Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[Tilapia]

1.7 billion is your magic number. The only thing I would fear is that Apocalypse will cut into repeat viewership. Ultron numbers would be a disappointment. I think 1.5 is the floor here. If it stays above 90% then absolutely it's the floor. You can quote me in a few months people.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

1.4b would be a disappointment? Wow, I dunno. I'd call that solid. But Given the current hype level -which is still growing - maybe you're right.

 

[Iceman]

It wouldn't be an actual disappointment, but if you look at CW as the equivalent of an Avengers film (and the airport battle sounds at least as epic as any Avengers film action) then it can make that sort of money especially given the reception is looking like it will be a lot better than AoU.

 

[Solaire]

I think something is wrong when Captain America 3 earns 1.4 billion and is still a disappointment. I always felt it would earn a billion and that was before RDJ joined the cast and it was titled Civil War. Felt it would go the same route as the Iron Man films.

 

[Bruce Malone]

It wouldn't be an actual disappointment, but if you look at CW as the equivalent of an Avengers film (and the airport battle sounds at least as epic as any Avengers film action) then it can make that sort of money especially given the reception is looking like it will be a lot better than AoU.

It is called Captain America: Civil War. If Marvel Studios really wanted to make the Civil War story-line on par with an official "Avengers" film they'd include all of the Avengers as it'd make sense given the story-line.

I don't think people should look at this as Avengers 3. More like a super-sized Captain America or more likely somewhat larger Iron Man sequel.

 

[Kanon]

I think he means that is equivalent to Avengers box office-wise, from audiences POW. IF we treated it as a Cap movie, the box office bar is way lower, and a wild success would be something in the 350-400 DOM, 400 OS.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I don't think it should be considered on par Box Office wise to an official Avengers film.

If Marvel wanted that for Civil War they'd have called it "Avengers:Civil War" and thrown every MCU character they have in it to guarantee as big a BO as they can.

This is probably somewhat on the level right above Iron Man 3 imo and BO wise that'd still be a great mark to hit.

This was supposed to be more of a traditional Cap film originally before RDJ re-negotiated his role with Marvel and it became more.

 

[TalismanRing]

I think he means that is equivalent to Avengers box office-wise, from audiences POW. IF we treated it as a Cap movie, the box office bar is way lower, and a wild success would be something in the 350-400 DOM, 400 OS.

TWS did $455m O/S so no that would not be a wild success for a sequel to a very well regarded movie that had rather good legs O/S - particularity in the expanding Asian markets.

 

[Kanon]

I don't think it should be considered on par Box Office wise to an official Avengers film.

If Marvel wanted that for Civil War they'd have called it "Avengers:Civil War" and thrown every MCU character they have in it to guarantee as big a BO as they can.

This is probably somewhat on the level right above Iron Man 3 imo and BO wise that'd still be a great mark to hit.

This was supposed more of a traditional Cap film originally before RDJ re-negotiated his role with Marvel and it became more.

Regardless of what Marvel might want, what the storytellers intended, and what the movies might ultimately be, what the audiences perceive at this point is a movie with pretty much every MCU hero taking sides and fighting each other, plus Black Panther, plus Spider-Man. That I think puts it way over Avengers as an audience draw. It's like Avengers on steroids

 

[Kanon]

TWS did $455m O/S so no that would not be a wild success for a sequel to a very well regarded movie that had rather good legs O/S - particularity in the expanding Asian markets.

You are correct. Sorry I didn't check OS numbers (I pulled them out of nowhere to be honest, I just remember that the DOM numbers were something like 250M and made an estimate)

 

[JB33]

I don't know, I'm just dreading the possibility of it doing a little over $1B or something and some people come out and cry that it's a disappointment. It seems like we're in an age where at this point whenever a big blockbuster film gets released people expect it to be the new box office king. Then the next big movie has to beat that.

Personally, I'll be thrilled if and when this hits $1B, which, even I'll admit, is almost a certainty.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

This is the floor!

475 m DOM
725 m OS

1.2 billion

This is my prediction:

500 m
850 m

1.35 billion

But if reviews are accurate it will have excellent legs aND push 1.5 or 1.6 billion..

 

[Bruce Malone]

Regardless of what Marvel might want, what the storytellers intended, and what the movies might ultimately be, what the audiences perceive at this point is a movie with pretty much every MCU hero taking sides and fighting each other, plus Black Panther, plus Spider-Man. That I think puts it way over Avengers as an audience draw. It's like Avengers on steroids

So you're saying this movie should make at least 1.4-1.5 billion if not more since it's apparently "Avengers on steroids"?

To me this is just the same talk here pre-AoU about it doing almost 2 billion or whatever a lot were predicting.

As I said I'm expecting roughly Iron Man 3 numbers ~400 million domestic, ~800 OS for around 1.2 billion WW give or take. I think Marvel would be happy with that.

They are probably waiting until Infinity Wars to expect to get back to A1 numbers potentially.

 

[TalismanRing]

FWIW - Rth on Box of Theory said at Cinemacon after the screening distributors were pinning it at around $1.5b WW.

Boxoffice.com now has now updated it's projection - still 3 weeks out at a $182,000,000 opening and $490,000,000 total

In addition to this week’s additions to the long range forecast, we have significantly revised our forecast upwards for Disney’s Captain America: Civil War. With very strong initial critical reviews and the film continuing to impress in a big way on Twitter and online in general, BoxOffice Pro feels increasingly confident that Civil War will perform like an Avengers sequel and display stronger holding power than Avengers: Age of Ultron did last summer.

Pre-sales in South Korea (2nd biggest O/S territory outside of China) are currently pacing ahead of AOU and box office analysts have it doing $250m+ in China.

Youtube views at this point are higher for it's first and second trailer than for any AOU trailer. The second trailer has bucked the trend by being even more popular than the first, more views in the first week and bigger after one month than the first after 3 months.

I think Disney would be more than pleased with Iron Man 3 numbers WW but at this point, especially after seeing the film and believing it will be a be a huge crowd pleaser I think IM3 numbers are the floor.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Based on reviews, CW takes the best of TA and Winter Soldier and makes one of the best superhero movies.

The first weekend of the summer movie season.

Positive buzz.

Hungry audiences.

Crowd pleaser film like The Avengers.

We're looking at a perfect storm.

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

Based on reviews, CW takes the best of TA and Winter Soldier and makes one the best superhero movies.

The first weekend of the summer movie season.

Positive buzz.

Hungry audiences.

Crowd pleaser film like The Avengers.

We're looking at a perfect storm.

Absolutely. Tons of potential monies. The film's gonna have legs for days.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Anything over 1.5 billion.

 

[Filmfan93]

Why should there be a floor? As long as the film breaks even and afterwards makes a decent profit, everyone should be happy. If the breaking point is let's say $600 million, then $1 billion won't be a disappointment, right?

Many people called AoU disappointment, simply because it made less than the first Avengers. But how much profit did it make for Disney/Marvel? Some people go into these numbers without understanding the difference between revenue and profit.

That being said, I expect Civil War to hit $1,2-1,4 billion. But I will be also happy if it hits $1 billion (which considering the reception it gets is almost certain).

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

1 billion is too low.

It's like predicting 1.2 billion for Star Wars 7.

 

[Filmfan93]

1 billion is too low.

It's like predicting 1.2 billion for Star Wars 7.

$1 billion is the minimum, as I said. Also, Civil War is NOT Star Wars.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

$1 billion is the minimum, as I said. Also, Civil War is NOT Star Wars.

I'm saying some estimates are way too low.

I'm not saying that Civil War will make as much as Star Wars 7.

But 1 billion?

That means it will only make 350 million overseas minus China. That's almost as bad as MOS.

Lmao.

 

[Darkraid]

I know that in Asia, we have tons of MCU fans here. We gobble up merchandise and also there's a massive market called China and they are huge fans of MCU too.

Also, with the opening of the Shanghai Disneyland, which has a MCU area, the hype for any MCU movie will double or triple in China.

1 billion is a minimum for me.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

900 m is the minimum

Spoiler

Overseas.

 

[Raiden]

I know that in Asia, we have tons of MCU fans here. We gobble up merchandise and also there's a massive market called China and they are huge fans of MCU too.

Also, with the opening of the Shanghai Disneyland, which has a MCU area, the hype for any MCU movie will double or triple in China.

1 billion is a minimum for me.

I really wish Disneyland has a MCU area as well, but it seems like Disney is only interested a Star Wars while Marvel only has professional cosplayers doing photo ops with fans. What a wasted opportunity for Disney to take advantage of Marvel and their billion dollar franchises, but I digress.

I think China is going to be huge for Civil War. I think it will definitely gross to the north of 1.5 billion, and hopefully even more than TA when it's all said and done.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Well, judging by The Jungle Book's surprising $102M OW that'll happen by tomorrow, Disney could see Civil War surprising yet again.