BOX-OFFICE potential in the Multiverse of Madness

[AvengerPA]

Variety is predicting $175 million for the weekend.

Box Office Pro predict $210 million
Weekend Box Office Forecast: Will Marvel Studios' Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Usher in Summer with a $200M Bow? - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

[InCali]

Variety is predicting $175 million for the weekend.

Box Office Pro predict $210 million
Weekend Box Office Forecast: Will Marvel Studios' Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Usher in Summer with a $200M Bow? - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

Man, BOP is looking at a VERY large number and I find it hard to believe it goes that high. That being said, I thought people were crazy when they were saying that NWH would hit 250M so what do I know. I do think MoM will be riding those coattails and a big, big opening is a given. 210M......whew.....BOP is pretty good at this. We'll see.

 

[HammerDown]

Does a 78-80% RT hurt a Marvel film opening weekend or count as lukewarm now? The interest, curiosity and discussion is still extremely high from what I've seen. Even so, theres a reason Raimi's Spider-Man 3 made a ton of money despite the reception and this isn't near that level.

No Way Home, Infinity War, End Game and Wandavision are the credibility with these two characters and not the RT. 3 of those are the biggest and most crowd pleasing films of all time. If this was even below 40% RT, it's gonna be hyped. Though I could be wrong, I think It would in the least take two below average (below 60% RT) Strange films to actually make a dent in box office. A 78-80% ain't turning anyone away.

The really important figure on the Tomatometer is the Average Rating. While the main percentage is what people look at the most, it’s the AR that really speaks of the films overall quality and hints at the critical lukewarm reception not to mention that there has been plenty of people outspoken on the subject.

We shall see how it performs, not only on the first weekend but also moving forward. Undoubtedly the OW will be big but not on the level people where claiming before and the lukewarm reception could be a precursor to how people really feel about the film, affecting the word of mouth and eventual BO legs. We shall see.

 

[Iceman]

Man, BOP is looking at a VERY large number and I find it hard to believe it goes that high. That being said, I thought people were crazy when they were saying that NWH would hit 250M so what do I know. I do think MoM will be riding those coattails and a big, big opening is a given. 210M......whew.....BOP is pretty good at this. We'll see.

It’s the level of presales already that’s made me think it will open big. Won’t even need particularly big walk up business with such a large guaranteed foundation.

 

[HammerDown]

Deadline - 160 to 180M
Variety - 175M
BOP - 210M

 

[Silver Surfer]

Disney/Marvel’s Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness began offshore release on Wednesday in 20 markets and is already doing some crazy numbers. With $27.2M through yesterday, the first-day overall results are only 4% below Spider-Man: No Way Home and a staggering 153% ahead of the original 2016 Doctor Strange, as well as 210% ahead of The Batman on a like-for-like basis at today’s rates.

I believe the technical term is: "Great Success!"

 

[InCali]

Disney/Marvel’s Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness began offshore release on Wednesday in 20 markets and is already doing some crazy numbers. With $27.2M through yesterday, the first-day overall results are only 4% below Spider-Man: No Way Home and a staggering 153% ahead of the original 2016 Doctor Strange, as well as 210% ahead of The Batman on a like-for-like basis at today’s rates.

I believe the technical term is: "Great Success!"

I've been low lately so maybe BOP is correct. It just seems CRAZY, but NWH is definitely giving this movie a big boost. Also, the fact that it's shorter than most Marvel movies should give it a little extra at the BO.

 

[Silver Surfer]

 

[Typhoon22]

I have a bad feeling about its legs. Maybe it was my cinema but there was a lot of not so great reactions, lots of bored people talking at certain points.

Wouldn't be surprised if the numbers fall off quickly in the upcoming weeks. I don't see it hitting 1B but we'll see.

 

[Filmfreak]

Top Gun Maverick would be lucky to open higher than 50 million in North America.

As of now, projections are at a 95-130 million opening.

 

[JKKS085]

If it opens anywhere near 200M in NA and with the first os numbers we’re seing I think 1B is going to be hard to miss. BTW the audience score so far on RT currently sits at 93% so people seem to enjoy it quite a bit. Focusing on critic average rating to gauge GA reception and predict box office outcomes seems super arbitrary.

I’m actually more concerned with the darker/horror undertones that might be too much for younger audiences/families. In any case with sky-high presales and fan interest through the roof there is going to be some degree of frontloading.

 

[psylockolussus]

crazy how Dr. Strange is now pulling big numbers just like Black Panther and Capt. Marvel. This sequel was way overdue anyway.

 

[Web-Head]

I can't see the word of mouth being too strong but it'll have a few weeks to dominate the BO until Top Gun comes out

 

[psylockolussus]

The second Downtown Abbey film comes out May 20th. The first one scored 200M worldwide and that stuff has a pretty big following.

Apparently Top Gun is actually predicted to open at 100M. The critical reception seems to be pretty good on that one.

i mean... what are the chances of Downton abbey 2 outgrossing the first film? Its a drama period film. As for Top Gun 2, I believe when I see it but internationally, it would be lucky to gross 500 million and I'm assuming it gets released in China.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Looks like $34-35M THU previews for #DoctorStrange in USA/CAN. Initial reception looks mostly positive. Strong pre-sales for the weekend, can go for $190-210M weekend depending on how it moves in the weekend.

Pretty much in line with BOP projections so far, way ahead of Deadline and Variety's.

 

[HammerDown]

First BO numbers coming in for DS:MOM and extra data for comparison.

Thursday Previews
Spider-Man: NWH - 50M
Doctor Strange: MOM - 36M
The Batman - 21.6M
———//———
Friday (* Thursday Previews Included)
Spider-Man: NWH - 121M
Doctor Strange: MOM - ?
The Batman - 56M

Saturday
Spider-Man: NWH - 73M
Doctor Strange: MOM - ?
The Batman - 43M

Sunday
Spider-Man: NWH - 64M
Doctor Strange: MOM - ?
The Batman - 34M

Opening Weekend
Spider-Man: NWH - 260M
Doctor Strange: MOM - ?
The Batman - 134M

 

[HammerDown]

Let’s see how well it does moving through the weekend, there where reports pointing to it being front loaded so the question is how much will it be and if we can already see effects of that in the OW.

It’s a great number to start with and one that was almost a given since I imagine those people coming in first had already made their mind about seeing it a while ago. Now comes the trickle down effect, word of mouth… Regardless it was always going to open big, the question remains of how big and we should be getting a clearer answer in the upcoming hours when the Friday numbers are tallied.

 

[Filmfreak]

i mean... what are the chances of Downton abbey 2 outgrossing the first film? Its a drama period film. As for Top Gun 2, I believe when I see it but internationally, it would be lucky to gross 500 million and I'm assuming it gets released in China.

And why do you think these are bad box office numbers? We're talking about a post-pandemic sequel to a 36 year old movie. These are very solid.

 

[Holy Slapper]

When does the Cinemascore come out?

 

[Erzengel]

Usually after opening weekend.

 

[Silver Surfer]

That’s the 2nd best preview during the pandemic after Spider-Man: No Way Home‘s $50M back in December. Overall, it’s the eigth largest preview performance ever, ranking behind Avengers: Infinity War‘s $39M in 2018.

Overseas for Doctor Strange 2 through the first two days stands at $85.7M, which is -12% behind No Way Home, +172% ahead of Doctor Strange and +197% ahead of The Batman on a like-for-like basis. Like Batman, Doctor Strange 2 doesn’t have China our Russia in its offshore bookings.

Another addition to the billion dollar club. On to Love and Thunder.

 

[InCali]

Yeah.....36M is a MONSTER number. A true 45-50M Friday almost assures an OW in the 200M range. For a movie like this, almost no matter the reception good or bad, you should see a drop off of over 50% next weekend. I would somewhat conservatively guess at a multiplier of about 2.25 (think Civil War), which would put in the neighborhood of 450M when all is said and done. This would put it squarely in line to join the 1B club. We will see, but International numbers look strong so far. Of course, all of this could change IF the public decides they don't like it. Looking at the fact that about 90% on RT said the "did" like it, that doesn't appear to be the case. I don't think a mid-to-high 70s score on RT is going to hold down it's box office. People don't generally decide to not go see a high profile movie like this because of a rating like that.

 

[MadVillainy]

And why do you think these are bad box office numbers? We're talking about a post-pandemic sequel to a 36 year old movie. These are very solid.

People expect everything to make 500 mill or be a bust. People are spoiled by superhero movie results.

As you said, Top Gun 2 is a sequel to a movie almost 40 years old. While Cruise is in it, other than Mission Impossible he hasn't had that many box office wins for like a decade. This would be the highest grossing movie Teller is in. If Top Gun 2 makes 500 mill that's a huge win

 

[InCali]

I didn't realize that there were 65M pre sales. That's a huge number, but will mean some front loading. I would expect a drop in the neighborhood of 57% or so. It's really going to depend on audience reception. I don't see it getting the same reception as NWH (few did) because the nostalgia factor isn't there. As a movie, I enjoyed NWH, but I don't really like the way Watts handled the main cast of characters.

 

[InCali]

crazy how Dr. Strange is now pulling big numbers just like Black Panther and Capt. Marvel. This sequel was way overdue anyway.

Marvel's strategy changed from the early days and it's added to the BO success of its movies. At first, they made pretty much standalone movies with some teases of things to come. Who can forget the Avengers tease in the credits scene of IM? Now, after their huge successes, the movies tend to be more interconnected and feed on the successes of earlier movies. MoM is a perfect example of this.