Rise of the Silver Surfer BOX OFFICE Discussion

[coreymb16]

Fantastic Four 2 will face a lot of competition in the weeks following its release. Evan Almighty, Ratatouille, Live Free or Die Hard and Transformers roll out over the three weekends following FF 2's release on the 15th.

Fox has a great marketing department, but it'll have its attention divided in June between their two big budget summer films: FF 2 and Live Free or Die Hard. FF 2 has the benefit of going first, but may not get as much follow-on marketing support as it would if Fox wasn't releasing Die Hard 4 just two weeks later.

Historically it's very unusual for a sequel to have a box office increase of more than 35% in comparison to its predecessor. Bigger jumps usually only happen when a small film becomes a home entertainment phenom and then gets a much bigger sequel (Austin Powers, for example).

Bearing all of that in mind, my predictions for FF 2 are:

$ 65 million opening weekend.
$ 165 million domestic.
$ 365 million worldwide.

Did you not see the trailer! This movie will truly be fantastic. Has a great story, more dramatic, more action, and more funnier. Fantastic Four 2 isn't the weakest the one you just wrote out has more competition than FF2.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

^ I know you're excited, but we don't have a running time yet. All movies look good in trailers. That's what they're designed to do. The story could be complete crap.

At this point I'll say 200 final, 62 opening, 375 ww.

 

[GL's Light]

Did you not see the trailer!

Yes, I did see the trailer and it's a strong one. That's why I'm predicting a rise in the box office over the first film. If the trailer was mediocre or weak, and if the Surfer wasn't in the film, then I'd be predicting a drop in the box office.

 

[Arkady Rossovich]

I would say around 200-210 million,nothing too special.

 

[GreenKToo]

65/70 mill opening weekend. around 170 mill dom. total.

 

[Ricky_Tan]

85m opening weekend

210 domestic

 

[Tempest19]

I don't know where to put this... I just find it funny and cool.

POTC3 is coming out in two weeks and the marketing is still ****ty.

FF2 on the other hand is coming out weeks after POTC3, I think maybe a more or so away... and the marketing is doing great!

In my theater I saw a 3-dimensional standee of the Silver Surfer!

The CW has the Alba and Evans on this Thursday (Smallville and Supernatural finalles)... or at least I'm pretty sure.

And then they got the Heroes finale booked.

Just had to drop in and say that the marketing department is doing a great job so far.

 

[Kelly]

Less than a year ago, POTC 3 had a huge trailer that did over a billion WW, it was called POTC 2. They don't need advertising.....

 

[Carp Man]

On Tuesday, I will be posting the official domestic, and opening weekend prediction thread. It will run for 30 days, and end on July the 14th. Then it will be time to make your fearless predictions. Put your money where your mouth is ladies, and gentlemen. t:

 

[Tempest19]

Does anyone here have more information about the whole FF2 thing this Thursday (I believe) on the CW?

 

[Hunter Rider]

On Tuesday, I will be posting the official domestic, and opening weekend prediction thread. It will run for 30 days, and end on July the 14th. Then it will be time to make your fearless predictions. Put your money where your mouth is ladies, and gentlemen. t:

And then it will be merged with this one,you've been told already

 

[Kelly]

Does anyone here have more information about the whole FF2 thing this Thursday (I believe) on the CW?

There is a spot airing with "Supernaturals"....check out the Sneak Peeks Thread...

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I just want to reiterate: This is this year's official Box office prediction thread. There is no need to create spin-offs on this same subject.

Thanks.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Less than a year ago, POTC 3 had a huge trailer that did over a billion WW, it was called POTC 2. They don't need advertising.....

Thankyou! The movie just came out last year and compared to other hyped up so-called summer blockbusters (SR) the advertising for the Pirates 2 was tame, I don't see why disney should go overbroad now. Going overboard helps some movies like the lame but huge Spidey 3 (It still hurts to talk about that disappointment) but it wouldn't do any good for POTC3...because the sequel just came out a year ago.

 

[liesse00]

I think this is going to do better than a lot of people think, just a hunch.

 

[Lobo]

Somewhere a little over 200 million domestic

 

[Downhere]

I'm thinking it can pull in 190-210 million domestically, a good increase from the first one and puts it on par with X2.

 

[Astacius]

I think ROTSS will blow by the original not only in $$ amount, but also in tickets sold mainly because of the Surfer. He has been one of the most popular characters in Marvel's history and there is no doubt in my mind what-so-ever that ROTSS will be a BO success story. I know I'm going to see it several times not only because I'm a fan of the comics as a whole, but mainly for SS. So here are my predictions:

OW - 85-90
DOM - 250+
OS - 300+
WW - 550+

 

[Fanticon]

the headlines for the 3 biggest films that came out in May have all read the same way in their second weekends at the boxoffice...words like "tumbles" or "plummets"...I honestly think people see something better in the movies coming out later this month and in July, I really do think FF2 might even come close to X3's take....I'm getting a good feeling for the marketing, the buzz, and as far the general public is concerned...they don't know its only 92mins...and just the other day my gf's mom laughed out loud at the "ya think!" tv spot...these are always good signs to me.

 

[Advanced Dark]

If FF2 makes over 200 million it would be truly amazing. I don't think it's possible unless it's just "that good" and an easy movie to watch over and over. It sounds like it might be as it gets right to the action and keeps on going.

 

[Excel]

tracking last week had it at 50 million...itll increase alot in the next 2 weeks. i say high 60's low 70's with a total between 170-180.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Opening weekend won't be less than 70 million. No way. These movies are becoming more and more heavily frontloaded. The 60% second weekend drop after a non-holiday weekend will soon be the norm for these type of films.

 

[YJ1]

I'm thinking it can pull in 190-210 million domestically, a good increase from the first one and puts it on par with X2.

That how I voted as well. FF2 won't touch X3's $234 domestic take but I'm hoping it'll run at $190. Advanced Dark voting the $170 million range gives me pause because he's usually good at tracking these things. I've been right far more then I've been wrong. So, I'll stick with my gut and the 190-200 range.

Until Transformers hits, the more I see of the competition, the less I fear them. Evan Almighty looks awful. I smell a serious tank there. Ratatouille and Live Free or Die Hard has very limited demographics. Die Hard has lost a lot of steam and Bruce Willis has been limping at the box office lately. (I loved the original Die Hard but watching John McClane actually running on the wing of an F-16 fighter jet in the trailer just turned me off. John McClane should never be about preposterous CGI action) Ocean's 13 is the only wild card I fear. They bring a lot of star power and a lot of publicity in to play. Ocean's 13 is all the hollywood hype shows (ET, Access Hollywood, etc.) are talking about and promoting right now.

 

[Cmill216]

I actually think Excel's initial numbers in the first post could be pretty darn spot on. A little on the high end, but still.

 

[Nokio]

I wasn't gonna do one, but now that imlooking forward to this again, i am!

This my take on how Ff's box office will go; I am an admin on boxofficefanatic.com.....guess what we discuss and predict all day? I am also a reg. poster on the World Of Kj, also a box office/film discusison website so I do know about this subject

Release Date
Opening on a Friday exactly two years after Batman Begins and less than 2 years after Fantastic Four, Rise of the Silver Surfer's release date pins it against Nancy Drew, a family movie aimed at young girls, after Oceans 13, a potential 100 million earner, and before Evan Almighty, the 180 million dollar comedy starring Steve Sarrell. Neither has much appeal to this film's main core audience of kids, teenagers, and action damns though EVAN takes away the comedy audience. That said, mid June does give it a shot at decent legs.

Marketing
As Fox's-the worlds greatest marketer-only big budget summer film, the marketing for this film should be enormous. Given the appeal, it's a sequel, and the quality of marketing we have seen thus far, it is safe to say this film will get fantastic marketing. After all, this is the studio who got X2 to get 4th highest opening weekend EVER at the time.


Original's word of mouth
It is rather obvious Fantastic Four was not the most well recieved film. It dropped on it's first Saturday(HIGHLY unusual for a kiddie/family film), dropped huge in it's second weekend, and had incredibly frontroaded dvd sales. That said, the interest in a good Fantastic Four movie is high and the original does have it's share of fans among kids and teenagers.

Prediction
Friday 6/15 - 28 million
Saturday 6/16- 27 million
Sunday 6/17- 20 million
Opening weekend = 75 million

Monday-Thursday=25 million

Opening week=100 million

2nd weekend=32 million -57%

Monday-Thursday- 12 million

3rd Weekend- 18 million-

Monday-Thursday-5 million

4th weekend-8 million

Total at this point=175 million

Overall total=195 million +205 million overseas=400 million worldwide

I can agree with your figures.