Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[InCali]

Ant-Man held really, really well last weekend. Given the upcoming releases, I think it's a virtual lock to pass 170M US/Canada. It came in 6th in its 5th week of release. The only movies that are bringing in more money are movies that were released at least 2 weeks after AM (ie movies with 1, 2, or 3 weeks in release) and AM looks to pass FF sometime this week if percentage continue anything close to the current trends.

It's actually a very impressive run for a "lesser" known character and, as people have said, it's due to the fact that it is a quality movie with a little bit of something for everyone.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Weekend domestic #'s from boxoffice.com:

DATE DAILY GROSS
Aug 16, 2015 $1,665,055
Aug 15, 2015 $2,290,327
Aug 14, 2015 $1,538,035

So just a tiny bit below $5.5 million total. International report:

Ant-Man burrowed to $5.6 million (-39%) from 51 territories this weekend, lifting its overseas total to $189.5 million and its worldwide total to $347.068 million after 5 weekends of release. The diminutive Marvel superhero flew into Italy this weekend and opened to $2.2 million, while holding well in Australia (-35%), Mexico (-28%), France (-38%), UK/Ireland (-41%), Germany (-41%), and Spain (-44%). Ant-Man opens in South Korea on September 3 and in Japan on September 19.

 

[Superhero 101]

So is 400 Million still happening?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

So is 400 Million still happening?

Yeah. It still has South Korea, Japan and China to go, plus whatever's left in the tank from the domestic and existing international markets (probably $20-30 million would be my guess).

 

[InCali]

So is 400 Million still happening?

400 is a lead pipe lock if it plays in China (and I'm sure it will) as a matter of fact, I think 450 is pretty much a done deal.

 

[InCali]

Speaking of Box Office numbers. When it comes to ranking the box office of a movie, I give re-releases an asterisk. For example, I think of Titanic as #4 all time domestic BO as it hit 600M in its first release. In total, it is #2. I just sort of think that comparing a movie that has had a major re-release isn't comparing apples and oranges (though comparing movies 20-30 years ago isn't apples to apples either).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$686,205 on Monday, total domestic now $158,229,875.

 

[Raiden]

I'm glad Ant-Man is having a good run at the box office. It shows that Marvel has gotten the skill of making unknown superhero into household name down pat.

 

[InCali]

Yeah. It still has South Korea, Japan and China to go, plus whatever's left in the tank from the domestic and existing international markets (probably $20-30 million would be my guess).

It probably has 10M+ left in US/Canada alone. How do you think it'll play in Japan, China, and SK? I can't see it coming in less than 450M and probably substantially more than that. I think the humor will play well in translation as there isn't a heavy use of idioms (like there was in GotG.....my reflexes are too fast).

 

[Themanofbat]

It probably has 10M+ left in US/Canada alone. How do you think it'll play in Japan, China, and SK? I can't see it coming in less than 450M and probably substantially more than that. I think the humor will play well in translation as there isn't a heavy use of idioms (like there was in GotG.....my reflexes are too fast).

Do the domestic numbers include Canada? Or just the US?

I've always figured that Canada's numbers were considered in WW...

 

[SomeOldGuy]

How do you think it'll play in Japan, China, and SK?

I think it will get over $100 million. But I may be too.

 

[Spiderdevil]

en route to 170m domestic eh?

Sad Dalonewolf got banned, remember him claiming it would 'struggle to make 120-130m' when the opening weekend numbers came in

 

[InCali]

Do the domestic numbers include Canada? Or just the US?

I've always figured that Canada's numbers were considered in WW...

DOM = US/Canada.

 

[InCali]

I think it will get over $100 million. But I may be too.

I think so too. I think it can possibly get in the 475-500M neighborhood. Not bad for a "risky" 130M movie that nobody was going to care about. When you think that Fox spent 120M on FF.........

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Toss another $920k on to the pile from Tuesday. $159.15 total domestic now.

I think so too. I think it can possibly get in the 475-500M neighborhood. Not bad for a "risky" 130M movie that nobody was going to care about.

If it does do as well as I hope in China/Japan/SK and the WW total starts to push or even gets to $500 million, I wonder how that impacts Marvel's thinking about a sequel.

 

[JKKS085]

en route to 170m domestic eh?

Sad Dalonewolf got banned, remember him claiming it would 'struggle to make 120-130m' when the opening weekend numbers came in

dalonewolf said so many things during its unfortunately short lived presence here. I'm pretty sure he wouldn't care being proven wrong once again. It happened so many times.

 

[chamber-music]

It would be great if it beats The Wolverine box office ($414.8 million)

 

[kedrell]

^I think that's highly likely.

 

[kedrell]

I think it will get over $100 million. But I may be too.

Between all three I'm optimistic that it can be done. Add another $20m or so DOM and foreign holdovers and you're looking at around Thor1/X3 numbers WW. Not bad for tiny Ant-Man. Captain America built up a billion $ franchise with less.

 

[kedrell]

If it can keep the weekend drops low like this last one for the next 3 weeks or so then I can see it's DOM total getting to Thor1 numbers or so. I'd love it if this can beat PP2 from this year($183m). I'd give it a 50/50 shot at that amount at best though I'm confident it'll pass CA:TFA at least DOM.

 

[Tymminator]

I'm glad its doing so well.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$660,581 for Wednesday, putting its domestic total just shy of $160 million ($159,810,001). Thursday #'s will put it over that mark.

 

[InCali]

$660,581 for Wednesday, putting its domestic total just shy of $160 million ($159,810,001). Thursday #'s will put it over that mark.

That puts it about 160K behind FF. We'll see what happens this weekend when FF loses a bunch of its screens. Any predictions?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

From me? Nah. But FWIW Boxoffice.com is predicting $3.9 million for FF, $3.8 million for AM. In other words it's pretty much a coin flip.

 

[InCali]

From me? Nah. But FWIW Boxoffice.com is predicting $3.9 million for FF, $3.8 million for AM. In other words it's pretty much a coin flip.

Since I opened my big mouth and said AM would catch FF this weekend, I guess I'll have to stick with it. That's an over 50% drop for the 3rd weekend for FF and about another 30% weekly drop for AM.

Probably some people sitting around in a room saying "Man FF really tanked the second weekend. It can't do THAT bad again. Can it? Let's just say a little over 50%. Ant Man's been dropping about 30% so let's just keep it there. Anyone else? OK, done."