Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[InCali]

A Boba Fett movie is part of the Star Wars franchise.

Black Panther is part of the MCU franchise. Why? Because he'll star in Civil War and Infinity War. How can you argue against him being part of the MCU franchise if he makes these appearences?

It's like saying a Yoda spin off isn't part of the Star Wars franchise. Of course it is.

Yep. You're right and everyone who used to think about what a franchise is differently than you is wrong. Glad you got us all on the straight and narrow and now everyone is able to see the error of our thinking.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Yep. You're right and everyone who used to think about what a franchise is differently than you is wrong. Glad you got us all on the straight and narrow and now everyone is able to see the error of our thinking.

Oh please. It's one thing to say MCU is a different kind of franchise. Sure, no one is arguing against that, but saying MCU isn't a franchise is flat out wrong.

The stories, heroes and villains are all interconnected, no different from Star Wars or Harry Potter spin offs.

 

[metaphysician]

I think the problem is that we are used to 'series' and 'franchise' being interchangeable. Sure, you have spinoffs, but they are usually insignificant compared to their source series. The MCU changes things, because its an entire franchise built of multiple series that are continually tied to each other. Its like having every single movie be a spinoff of multiple other ones.

I think its best to treat the MCU as one single franchise, and thus, yes, it gets to be compared with things like Harry Potter or Star Wars. After all, note that both are getting significant spinoffs, themselves.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Ant-Man added $990,758 on Wednesday for a domestic total of $151,125.022.

If I'm reading this site:

http://www.cinetel.it/index.php?option=com_cinetel&link=1&action=ieri&controller=boxoffice

right, AM racked up €427,698 (about $474K at current exchange rates) on on opening day (yesterday) in Italy.

 

[InCali]

Ant-Man added $990,758 on Wednesday for a domestic total of $151,125.022.

If I'm reading this site:

http://www.cinetel.it/index.php?option=com_cinetel&link=1&action=ieri&controller=boxoffice

right, AM racked up €427,698 (about $474K at current exchange rates) on on opening day (yesterday) in Italy.

Ant-Man is pushing 160M by the end of the weekend. It ends up in the high 160s or around 170 when all is said and done. Great legs for this movie and a very impressive multiplier.

 

[Mike Murdock]

Yep. You're right and everyone who used to think about what a franchise is differently than you is wrong. Glad you got us all on the straight and narrow and now everyone is able to see the error of our thinking.

Look. An argument over what the word franchise means is irrelevant. If you don't think what we're describing counts as a franchise, find a word that fits both the Harry Potter films and the MCU and tell us that word instead. Until that point, it's unhelpful to quibble when it's clear what's being talked about.

 

[InCali]

Look. An argument over what the word franchise means is irrelevant. If you don't think what we're describing counts as a franchise, find a word that fits both the Harry Potter films and the MCU and tell us that word instead. Until that point, it's unhelpful to quibble when it's clear what's being talked about.

Well, I'm not the only one quibbling here......what I'm saying is that I think the "Harry Potter" franchise, as I see it, is very, very different from what people call a MCU franchise. It therefore doesn't really make sense for me to find a word that describes both of them in the same way (as you are suggesting I do). Know what I mean?

I could call Harry Potter a "standalone" franchise if that makes people feel better and people could call MCU a "spinoff" franchise.

I recognize that Ant-Man lives in the same world as Thor, CA, IM, etc. I'm pointing out the "differences" between MCU and HP because I don't think the $$$ comparisons really hold. One had fewer movies and was focused on a very specific group of people as protagonists. The other (the one with more movies and therefore more money) is a sprawling universe with characters who have varying, and relatively loose, ties to each other and are the star of their own movies. All I ever really said is that it depends on your definition of what a franchise is.

One of the things I notice about these forums is something I came across many years ago when email first became popular. We tend to focus on one statement or part of what someone is saying and it's hard to encompass the entirety of it because our posts are so broken up.

A Harry Potter "franchise" is different than a MCU "franchise" (if that's how your term it) and all I was doing was pointing out the differences and why more MCU movies made more $$$ than fewer, more individualized HP movies.

So, I think we can agree to stop quibbling. I don't intend to go any further with this as I've done the best I can to explain myself.

 

[InCali]

According to Forbes:
Box Office: 'Straight Outta Compton' Scores Huge $4.96M Thursday

My guess is that this will front load heavily. What do people think Ant-Man will do? I'm thinking around 5M??

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yeah, SOC is going to have a big weekend, probably $40 million+. Getting good reviews, too, 87% on RT.

 

[InCali]

Yeah, SOC is going to have a big weekend, probably $40 million+. Getting good reviews, too, 87% on RT.

I think it's going to be very attractive to a certain segment (mainly younger people). My daughter is very interested in seeing it. Me, not as much, but I just may check it out. It looked kind of interesting to me.

I used to live "Just Outta Compton" and would have preferred that name. t:

Edit: Several years ago, they changed the street name from "Compton" to "Marine" once you got west of the Harbor Freeway. I guess the high falootin cities like Gardena didn't want a street named Compton in their fair city.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$925,231 for Thursday for a $152,050,253 domestic total. Screen Daily puts the international number at $183.4, so AM is around $335.45 WW headed into the weekend.

 

[marcvader]

So I'm going to go with a $169 final domestic.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Look. An argument over what the word franchise means is irrelevant. If you don't think what we're describing counts as a franchise, find a word that fits both the Harry Potter films and the MCU and tell us that word instead. Until that point, it's unhelpful to quibble when it's clear what's being talked about.

The industry refers to the MCU and things like it as a mega-franchise. It already has a name and classification but still counts as a franchise

 

[JKKS085]

So I'm going to go with a $169 final domestic.

I'm hoping for at least $171,676,578. That would give it a very nice X3 multiplier, just behind Guardians Of The Galaxy and Iron Man and in line with Avengers.

Ant-Man grossed $925,000 in its 28th day of release. Captain America The First Avenger did $810,000 in its 28th day of release and went on grossing another 16M before the end of its theatrical run. A similar take would put Ant-Man at 168M dom. However its grossing roughly 15% higher than Cap in dailies so if it keeps that pace it could very well get to 170M+.

 

[InCali]

So I'm going to go with a $169 final domestic.

That's in the general neighborhood I see also.

Oh man, I hope they do a good job on Dr. Strange. The visual $#!t could be killer. Plus, Cumberbatch is a really, really good actor.

 

[InCali]

I hoping for $171,676,578. That would give it a very nice X3 multiplier, just behind Guardians Of The Galaxy and Iron Man and in line with Avengers.

Ant-Man grossed $925,000 in its 28th day of release. Captain America The First Avenger did $810,000 in its 28th day of release and went on grossing another 16M before the end of its theatrical run. A similar take would put Ant-Man at 168M dom. However its grossing roughly 15% higher than Cap in dailies so if it keeps that pace it could very well get to 170M+.

There's not a particularly strong field in the near future.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN earned an estimated $1.525M on Friday. Domestic total is now $153.575M. #AntMan

It'll likely pull in another $4 million or so today and Sunday.

 

[InCali]

@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN earned an estimated $1.525M on Friday. Domestic total is now $153.575M. #AntMan

It'll likely pull in another $4 million or so today and Sunday.

Cool. I figured about 5M this weekend. If it continues with the (about) 40% drops, it will cross the 170M mark. Nothing out there looks that interesting after this weekend so I don't see why it won't. It also bodes well for MI:RN. It's looking very strong.

Did Box Office Mojo just crash? (EDIT: Never mind....it seems to be back)

 

[SCC]

ANT-MAN: $189.5M Overseas Total / $347.068M Global Total

 

[JKKS085]

Estimated we is $5,517,000 dropping 30% from last week end.
That is 34% ahead of CATFA's $4.11M fifth week end.
Current domestic total is at $157.56M, 170M+ seems a definite lock now and will make Ant-Man one of the leggiest MCU film.

International is still strong, boasting past 340M ww (in fact closing in on 350M). The film should be well past 360M before it opens in its last slate of international markets in September (South Korea, Greece, China & Japan). In fact probably closer to or even past, 370M ww if the current trend holds.

That is an amazing success for Marvel, one that was built on wom (which is also a testament of the quality of the movie).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I've seen conflicting info on the SK release date. Some places say Sep. 3, others August 20. Guess we will find out in a few days!

 

[InCali]

Estimated we is $5,517,000 dropping 30% from last week end.
That is 34% ahead of CATFA's $4.11M fifth week end.
Current domestic total is at $157.56M, 170M+ seems a definite lock now and will make Ant-Man one of the leggiest MCU film.

International is still strong, boasting past 340M ww (in fact closing in on 350M). The film should be well past 360M before it opens in its last slate of international markets in September (South Korea, Greece, China & Japan). In fact probably closer to or even past, 370M ww if the current trend holds.

That is an amazing success for Marvel, one that was built on wom (which is also a testament of the quality of the movie).

That's a really, really good hold. Compliments the FF hold nicely (30% drop vs 30% hold). I can't foresee a scenario where it doesn't pass FF next weekend.

AM "is an amazing success for Marvel, one that was built on wom (which is also a testament of the quality of the movie)". FF not so much. It does have something in common with AM as its BO results were "built on wom".

 

[JKKS085]

That's a really, really good hold. Compliments the FF hold nicely (30% drop vs 30% hold). I can't foresee a scenario where it doesn't pass FF next weekend.

AM "is an amazing success for Marvel, one that was built on wom (which is also a testament of the quality of the movie)". FF not so much. It does have something in common with AM as its BO results were "built on wom".

t: Very true. And it's comforting. I like those (too rare for my tastes) occasions when a film is rewarded at the box office for its quality.

The hold is even more impressive because the film lost 608 theaters and managed about the same PTA as last week end. And speaking about PTA, in its 5th week end it completely destroyed FF's second week end ($2,392 vs $1,998).

 

[InCali]

t: Very true. And it's comforting. I like those (too rare for my tastes) occasions when a film is rewarded at the box office for its quality.

The hold is even more impressive because the film lost 608 theaters and managed about the same PTA as last week end. And speaking about PTA, in its 5th week end it completely destroyed FF's second week end ($2,392 vs $1,998).

As time passes, I hope that people start to differentiate between Marvel (MCU) and Fox Marvel (though Fox is clearly doing a better job with X-Men than it did with other Marvel properties). At some point, the "chancey" MCU movies hopefully won't be so "chancey" because MCU has pretty consistently done a very good job on their less well known properties. As a matter of fact, the first efforts on the 2 "lesser" known franchises in MCU (GotG and AM) are, overall, at least as good as the vast majority of the well known standalone franchises (CA/Thor/IM). I hope this translates into public trust for Dr. Strange, Black Panther, Captain Marvel, and Inhumans (co-starring the FF ) and I pray MCU does as good a job on them as they did on AM and GotG.

If they keep the focus, we can all have a lot of fun for the next 5 years (at least).

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

As time passes, I hope that people start to differentiate between Marvel (MCU) and Fox Marvel (though Fox is clearly doing a better job with X-Men than it did with other Marvel properties). At some point, the "chancey" MCU movies hopefully won't be so "chancey" because MCU has pretty consistently done a very good job on their less well known properties. As a matter of fact, the first efforts on the 2 "lesser" known franchises in MCU (GotG and AM) are, overall, at least as good as the vast majority of the well known standalone franchises (CA/Thor/IM). I hope this translates into public trust for Dr. Strange, Black Panther, Captain Marvel, and Inhumans (co-starring the FF ) and I pray MCU does as good a job on them as they did on AM and GotG.

If they keep the focus, we can all have a lot of fun for the next 5 years (at least).

Well when Fox does things like have the Marvel logo they are allowed to use in front of their FFINO commercials to try and deceive the GA since they also never show the Fox logo you can forgive some people for getting the studios mixed up