the trio of Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman. If that happens I think WB need to start firing people, starting with our fan favorite director.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Speaking personally, if a film gets released in say...Australia early and people rave about it, that gets my attention and only serves to hype me up.

 

[Kanon]

Well, at least the wake up call of this film box office got WW a new release date

 

[The Joker]

Well, at least the wake up call of this film box office got WW a new release date

Really, did they push it back?

 

[Stark Bauer]

Really, did they push it back?

Original release date was June 23rd. It was moved up three weeks to June 2nd.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I dunno. Assuming the $3.9 million number from rth is accurate that's a nice percentage increase and officially takes it to like $702 million, so there's an opportunity for a "BvS surges 27% on Tuesday to top $700 million" headline.

Or you wait again until after close, combine it with OS numbers and do something like "BvS surges to $710 million with $12 million global take Tuesday." (I made the 12 million number up just to be clear, it's just an example.)

Could go wither way...we'll see.

Smart. Not a good long term strategy but a smart fix.

 

[InCali]

Really, did they push it back?

They moved it up 3 weeks. Here's the new release schedule. For the life of me, I don't understand the reasoning behind having so many of their solo effort after JL. I'd think they'd want to set the stage more, but I'm sure they have their reasons and know more about this $#!t than I do.

http://batman-news.com/2016/04/06/wonder-woman-dc-comics-movie-release-dates/

EDIT: Late....as usual.

 

[Micromind]

Even if it does make a significant profit, they can't build an entire catalog of films on an almost overwhelmingly negative reception. With how expensive making and marketing these films are, they need the GA and their wallets on their side, not thinking, "Oh, Batman v Superman was disappointing, I think I'll skip this next movie too."

Well, did the general audience thought like that when Bond's Quantum of Solace turned out to be an underwhelming movie ? No, the next Bond movie - Skyfall turned out to be the most successful movie ever.

Similarly, Iron Man 2 was not as well received as the first Iron Man movie, it did not get the same critical acclaim as the first one, but the next Iron Man movie, IM3 turned out to be the most successful IM movie.

Also, it's worth noting that despite the mixed and lukewarm reception of Superman Returns, Man Of Steel did well.

And lastly, Batman Begins was not exactly a huge block buster as it did not earn much still, we all know how much successful TDK was, so.

 

[-Arya-]

The numbers will go up if it's a quality film. Plain and simple.

 

[third3ye]

I actually think a staggered release would've hurt BvS, given the poor WOM.