advanced is half right. 07 will be enormously frontloaded, but 2008 will not be.
The only films that are really big hits nowadays are sequels and adaptions(and anything pixar), and the only films that are really front loaded nowadays are sequels; it just so happens all the big films nowadays are sequels. Pirates of the Carribean is the only live action film to have broken the 250 million since 1999's the Sixth Sense that WASNT a sequel or adaptation. 8 freaking years ago!
Word, sequels are where the money is and with 07 being extremely overloaded with the third film of 3 of the top 5 trilogy's ever coming out, may is coming to be utter chaos at the theaters. 2007's sequels will are
spidey 3, shrek 3, pirates 3, oceans 13, fantastic 4 2, rush hour 3, die hard 4, harry ptoter 5. Thats 8, and of them, only 1 of them-shrek 3-stands a decent chance at getting a 3.0 multiplier from its opening weekend, and that is amazingly frontloaded considered 5 years ago the average multiplier for these was over 4.
Add in Transformers has abig fanbase and should do superman numbers or bigger, and youve got one crowded summer.
But 2008 will be very different. The only frontloaded films will be The Dark knight and Narnia, and those will not be frontloaded compared to 2007.
-Iron Man is an adaption, but because it is not a proven franchise it will not open big. I expect a Batman Begins sized opening weekend around 45 million, maybe 50 million if it's marketed well, but nothing more. To be a big hit this will take word of mouth, because as it not a proven franchise, don't expect people to rush out to see it. They'll either wait for dvd ala Superman or go see if its good enough ala Batman. But it should get ATLEAST 40 million opening and ATLEAST 3.0 multiplier,
-Narnia-the last one was well recieved and a huge hit, and is a sequel, so the rush factor will be there, but with memorial day in its second week, noway thus has under a 3 multipler after an opening weekend around 80 million.
-indiana jones 4-this has the potential to be frontloaded, but like all the star wars prequels, these are the kinda movies people go see again and again, especially with june empty.
-incredible hulk-will openj very poorly, around 30 million or less due to horrendous wom of previous one. if any good it could top 4.0 multipler.
wall-e-it's pixar in june, itll do very well.
-tonight he comes-will smith will pwoer this a 50 million opener and with july weekdays noway it fall sun 3.0
-THE DARK KNIGHT- Will more then likely be 2008's biggest 3 day opener though id4 will beat its total; this will not get a 3.0 unless it opens under 80 million which wont happen. BUT due to July weekdays, it will def. do over 2.8 multiplier. JULY got the decently-recieved pirates 2 a 3.0 multiplier, even after its huge opening weekend.
