Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[Tg11]

I see it getting to Avengers billions for this

 

[noakai]

He's the single biggest factor in the MCU doing so well. Supported by numerous other great people but he is the no.1. And now we will get to see how good an actor he is. He's been great as the snarky hero all this time and now we can see the serious side.

It's crazy. No way I could have expected anything like this in the run up to Iron Man (the first trailer gave some indications we were on to something though). Haha yeah, his bank balance won't even blink.

I've read in a lot of places too that he does a lot of like "behind the scenes" stuff when it comes to the MCU - like closed door parties and schmoozing, etc. We know he has some pull when it comes to casting and the directions some things take. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if some day he ends up getting some kind of producer credit somewhere, once he's done actually acting in them. He just seems incredibly involved in the overall makeup.

 

[Tilapia]

In other news (since I started this), RDJ saves the world from global hunger.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

We are about 2 weeks away from the domestic release, is there any tracking for this yet?

 

[TalismanRing]

First official tracking just came in (for comparison HR had BvS was at $140m at the same point of time from release)

'Captain America: Civil War' Tracking for Massive $175M-Plus Opening

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/captain-america-civil-war-tracking-884792

 

[ImSGirl95]

I kind of expected a larger number.
But I'm fine with that

 

[Jordanstine]

Is it possible to change the poll selections?

$700 million should be the floor. But no way does a sequel open less to $715 which Winter Soldier did.

- $700M to $799M
- $800M to $899M
- $900M to $999M
- $1.0B to $1.09B
- $1.1B to $1.19B
- $1.2B to $1.29B
- $1.3B to $1.39B
- $1.4B to $1.49B
- $1.5B and up

 

[TalismanRing]

Tracking is 3 weeks out. BvS went up $26m with terrible reviews. In fact some trackers had it at $120m opening 3 weeks out.

I think $175m is the floor. The article says "plus". Statistically anything over $150m is very hard to track because so few films have opened over that. The % difference between $175 and $200m is the same as between $17.5m and $20m.

Jungle Book just opened 25% higher than what it was tracking the day before it opened and 60% more than what it was tracking a 3 weeks before.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Tracking is 3 weeks out. BvS went up $26m with terrible reviews. In fact some trackers had it at $120m opening 3 weeks out.

I think $175m is the floor. The article says "plus". Statistically anything over $150m is very hard to track because so few films have opened over that. The % difference between $175 and $200m is the same as between $17.5m and $20m.

Jungle Book just opened 25% higher than what it was tracking the day before it opened and 60% more than what it was tracking a 3 weeks before.

I see. Thanks!
I really do hope for a some 200-220 million opening. t:

 

[Iceman]

Tracking is 3 weeks out. BvS went up $26m with terrible reviews. In fact some trackers had it at $120m opening 3 weeks out.

I think $175m is the floor. The article says "plus". Statistically anything over $150m is very hard to track because so few films have opened over that. The % difference between $175 and $200m is the same as between $17.5m and $20m.

Jungle Book just opened 25% higher than what it was tracking the day before it opened and 60% more than what it was tracking a 3 weeks before.

Exactly. The raw difference when we get to numbers of this size is not as much as it sounds in relative terms. TFA opened with nearly $250m but with the same reception as BvS might have opened to $140m. If the reaction to CW continues to be of this level it has the capability of doing much more than initial projections like the first Avengers did.

 

[Jordanstine]

Tracking is 3 weeks out. BvS went up $26m with terrible reviews. In fact some trackers had it at $120m opening 3 weeks out.

I think $175m is the floor. The article says "plus". Statistically anything over $150m is very hard to track because so few films have opened over that. The % difference between $175 and $200m is the same as between $17.5m and $20m.

Jungle Book just opened 25% higher than what it was tracking the day before it opened and 60% more than what it was tracking a 3 weeks before.

Hey, you're from BoxOfficeTheory!

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

god I hope this hits over 200 million opening weekend. I'm still salty Jurassic World beat TA OW last year. IMO that film didn't deserve it.

 

[Jeight]

This will go easily 190-200. THR is extremely conservative. We are weeks away, it will go up.

 

[TalismanRing]

http://variety.com/2016/film/box-of...l-war-box-office-opening-tracking-1201755645/

The superhero adventure is on track to be one of the biggest openings of any Marvel Comics film in history, with pre-release tracking suggesting it will open between $175 million and $180 million. Rival studio executives and analysts believe that the film, which has Captain America in the title, but also includes Avengers staples such as Iron Man and Black Widow among its cadre of costumed protagonists, could debut to nearly $200 million.


“It’s tough to predict any movie getting above $200 million, but this one has a shot,” said Eric Handler, an analyst with MKM Partners. “They have two weeks of good buzz to build on and the marketing machine behind this is going to be huge.”



The issue with firming up a prediction for a film like “Captain America: Civil War” is that awareness of the picture is nearly universal and interest is high. That makes coming up with an accurate prediction more art than science. It should also be noted that no tracking service has the film hitting $200 million.


If it does reach that number, “Captain America: Civil War” will be only the fourth film in history, behind “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” “Jurassic World” and the first “Avengers” movie, to breach the $200 million barrier in the opening weekend. The previous two Captain America films opened to $65.1 million and $95 million, respectively. However, the ensemble cast and the promise of seeing Captain America face off against Iron Man is bolstering interest. The picture is taking on the air of a third Avengers movie instead of another Captain America one-off. It also features the first on-screen appearances of the new Spider-Man (English actor Tom Holland slipping into the spandex) and Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther.

 

[Serpico Jones]

It'll make over $200m easy.

 

[Mysteryman]

god I hope this hits over 200 million opening weekend. I'm still salty Jurassic World beat TA OW last year. IMO that film didn't deserve it.

It is not about what a movie deserves or not, it is about what people want to see.
Dont blame the film because people decided that they wanted to see it.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

It is not about what a movie deserves or not, it is about what people want to see.
Dont blame the film because people decided that they wanted to see it.

I get that but for me I thought that film was average. Just my opinion.

 

[Jordanstine]

I get that but for me I thought that film was average. Just my opinion.

I actually thought JW was below average. Pratt was great but Bryce Dallas was so annoying.

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

Yeah Jurassic World put me to sleep. Really don't enjoy it but it is what it is.

 

[hafizbat]

If this could top AOU and even TA, that would be downright amazing

 

[BatsDC]

No way this happens... But it could easily get 210+

Crazy to think this but if CIVIL WAR is already tracking at $175 3 weeks out, the $250 mill record doesn't seem impossible by any means

Twitter

 

[Silver Surfer]

If it beats TA OW which it looks like it might, and stays in the 90% RT rating, then there is no doubt that Whedon dropped the ball with Ultron. This would have proven the whole TA was lightning in a bottle was just BS.

 

[hafizbat]

If it beats TA OW which it looks like it might, and stays in the 90% RT rating, then there is no doubt that Whedon dropped the ball with Ultron. This would have proven the whole TA was lightning in a bottle was just BS.

I don't know about that...it's not like AOU was bad or anything. The GA still loved it...it's just most people said its "not as good as the first one". Not to mention the big MMA fight that weekend.

I think it's more likely that CW is lighting in a bottle again.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

I want this to top TFA's OW just to see the craziness that ensues. t:

 

[Tilapia]

My Disney stock shares went flying today.... keep it coming Disney.