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BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 4

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I stand corrected. They apparently have sold 125 million worth of tickets already. Wow.
 
Yeah I'm not buying the $125 million until official confirmation is released. Not saying it can't happen, but I've found no source on this yet.
 
I'm bad at numbers, that's good comparatively right ?
 
Here's the link



Schnepp just comes out with it around 3:18. Says they've already sold 125 mil in presales. No clue where he got that number from.

El Mayimbe says the official tracking numbers come out Thursday afternoon.
 
Here's the link



Schnepp just comes out with it around 3:18. Says they've already sold 125 mil in presales. No clue where he got that number from.


Yeah I'm calling BS on this now. I did a google search of the past 24 hours with Batman v Superman "$125 million" and I found nothing.
 
I'm also skeptical of $125M in presales in just 24 hours. The Force Awakens made somewhere over $100M in presales but that was over almost two months leading up to release and the only other movie we know of to make $25M (once again, in the entire run before release) was The Dark Knight.
 
Are these presale numbers counted towards the OW numbers? Since I'd imagine a good number of these presales are for showings during OW.
 
Are these presale numbers counted towards the OW numbers? Since I'd imagine a good number of these presales are for showings during OW.

If it's for OW it's for OW regardless of when they were sold.
 
if 125m presale is true, we'll see a Variety breaking news soon. (don't count on it)

the good boxoffice sign right now is Movietickets all tickets sold trend, right now,
BvS: 28%, Zootopia 12%, Deadpool 10%

if Deadpool's leg persists and Zootopia actually does well OW, BvS's pre-sale will be very good.
 
Due to my slight fanboyish nature i'm kinda hoping that Zootopia doesn't do well in the UK, mainly because of the fact that it releases the same day as Batman v Superman here. :oldrazz:
 
Not even Star Wars generated that much money that quickly. I cannot believe that figure to be even remotely accurate. $12.5 million I could buy but not $125 million.
 
I don't think it's US. Has to be WW or they meant something else. Maybe it's 12.5 and they got the decimal wrong. Anyway, there's a misunderstanding somewhere
 
I guess I’ll post a BvS prediction so I can mock myself later. My head fights with my heart on this one. I think for a comp I would start with The Dark Knight Rises and not Man of Steel since Batman is the more popular character. Adjusting for inflation, TDKR opened to ~$175M. Pros for BvS over TDKR: Superman (among other characters) is a notable draw among the general audience, growth in PLF screens, less family competition (4th week for Zootopia v. 2nd for Ice Age 4), Easter weekend, and (hopefully) no theater shootings. Cons: following less well-received film (MOS v. TDK, although I think this is perhaps overblown since Batman is the main draw), March release (probably minimal effect on OW but will effect weekdays), and possibly tone if it is deemed too dark for families with young kids (although I kind of doubt it since TDKR wasn’t all sunshine and puppies). Looking at that list, I think the pros probably outweigh the cons so a $185M opening is what I’m guessing. Of course, strong reviews could push that number higher while poor WOM might lead to a larger Sunday drop.
Likewise, the legs will be so dependent on reception and quality it is tough to guess. I would probably lean towards a multiple around TDKR (2.8) for a domestic gross of $515M+ as I was very encouraged by the final trailer and weekend grosses should remain large without much competition. Poor reviews and more notably WOM could mean legs more like MoS (2.5 for $460M) or AoU (2.4 for $440) while great ones would probably be closer to Avengers territory (3 for $555M) or even TDK (3.4 for $630), although that would be an outlier. Looking at the international markets, TDKR made around $637 back in 2012. While the dollar is quite strong against many currencies at the moment, the international growth in just the last few years has been pretty remarkable (primarily driven by China). A foreign gross of $800M (in the neighborhood of Iron Man 3, PotC: On Stranger Tides, and Skyfall) seems about right to me. My (admittedly haphazard, totally uninformed, and largely biased) predictions: $185M OW, $515M DOM, and $1.3B WW.
 
I don't think it's US. Has to be WW or they meant something else. Maybe it's 12.5 and they got the decimal wrong. Anyway, there's a misunderstanding somewhere

Presales could mean World Wide but Opening Weekend numbers are historically US.
 
I guess I’ll post a BvS prediction so I can mock myself later. My head fights with my heart on this one. I think for a comp I would start with The Dark Knight Rises and not Man of Steel since Batman is the more popular character. Adjusting for inflation, TDKR opened to ~$175M. Pros for BvS over TDKR: Superman (among other characters) is a notable draw among the general audience, growth in PLF screens, less family competition (4th week for Zootopia v. 2nd for Ice Age 4), Easter weekend, and (hopefully) no theater shootings. Cons: following less well-received film (MOS v. TDK, although I think this is perhaps overblown since Batman is the main draw), March release (probably minimal effect on OW but will effect weekdays), and possibly tone if it is deemed too dark for families with young kids (although I kind of doubt it since TDKR wasn’t all sunshine and puppies). Looking at that list, I think the pros probably outweigh the cons so a $185M opening is what I’m guessing. Of course, strong reviews could push that number higher while poor WOM might lead to a larger Sunday drop.
Likewise, the legs will be so dependent on reception and quality it is tough to guess. I would probably lean towards a multiple around TDKR (2.8) for a domestic gross of $515M+ as I was very encouraged by the final trailer and weekend grosses should remain large without much competition. Poor reviews and more notably WOM could mean legs more like MoS (2.5 for $460M) or AoU (2.4 for $440) while great ones would probably be closer to Avengers territory (3 for $555M) or even TDK (3.4 for $630), although that would be an outlier. Looking at the international markets, TDKR made around $637 back in 2012. While the dollar is quite strong against many currencies at the moment, the international growth in just the last few years has been pretty remarkable (primarily driven by China). A foreign gross of $800M (in the neighborhood of Iron Man 3, PotC: On Stranger Tides, and Skyfall) seems about right to me. My (admittedly haphazard, totally uninformed, and largely biased) predictions: $185M OW, $515M DOM, and $1.3B WW.

You have to also consider that the movie will have three full days in the US with Friday being Good Friday and most schools will be closed. That will boost the matinee prices a good deal and will allow others to take advantage of being off on Friday for Thursday night. So it will have a full day over other weekends.
 
Schnepp's tossed out some BS before so I'd caution on the side of him throwing out more BS for now. It's an insane number.
yeah, he did say some BS before that. I was like "whaaaaaaat" then I picked up on it. So maybe they're exaggerating as a way of saying the pre sales look good.
 
My (admittedly haphazard, totally uninformed, and largely biased) predictions: $185M OW, $515M DOM, and $1.3B WW.

looks good; I'd up OW to 200m though, and hoping US DOM pass TDK.

I feel that Batfleck and WonderGal will help the legs.

and seriously you need to do something with breaking up the wall of text.
 
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