Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[Docker2.0]

I hate FOX-Men with a passion. I swore a solemn vow to never again financially support any Fax Marvel property after X3 and Origins. I have stuck to this. Now that's not to say I haven't seen all of the films but I do not go to the theater or give them money in any way. I thought First Class was pretty good and DoFP was decent, but I just don't feel they really understand the property to do it justice and they rely way too much on Jackman's Wolvie. Also the Channing as Gambit really pisses me off since he is so wrong for my fave X-Man. I am saying this as a fan of Channing too. I def want F4INO to bomb and bomb as hard as possible so the rights go back to Marvel, that's where they belong and the staple of characters they bring fits better in the MCU. As for the whole Marve vs DC thing, I always rib my DC friends but I am looking forward to their films. I do have my reservations because the last thing the genre needs is for any studios to start cranking out bad CBM's but besides a few idiot trolls here on the forums I have never seen anyone that takes it all that seriously.

Good man! Not going to lie, I do see Wolverine in theaters because he has made it known that he wants to be a part of the MCU and has been very vocal about Fox coming to terms with Marvel. I honestly hope that when he hangs the claws up that he gets a role in the MCU(Adam Warlock or Inhumans maybe?)just to say a big Avi you to Fox. I don't watch Xmen in theaters at all.

 

[InCali]

How does this compare to thor/cap first films? They both got sequels.

I think comparing it to GotG would be unfair as that was a big space film blockbuster. We hadn't had one in a while so people were interested.

WRT Thor, IM, and CA, the field is getting a lot more crowded now. Marvel was smart and got Downey with an almost perfect portrayal of Stark and it went ballistic (no pun intended). From there, Thor and Cap were perfect intros to the Avengers. We're moving forward with a LOT more characters and sequels are going to be a lot more selective.

What used to be B list characters are now part of the biggest Universe (can't say franchise anymore t: ) in terms of BO #s. Marvel has so many characters to mine and they are doing a good job of it.

My hat's off to them.

 

[KangConquers]

People weren't expecting this to make $500 million worldwide. Indeed, some people thought/hoped it would be an outright failure.

Off the reviews it's getting, it should have done better than it did. I'm not saying it's done terrible, but with the growth in the Marvel Universe, especially abroad, it should be curb stomping Thor 1, not struggling to match it.

 

[InCali]

Off the reviews it's getting, it should have done better than it did. I'm not saying it's done terrible, but with the growth in the Marvel Universe, especially abroad, it should be curb stomping Thor 1, not struggling to match it.

There's no formula for anything when it comes to human behavior. Very, very smart people have been trying, for a very long time, and with very little success, to use predictors.....

So and so says this should be that; she says no; he says something else....bottom line is that Marvel is doing just fine for the time being. Look at the big picture if you want to see a pattern. GotG "may" have been an outlier and Ant-Man might also. Both were very well done and IMO will serve the big picture well.

Think baseball. The best hitter/pitcher who ever lived isn't 100% successful. Greg Maddux was a pretty good pitcher, but he had his off games.

Anyone can point to a point in time to make a point (lotsa points around here, huh?), but the bottom line is that trends are just that.....trends. The next Marvel movie could tank (Edit: OK, CW won't, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone said it was "disappointing") and it might or might not be indicative of anything.

It's fun to think about whether certain types of movies are on the upswing or downswing and it's fun to predict BO totals, but to be honest, we just don't know. That's probably what makes it fun.

History is the best teacher.

 

[Steamteck]

Off the reviews it's getting, it should have done better than it did. I'm not saying it's done terrible, but with the growth in the Marvel Universe, especially abroad, it should be curb stomping Thor 1, not struggling to match it.

Qualitywise you are probably right but conceptwise , it may be less interesting to most folks and being a Marvel film is most likely what's getting most people in the door.

 

[InCali]

Qualitywise you are probably right but conceptwise , it may be less interesting to most folks and being a Marvel film is most likely what's getting most people in the door.

I think that's probably right (after the fact observations always sound the best). Thor is the frelling God of Thunder. Ant-Man is, well, he shrinks. It's no coincidence that Thor (another of the original Avengers) was done prior to Ant-Man and was in the Avengers movies. Same goes for Captain Frelling America.

 

[GL's Light]

From Deadline Hollywood:

Fantastic Four is expected to gross between $40M and $50M for the three-day weekend and MIRN may end up dropping around 50% or more to grab in the mid-$20M range. MIRN will still be holding onto its IMAX screens which will give it a nice boost.

The next installment of the Fantastic Four superhero franchise is tracking better than Ant-Man right now across all demos except older females and older males, so we will see how the tracking translates to ticket sales.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Doesn't surprise me that FF is tracking better. It's a much more well-known property with two prior movies. It will be interesting to see how well the tracking holds up once the reviews start rolling in.

 

[InCali]

From Deadline Hollywood:

I thought Ant-Man was thought to come in between 55 and 65M? Don't see how 40-50 is better.......?? Am I missing something?

EDIT: Some of the premium screens (Cinemark XD for example) will be showing FF.

 

[GL's Light]

I thought Ant-Man was thought to come in between 55 and 65M? Don't see how 40-50 is better.......?? Am I missing something?

EDIT: Some of the premium screens (Cinemark XD for example) will be showing FF.

It's tracking better in most demos, but lower in two of them. Plus it doesn't have 3D, so that knocks down its tracking numbers quite a bit.

 

[JKKS085]

It's tracking better in most demos, but lower in two of them. Plus it doesn't have 3D, so that knocks down its tracking numbers quite a bit.

The problem is that it's tracking lower in demos that are key to ensure a good traction amongst families and, during the week end (and later on) to ensure good legs (safe to say that things are only gonna get worse once reviews hit). This thing is going to sink faster the Titanic. As for the ow itself, I still think Deadline is being really optimistic. A 35-45 ow seems more realistic IMO with a distinct chance that it hits the lower end of that range even more so than the higher end.

1.89M for Ant-Man on Monday down 43% from last week. Better than CATFA on the same day (1.67M down 51.4%).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

‏@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN took in $1.89M on Monday. Domestic total stands at $134.22M.

 

[third3ye]

Has this crossed $300M yet?

 

[JKKS085]

Has this crossed $300M yet?

It probably has, at least at the end of the day, in a combination of both domestic and international gross but it won't be reported as Buena Vista updates the os totals only once a week. Based on the daily domestic update only I think it'll pass 300M on Friday. It should pass 325M ww after the week end.

 

[BerkleeBear314]

It made over 2M again on Tuesday. The legs on Ant Man are solid. This is a decent success for Marvel, especially considering it has yet to open in much of Asia! Should pass 400M globally.

 

[JOE]

It deserves to pass 400M... Sad how it will finish in third last WW out of the MCU. It's definitely in the top half of the films in terms of quality.

 

[JKKS085]

It deserves to pass 400M... Sad how it will finish in third last WW out of the MCU. It's definitely in the top half of the films in terms of quality.

4th last. It's (likely) gonna top Incredible Hulk (done), Captain America The First Avengers and Thor. I can see it grossing as high as 360M ww just with the current markets (dom + os holdovers), that is of course without China, Japan and a few other european markets that could account for another 100M+.

Domestically it's still pulling higher week days numbers than CATFA. Hoping it can match its -44,6% third week end drop (or improve on that). I still think 160M+ is a lock.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Right now, Ant-Man is globally at $296M WW. I hope by the end of its global run, it can help push the MCU past $9B WW.

 

[Comic Book Guy]

I think it'll end up around $430-440m when all is said and done, definitely a good haul on a $130m budget and in line with Cap and Thor's first movies. I'm not sure it could get $360m just off of the territories it's open in right now though lol. Maybe $340m on the very high end.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

$440M WW is what I'm hoping for. It could help Ant-Man push the MCU past $9B WW after 12 films in the MCU.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN earned $1.65M on Wednesday. Domestic total is now $138.1M.

That put the WW number at about $297.5 + whatever international BO has been rung up since last weekend.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN earned $1.65M on Wednesday. Domestic total is now $138.1M.

So that puts it unofficially at about $299 million WW...alllllllllllmost there....

 

[Sphene]

It earned $1.5 million on Thursday, domestic total at $139.6 million.
Which going by SomeOldGuy's estimates puts it at $300 million+ worldwide

 

[Vincanws]

@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN earned $1.65M on Wednesday. Domestic total is now $138.1M.

So that puts it unofficially at about $299 million WW...alllllllllllmost there....

Remember the oversea's box office is only reported on once a week as well. The movie's definitely already hit over $300M.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It earned $1.5 million on Thursday, domestic total at $139.6 million.
Which going by SomeOldGuy's estimates puts it at $300 million+ worldwide

Thanks, pasted the wrong tweet. Yeah, like Vincanaws said its over, we just don't have the official number yet. Good times, good times.