Dark of the Moon The 'Transformers 3' Box Office Prediction Thread

[Chris B]

It's early, but I figured since there's a thread like this in the Cap, GL, and Thor forums, it'd be worth having one like this here.

So what kind of box office numbers do you think TF3 will make?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the final domestic gross will fall somewhere into the $350-375 million range. Its biggest hinderance will of course be the mixed/less than stellar reaction to ROTF. I also don't think the absence of Megan Fox will have that much of an impact as suggested in some places.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

Domestic:$417 million.

 

[WarBlade]

I figured since there's a thread like this in the Cap, GL, and Thor forums, it'd be worth having one like this here.

Nah, you're flat out wrong with that guess.

 

[Marvin]

400 mill on the dot

unlike some films it will have to deal with a stacked summer, however not as stacked as 2012.

the absence of fox will play well imo, for this is a franchise that needs more of the same but also needs something fresh. and the trailers will look somewhat fresh with a new love interest as opposed to another glamour shot of fox(who isn't so popular anymore) plus I'm looking forward to seeing how bay shoots chicago.

 

[chaseter]

It will make less than the second movie.

I will guess $350 domestic. This thread should have a poll

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's obviously not going to make as much as the second film but thats not a problem because it will still be huge. I'm thinking 300 to 350mil.

 

[dark_b]

dont forget that TF3 will be in 3D and is using 3D cameras.

 

[chaseter]

Yes but couple in the second one leaving a bad taste and the really full 2011 summer.

 

[dark_b]

so even if it sells less tickets then Tf2 then with 3D it could come close to Tf2 numbers.

right?

 

[Marvin]

actually due to ticket sale inflation, this movies gross will be propotionately larger than the last, but that mostly depends on if reviewers bash the 3d or not.

 

[chaseter]

so even if it sells less tickets then Tf2 then with 3D it could come close to Tf2 numbers.

right?

I took into account 3D sales for my prediction. Next summer is jam packed full of big movies:

May 6 - Thor
Pirates 4 - May 20
Hangover 2 - May 26
Kung fu Panda 2 - May 26
X-Men Prequel - June 3
Green Lantern - June 17
Cars 2 - June 24
Transformers 3 - July 1

and here is the thing that is going to kill Transformers dead in the water

***Harry Potter - July 15
Captain America - July 22

That gives Transformers 2 weeks to haul in about $350 million if it is going to surpass the second and I just don't see it doing that...I am being nice and thinking it will make about $70 million after those two weeks...very nice.

 

[dark_b]

Captain America?

 

[chaseter]

Harry Potter will kill everything still in theatres when it opens.

 

[matrix_ghost]

I really don't see why everyone is thinking that potter will cause problems for tf 3 when the first and second tf movie also opened a week or two before a potter movie.
Yes worldwide potter outgrossed tf , but domestic tf won
2007:
tf1 319 million
hp ootp 292 million

2009
tf2 402 million
hp hbp 301 million

 

[chaseter]

1) This is the last book of the Potter franchise.
2) Revenge of the Fallen will have left a bad taste in people's mouths, see Wolverine. Everyone hated X3 and Wolverine suffered for it. Wolverine barely beat X1's domestic take!

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

But Wolverine sucked. It didn't deserve to make as much as X2.

a better example would be The Incredible Hulk because it was a fairly decent movie that followed a movie that was unpopular with the public.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I need to see a trailer before I predict TF3's gross.

 

[chaseter]

But Wolverine sucked. It didn't deserve to make as much as X2.

a better example would be The Incredible Hulk because it was a fairly decent movie that followed a movie that was unpopular with the public.

Revenge of the Fallen sucked and as you can see by these boards, people are weary to come back to get kicked in the balls again. Even if a movie sucks, see Spider-Man 3 for example, people will go out in droves because they think the movie is going to be awesome because the last film was awesome. This movie isn't coming off of an amazing second movie to get people hyped for the third film. So, my Wolverine example holds. The Spider-Man reboot won't make as much as SM2 or SM3 made because it is coming off of SM3.

 

[Figs]

Yes but couple in the second one leaving a bad taste and the really full 2011 summer.

How were the DVD/Blu-ray sales for it?

I'm just wondering how many people that make up the GA actually hated it compared to movie geeks like us.

 

[Jake Cassidy]

It was the highest selling dvd of 2009.

That, obviously, means that the majority hated it.

 

[Jake Cassidy]

edit

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

How many dvds did TF2 sell compared to TF1?

 

[chaseter]

It was the highest selling dvd of 2009.

That, obviously, means that the majority hated it.

No it wasn't, Twilight was...by a million units.

 

[chaseter]

How many dvds did TF2 sell compared to TF1?

Transformers sold over 13 million copies and Revenge of the Fallen sold just over 9 million. This is by year. In 2008 Transformers sold another 1.5 million copies. This year, Revenge of the Fallen isn't even in the top 50 selling dvds.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Actually I found this list.

Top 100 DVD Sales Of All Time

* as of 10 January 2010


1 1 FINDING NEMO Animated 23.600.000
2 2 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL J. Depp 21.500.000
3 3 SHREK 2 Animated 20.400.000
4 5 THE DARK KNIGHT Christian Bale, Michael Caine 18.793.000
5 6 TRANSFORMERS Shia LaBoeuf, Tyrese Gibson 18.270.000
6 4 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST Johnny Depp 17.383.000
7 9 CARS Animated 16.185.000
8 7 THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING Elijah Wood 16.000.000
9 8 THE INCREDIBLES Animated 15.600.000
10 10 THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS Elijah Wood 14.930.000
11 11 SPIDER-MAN Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst 14.769.000
12 12 THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH.. Georgie Henley 14.725.000
13 13 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END Johnny Depp 14.197.000
14 18 HAPPY FEET Animated 14.180.000
15 21 THE POLAR EXPRESS Tom Hanks 13.932.000
16 14 300 Gerard Butler, Lena Headey 13.900.000
17 15 THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING Elijah Wood 13.800.000
18 16 RATATOUILLE Animated 13.500.000
19 17 SHREK Animated 13.500.000
20 20 IRON MAN Robert Downey Jr, Terrence Howard 13.300.000
21 23 MONSTERS, INC. Animated 13.272.000
22 19 MADAGASCAR Animated 13.200.000
23 22 SHREK THE THIRD Animated 12.700.000
24 24 HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE Daniel Radcliffe 12.600.000
25 26 HARRY POTTER AND THE SORCERER'S STONE Daniel Radcliffe 12.400.000
26 25 THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST Jim Caviezel, Luca Lionello 12.040.000
27 27 SPIDER-MAN 2 Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst 11.723.000
28 30 HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF PHOENIX Daniel Radcliffe 11.637.000
29 28 HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN Daniel Radcliffe 11.600.000
30 51 TWILIGHT Kristen Stewart, Robert Pattinson 11.588.000
31 NE TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN Shia LaBeouf, Megan Fox 11.520.000
32 29 THE MATRIX Keanu Reeves, Laurence Fishburne 11.000.000
33 31 HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS Daniel Radcliffe 10.900.000
34 32 BATMAN BEGINS Christian Bale, Liam Neeson 10.810.000
35 35 THE NOTEBOOK Ryan Gosling, Rachel McAdams 10.680.000
36 33 STAR WARS: EPISODE II - ATTACK OF THE CLONES Ewan McGregor 10.500.000
37 34 WALL-E Animated 10.400.000
38 36 STAR WARS: EPISODE III - REVENGE OF THE SITH Hayden Christensen 9.850.000
39 37 ICE AGE Animated 9.500.000
40 48 MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING Nia Vardalos, John Corbett 9.470.000
41 NE UP Animated 9.433.000
42 38 PEARL HARBOR Ben Affleck, Kate Beckinsale 9.400.000
43 39 SHARK TALE Animated 9.400.000
44 40 KUNG FU PANDA Animated 9.335.000
45 41 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM Ben Stiller, Carla Gugino 9.300.000
46 44 ICE AGE 2: THE MELTDOWN Animated 9.289.000
47 NE THE HANGOVER Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms 9.121.000
48 42 NATIONAL TREASURE Nicolas Cage, Jon Voight 8.960.000
49 43 THE DEPARTED Leonardo DiCaprio, Matt Damon 8.940.000
50 45 THE MATRIX RELOADED Keanu Reeves, Laurence Fishburne 8.800.000