Black Panther: Wakanda Forever at the BoX Office

[psylockolussus]

Do you think it will gross over a billion?

Hmm yeah I think. I can see it grossing over $500 million in North America, if not $375 million minimum. I don't think November and December are crowded with big action movies so that should help. DC movies and Pandora Forever are the only ones I could think of.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I need to see the trailer first.

Too many variables.

 

[Gladius Nova]

Judging by the new trailer, I predict in the top 10 of all time. Between 1.6-1.8 billion.

 

[Filmfan93]

From the teaser alone, around 1.5 billion.

 

[metaphysician]

I'll be conservative and say "1B". The lack of Boseman, potential story problems related to that, the ongoing impact of the pandemic, plus the potential "lightning in the bottle" aspect of the first movie might drag it down. I won't exactly act shocked if it sells as much or more anyway, mind.

 

[legendkillin]

I think it will hit a billion because it has been so long, people want to see what they do aftr the loss of Boseman, and it ends the phase.
The first weekend will be huge
the story and impact will depend on if it crosses a billion.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

unless this movie gets terrible reception and falls off a cliff like Thor L&T and MOM, I don't think it's dropping that much from the first film, at least domestically. it could finish around the 690s or maybe it outgrosses the first film and has a furious 7 or TDK type of effect. It just needs to be great, not good, GREAT. Marvel also needs to get rid of the 45-day window Disney Plus for this film if they want to maximize their profits. Advertise it as a cinematic event like Top Gun is being advertised only in theaters. I think they would be foolish to put this on Disney plus early.

For now, my very early prediction is
680 domestic
450-500 million OS

We might see a slight decrease OS because no Russia, or China and if there is a Gay person in this movie, it will totally get banned in some other country over there.

 

[Albright]

Ach…that 45 days argument again…
Thors D+ release date isn’t even in discussion yet and it already faces huge drops at the BO. That has nothing to do with “I’d rather watch it at home” but more with it being not that good and rewatchable as expected.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Ach…that 45 days argument again…
Thors D+ release date isn’t even in discussion yet and it already faces huge drops at the BO. That has nothing to do with “I’d rather watch it at home” but more with it being not that good and rewatchable as expected.

Good point

 

[Silver Surfer]

Tracking Numbers are out:

OW: 180m - 225m
DOM: 445m - 590m

Should easily open 200m+ with good reviews.

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Tracking for Potential November Record Debut of $180M+ - Boxoffice

 

[legendkillin]

It comes out on 3 day weekend in US so should expect good number. I will probably only see it once unless blown away. Then the Thanksgiving week could be good for it on the 3rd week.

 

[Iceman]

Tracking Numbers are out:

OW: 180m - 225m
DOM: 445m - 590m

Should easily open 200m+ with good reviews.

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Tracking for Potential November Record Debut of $180M+ - Boxoffice

Looking very big then. $200m could well be on the cards.

 

[psylockolussus]

Should open higher than Madnesa of Multiverse and Top Gun: Maverick. I don't think it would outgross Top Gun: Maverick in North America though.

 

[Iceman]

The reviews will give a good idea of exactly how big this might get. Hopefully they are very positive.

 

[OroroGambitFan]

People don't fully grasp how special and how successful the first Black Panther movie did. I mean it made more money in the US than Infinity War did-- that's crazy! To say it over-performed that would be a gross understatement. The international was awesome but not on the same level domestically. No one thinks Wakanda Forever will match it's US box office this time around but if it could match 75% then that could still be good for a billion even without China because international (unlike domestic) should increase significantly. That international increase it follows the MCU models and movies before it should be smooth sailing. First 2 wks will tell the story-- if ur into box office numbers should be an interesting ride!

 

[OroroGambitFan]

unless this movie gets terrible reception and falls off a cliff like Thor L&T and MOM, I don't think it's dropping that much from the first film, at least domestically. it could finish around the 690s or maybe it outgrosses the first film and has a furious 7 or TDK type of effect. It just needs to be great, not good, GREAT. Marvel also needs to get rid of the 45-day window Disney Plus for this film if they want to maximize their profits. Advertise it as a cinematic event like Top Gun is being advertised only in theaters. I think they would be foolish to put this on Disney plus early.

For now, my very early prediction is
680 domestic
450-500 million OS

We might see a slight decrease OS because no Russia, or China and if there is a Gay person in this movie, it will totally get banned in some other country over there.

MoM did have a big second week drop but based off that wks drop it actually rebounded the next wk and needed up with a decent multiplier and ranks as the 2nd most successful movie of the year domestically and the 3rd worldwide.

Thor was way more front loaded but it still pretty much tied Batman worldwide.

so based on the success of those MCU movies Wakanda Forever seems a lock to be a success even under the worse of circumstances it's just a question of how high can it soar. Is the worldwide box office of TopGun even a possibility?

My guess is the top 3 movies of the year will be: TopGun, Wakanda Forever and Avatar but I have no idea the order of those 3 movies

 

[psylockolussus]

We haven't had a huge movie in months.

Summer 2022 wasn't a jam packed movie season in terms of boX office hits. It looked like more people are just waiting for these movies to come out in streaming services.

Wakanda Forever should outgross Love and Thunder. But I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are close to Multiverse of Madness in the long run.

 

[Iceman]

Hopefully a $200m opening weekend happens again.

 

[psylockolussus]

I voted for $900 million.

 

[Mysteryman]

I voted for $900 million.

You think Wakanda Forever will make LESS than Multiverse of Madness?

 

[psylockolussus]

You think Wakanda Forever will make LESS than Multiverse of Madness?

No. But they would be close to each other.

 

[Hannibal75]

I have no doubt that the movie will be huge in the US but will not fare as well overseas. The first film vastly underperformed both critically and financially here in Europe and from what I see there are still a lot of seats available only 48 hours before its premiere.

 

[OroroGambitFan]

I have no doubt that the movie will be huge in the US but will not fare as well overseas. The first film vastly underperformed both critically and financially here in Europe and from what I see there are still a lot of seats available only 48 hours before its premiere.

EVERY sequel movie has performed better over seas within the MCU so if ur right this would be the first movie to reverse that trend. I don't have a finger on the pulse of the rest of the world but I would be shocked if ur right. The movie did make over 100 million in China and that's out this time but I don't expect the other markets to fall off, if anything I'm guessing they'll increase. We won't have to wait long to find out though!

By the way the original made 650 million from international market take out China and u still have a very healthy and robust 550 million. The three biggest markets in Europe were UK (70 million), Germany (30 million) and France (23 million).

South Korea and Australia love the MCU so definitely expect those international markets to do well. But in a of matter of days we won't have to speculate-- we will know!!

 

[Hannibal75]

EVERY sequel movie has performed better over seas within the MCU so if ur right this would be the first movie to reverse that trend. I don't have a finger on the pulse of the rest of the world but I would be shocked if ur right. The movie did make over 100 million in China and that's out this time but I don't expect the other markets to fall off, if anything I'm guessing they'll increase. We won't have to wait long to find out though!

By the way the original made 650 million from international market take out China and u still have a very healthy and robust 550 million. The three biggest markets in Europe were UK (70 million), Germany (30 million) and France (23 million).

South Korea and Australia love the MCU so definitely expect those international markets to do well. But in a of matter of days we won't have to speculate-- we will know!!

Black Panther did worse than Captain Marvel and the same as Venom in the rest of the world. That's not exactly something to write home about considering the rave reviews it got in the US and the fact that it was the first comic book movie to be nominated for Best Picture.

 

[psylockolussus]

Its not going to have China money. The first movie earned over 100 million there. I also eXpect this to be as front loaded as Dr. Strange and Thor. The lack of T'Challa/Chadwick wouldn't fare well to everybody. If this was Chadwick's final movie this would have outgrossed the first film easily.