Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

kedrell said:
If the ratio against GotG holds all the way through then Ant-Man should finish in South Korea with $14-15m. GotG finished there with $10m.

I only hope it can have such a ratio against GotG in China and Japan. ;) If so then $500m WW is getting crossed for sure, maybe $550m.

That'd be $138m in China and $13-14m in Japan.
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Yup. I think $500 million is getting pretty close to a lock at this point. Depends on what the eff is up with China. There's still no confirmation on the rumored 18th release date. You'd think by now it would be nailed down but who knows what's going on behind the scenes.
 
Yep, the bulk of what's left is with China. Japan + South Korea will probably add up to around $25-30m, enough with the other holdovers to push it over the $400m WW mark but China is the coup de grace. I'd be surprised if it made less than at least $60m there and I'm counting on it making at least that much because then 2015 will take the crown from 2013 in terms of total MCU WW box office for their combined best year ever.
 
kedrell said:
Yep, the bulk of what's left is with China. Japan + South Korea will probably add up to around $25-30m, enough with the other holdovers to push it over the $400m WW mark but China is the coup de grace. I'd be surprised if it made less than at least $60m there and I'm counting on it making at least that much because then 2015 will take the crown from 2013 in terms of total MCU WW box office for their combined best year ever.
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I'm thinking SK and Japan may be a little bit more. We'll see what the weekend take in SK is.

Looking at SK numbers got me thinking about Snowpiercer (which I really, really liked) and also got me wondering why it didn't have a wider release in the US. Did they just not think it would make any money or is someone upstairs pulling strings and making sure US movies get released (as I've wondered about what the deal is in China with their restrictions)? Probably has something to do with distributors?? Anyone know?
 
SomeOldGuy said:
It's a tedious, stupid tale.The Boston Globe broke it down here:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/arts/mo...snowpiercer/XOoYjxsOisSUhgut1dSfmJ/story.html

Back on topic, looks like Ant-Man added about $1.5 million Friday in Korea.

Edit again: $248,841 domestic added Thursday.
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Weekend prediction: Ant-Man winds up ahead of Minions, Jurassic World, The Gift, and American Ultra this weekend and gets the 10th spot for the weekend; its last weekend in the top 10, but pretty impressive for a movie starting its 8th week in release. Heck, 11th would be impressive.

FF gets passed by Pixels and finishes out of the top 20 (in 22nd); not bad for top notch superhero movie starting its 5th week in release. :o After this weekend, FF will be bringing in virtually nothing.
 
I was looking at the full week drops from one to another and they've kept getting smaller. This week with the holiday boost I actually expect to outgross last week by a slim 1% or so(just around $4.2m for the entire week) which will put it at about $174.5m heading into next weekend. But this week is an anomaly due to the presence of the holiday. Prior to that though, it's last week-to-week drop was 26.8%. Now if it can maintain THAT level of weekly drops then it'll pass Pitch Perfect 2 by the end of it's 13th week of release. That's assuming nothing much changes, which likely isn't going to happen. It's going to start losing screen numbers sooner or later and how that will effect it is tough to forecast. But it's placement toward the end of summer will help keep it in theaters longer than a spring or early summer release would stay in theaters(those usually get around 11 weeks or so and that's it). Ant-Man could get anywhere from 12 to 16 weeks in total.
 
Agreed. Honestly I don't see what displaces it the rest of September at least. Aside from the Maze Runner movie there's really nothing in the action/adventure genre, and like you say its drops are gentle enough that theaters have no reason to rush it out. Heck, FF is still over 1,000 theaters because there's nothing worth replacing it with and it's making like 89 cents a screen.
 
Booooooooom. $170million domestic. Leavin' the naysayers that trolled this board early on in the dust. Can't wait for the rest of the WW numbers to come rolling in.

MATDTev.jpg
 
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I'm still waiting for it to hit China. If China can save Terminator: Genysis, who knows what the results for Ant-Man will be.
 
Deadline Hollywood is reporting a $601K Friday and predicting $2.9m for the 3-day and $3.97m for the 4-day weekend.

Edit: $631K is the official Friday estimate at BOM.

Deadline upped their estimates in light of this with their 3-day at $3.02m and 4-day at $4.05m. If they are highly accurate(which is dubious) then it'll be at $174.35m by the end of Monday.
 
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Mike Murdock said:
I'm still waiting for it to hit China. If China can save Terminator: Genysis, who knows what the results for Ant-Man will be.
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For some reason that many of us from California have yet to figure out, they frelling LOVE Arnie in China. :huh:

Hopefully, even with the bad currency exchange that exists, AM can get a good run and/or a better placement in China than 9/18. It looks, however, that at least it's tacked on to the end of the string of movies being released.

You'd think Disney would have a little more pull over there and get the release delayed by a week or something like that.

Has 9/18 been absolutely confirmed??
 
Early Saturday # for Korea is about $3.4 million, putting it over $6.2 million with Sunday to go.
 
InCali said:
You'd think Disney would have a little more pull over there and get the release delayed by a week or something like that.
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That's not how it works over there.
 
Hey guys,

I went to see Ant-Man tonight because...well, I had nothing to do and hadn't seen it in several weeks. So by now, it's playing in the smaller screens here and only 3 or 4 times a day. Well, I caught the 7:15 show, expecting it to be a mostly empty theater--if anybody at all. In fact, I was so confident that it'd be a light crowd that I took my time: I came in late around 7:30 (I hate sitting through previews) thinking I'd have my pick of seating anywhere. Well, man I was surprised. The theater was packed. And I do mean, PACKED. Only the very front row had a few seats open. It was the damnedest thing. And I couldn't help but smile to myself throughout the film because it was clear that so many of the audience was made up of first-timers.

That's what you call powerful word of mouth. This film has manifested truly fantastic legs. :up::up::up:
 
Great to hear, LS! Maybe we will get that $3 million weekend after all.

OW tally from Korea is just a bit below $9.3 million! Looking at other Marvel movies a multiplier in the 3x OW neighborhood seems usual so it could finish near $30 million by the end of its run.

New global total:

@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN: $210.5M Overseas Total / $383.69M Global Total #AntMan
 
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Lightning Strykez! said:
Hey guys,

I went to see Ant-Man tonight because...well, I had nothing to do and hadn't seen it in several weeks. So by now, it's playing in the smaller screens here and only 3 or 4 times a day. Well, I caught the 7:15 show, expecting it to be a mostly empty theater--if anybody at all. In fact, I was so confident that it'd be a light crowd that I took my time: I came in late around 7:30 (I hate sitting through previews) thinking I'd have my pick of seating anywhere. Well, man I was surprised. The theater was packed. And I do mean, PACKED. Only the very front row had a few seats open. It was the damnedest thing. And I couldn't help but smile to myself throughout the film because it was clear that so many of the audience was made up of first-timers.

That's what you call powerful word of mouth. This film has manifested truly fantastic legs. :up::up::up:
Click to expand...

It's just such a shame that other films like Dredd couldn't do the same.
 
Well down goes CA:TFA WW. Another week'll see it go down DOM as well. Next up: Thor.
 
rashad said:
That's not how it works over there.
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Yeah. I was reading an article in the LA Times talking about how China has very different motivations than what you would think. It was rather interesting.

The gist of the article was that they are more interested in figuring out how the movie industry works than short term profits in their partnerships.
 
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