Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[JC00]

What if BvS had never ran away from the May 6th date?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTvBQE6cvVg

Watching this now is truly laughable. I'm surprised that idiot hasn't deleted it.

I really hate how he threw in that Spiderman thing at the end there. Now he gets to go "Well it had Spiderman and I said it would be a different story if he was in it".

Civil War would beat BvS even without Spiderman.

 

[JOE]

I still think one day Sony is going to sell Spider-Man, and Marvel/Disney is going to pay out the nose for him.

 

[TalismanRing]

I still think one day Sony is going to sell Spider-Man, and Marvel/Disney is going to pay out the nose for him.

Doubtful. If Disney thought Sony were selling they'd have let them swing until their license expired or they continued to devalue it so much it came cheap. Building up the brand so it's more expensive to buy is foolish.

 

[JOE]

Doubtful. If Disney thought Sony were selling they'd have let them swing until their license expired or they continued to devalue it so much it came cheap. Building up the brand so it's more expensive to buy is foolish.

Don't think Marvel didn't want to buy Spider-Man, Sony didn't want to sell him. They're waiting for Spidey to be popular again, then sell when he's the face of the MCU. It's already starting, look at all the positive buzz he's created for Civil War. Sony is plotting, they've sabotaged 3 movies in a row knowing this would happen. They've had it in them all along.

 

[third3ye]

Yeah I don't see Sony giving up the Spidey rights anytime soon, possibly not in our lifetimes. Sony doesn't have a lot of tentpole franchises to lean on, selling Spidey would be like cutting off one of their limbs. The only realistic scenario I can see is if Sony decides to exit the studio business, then they might sell the rights back, but only if they can't find a buyer to take the whole studio at the right price.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Disney doesn't need the full rights to Spidey.

Sony funds the solo movies while Spidey appears in countless MCU movies and Disney makes a killing on merchandising.

It's a win-win for Disney.

 

[third3ye]

Disney doesn't need the full rights to Spidey.

Sony funds the solo movies while Spidey appears in countless MCU movies and Disney makes a killing on merchandising.

It's a win-win for Disney.

Totally agree, this arrangement works as long as Disney/Marvel and Sony play nice with each other. Disney doesn't need to invest production money for solo Spidey films but gets to reap all the merch revenue, Marvel Studios has creative control over the Spidey films, and Sony gets to tap into the highly bankable MCU. Again the emphasis here is 'play nice with each other', because when the relationship sours, that's when Sony will start exercising their 'final decision' clause in an effort to protect their investment. Short term outlook, if Sony were to move ahead with their non-MCU spinoff films like Venom and Sinister Six, that could threaten this relationship for obvious reasons, so we'll see how long this partnership lasts.

 

[Iceman]

Disney doesn't need the full rights to Spidey.

Sony funds the solo movies while Spidey appears in countless MCU movies and Disney makes a killing on merchandising.

It's a win-win for Disney.

And for Sony it looks like the character has been not just saved but back to better than his best to date if reviews and fan accounts so far are accurate.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I still think one day Sony is going to sell Spider-Man, and Marvel/Disney is going to pay out the nose for him.

I think it is more likely that Sony would sell off their entire film division (which is rumored from time to time) than just sell the SM rights, which are probably their biggest asset.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

And for Sony it looks like the character has been not just saved but back to better than his best to date if reviews and fan accounts so far are accurate.

I'm starting to wonder if this arrangement would be best for Fantastic Four going into Infinity War pt. 1 and 2.

It's certainly better than FF being shelved for 8 years or another crappy reboot.

 

[TalismanRing]

I think it is more likely that Sony would sell off their entire film division (which is rumored from time to time) than just sell the SM rights, which are probably their biggest asset.

The thing is they made only around $70m off the last SM. Disney makes about 2-4 times that on SM merchandise every year (at $1b+ sales, say they make 7-10% back in licensing and sales). That's why there's the deal with Marvel.

 

[TalismanRing]

I'm starting to wonder if this arrangement would be best for Fantastic Four going into Infinity War pt. 1 and 2.

It's certainly better than FF being shelved for 8 years or another crappy reboot.

It would be great for Fox and F&F but I don't see the incentive for Disney. Fox really can't afford to make another FF movie that loses $100m+ and Dinsey has other properties and only so many slots open in their film schedule so there's no need to hurry.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

It would be great for Fox and F&F but I don't see the incentive for Disney. Fox really can't afford to make another FF movie that loses $100m+ and Dinsey has other properties and only so many slots open in their film schedule so there's no need to hurry.

With the big three (RDJ, Evans, Hemsworth) ending their MCU run after phase 3, there will be alot of room for more major MCU franchises in phase 4.

 

[TalismanRing]

With the big three (RDJ, Evans, Hemsworth) ending their MCU run after phase 3, there will be alot of room for more major MCU franchises in phase 4.

It's not confirmed that any of them are ending their runs, but there will also be BP, Captain Marvel, Dr Strange, Ant-Man and GOTG. Then there are properties like The Inhumans, The Runaways etc.

Right now FF is a poisoned well of a property thanks to Fox. It needs maybe a decade to rest before it can be revived. Maybe the 5th Phase and by then rights will have reverted.

 

[JOE]

I wouldn't say Spider-Man is their biggest asset, wouldn't Bond take that spot?

 

[Endeavor]

I wouldn't say Spider-Man is their biggest asset, wouldn't Bond take that spot?

I read somewhere they no longer have a lock on Bond.

 

[JB33]

I read somewhere they no longer have a lock on Bond.

Yeah, I've been wondering lately when we were going to get news on that. I remember reading shortly after the release of Spectre that Eon Productions was looking at other options for distribution now that the contract with Sony is up.

 

[Zarex]

I think it is more likely that Sony would sell off their entire film division (which is rumored from time to time) than just sell the SM rights, which are probably their biggest asset.

I could see Disney and Sony entering into a Joint Venture relationship regarding Sony Entertainment similar to the Heart-Disney ownership structure of A&E Lifetime Networks.

 

[TalismanRing]

EON would be beyond lucky to find any deal as advantageous to them as the Sony deal. Sony made less on the last Bond than they did on the last SM.

EON said last year before Spectre opened that they would be making a choice soon but I think the drop in box office and mediocre reviews made their deal making a bit more difficult.

 

[JB33]

EON would be beyond lucky to find any deal as advantageous to them as the Sony deal. Sony made less on the last Bond than they did on the last SM.

EON said last year before Spectre opened that they would be making a choice soon but I think the drop in box office and mediocre reviews made their deal making a bit more difficult.

Do you think they'll end up just sticking with Sony?

As far as Sony is concerned, they NEED to get that deal done.

 

[Gerontophobe]

EON would be beyond lucky to find any deal as advantageous to them as the Sony deal. Sony made less on the last Bond than they did on the last SM.

EON said last year before Spectre opened that they would be making a choice soon but I think the drop in box office and mediocre reviews made their deal making a bit more difficult.

So MGM and Sony split the costs 50/50 but the profits 75/25 in favor of MGM (and no distribution fee for Sony)? That's crazy; there's no way any studio will make a deal like that now; certainly not Sony with Rothman in charge.

Do you think they'll end up just sticking with Sony?

As far as Sony is concerned, they NEED to get that deal done.

I personally think WB is more likely to end up with it since they like throwing money at franchises. Rothman is so profit-focused and the transition to a new Bond will be tough. The films are now very expensive blockbusters which you can't really roll back (although they certainly don't need to cost the $245M that Spectre did), and there's no guarantee a new Bond will be able to maintain the grosses necessary to support huge budgets.

 

[ernesth100]

This movie is gonna slay the Box Office on maybe Avengers 1 levels. Hell I think its the first Marvel film with a chance to surpass Avengers.

 

[TalismanRing]

So MGM and Sony split the costs 50/50 but the profits 75/25 in favor of MGM (and no distribution fee for Sony)? That's crazy; there's no way any studio will make a deal like that now; certainly not Sony with Rothman in charge.

I personally think WB is more likely to end up with it since they like throwing money at franchises. Rothman is so profit-focused and the transition to a new Bond will be tough. The films are now very expensive blockbusters which you can't really roll back (although they certainly don't need to cost the $245M that Spectre did), and there's no guarantee a new Bond will be able to maintain the grosses necessary to support huge budgets.

Yep and don't forget EON takes a slice off the top (in addition to the huge producing fee which is in the budget) before the studios split their takings/

There an internal memo floating around when they were fighting over how the budget had ballooned to $350m that said that Sony would take home $35m in profit if the movie made $1.1b. It made $880m


Deadline's Breakdown

http://deadline.com/2016/03/spectre-profit-box-office-2015-james-bond-1201723528/

Sony and MGM split the production-cost funding 50/50 and then MGM takes 75% of the profit and Sony 25%, with the latter not getting a distribution fee on top of that, which is an amazing deal for MGM.

The franchise producers at Danjaq, and the estate of author Ian Fleming, each has first-dollar gross positions. Danjaq ends up making about $50M and Fleming about $10M. Craig’s deal is not very rich – $7M upfront plus about $4M on the back end.

At the end of the day, the net profit for MGM and Sony is $98M, with a Cash on Cash Return of 1.17.

In the re-up talks, Sony has the advantage of incumbency, but also at the helm is Tom Rothman, an exec comfortable with hardball negotiations and an eye toward profits. By these numbers, anyone taking on the 007 property will be looking at working very hard for comparably small profits, when all the splits and payouts are factored in. It’s great to be able to say you have a big global franchise, but it’s all about the bottom line.

So Sony got 25% of $98m with no distribution fee. That's a poor return for 3 years work and that kind of monetary investment.

 

[KangConquers]

Purely from box office, Sony is the winner without a doubt, and deservedly so for the simple fact they're paying for the production. However when counting all revenue streams, Disney may edge out Sony from merchandising revenue since licensing is a much higher margin business than theatrical sales, and Disney can tap for MCU Spidey product regardless of studio; imagine how much Spidey product they can sell for A:IW. In the end both parties are coming out way ahead, they're going to be too busy sliding down their mountains of gold to care whose pile is marginally bigger.

According to Sony's hacked e-mails, Marvel made a 300 M profit on The Amazing Spider-Man 2's merchandise, and that was off an ill received, underperforming film.

If Spider-Man Homecoming does as well as it has the potential to do, I imagine Disney will be just happy with where they stand monetarily on the Spider-Man front. Zero risk, 100% reward.

 

[Raiden]

It's not confirmed that any of them are ending their runs, but there will also be BP, Captain Marvel, Dr Strange, Ant-Man and GOTG. Then there are properties like The Inhumans, The Runaways etc.

Right now FF is a poisoned well of a property thanks to Fox. It needs maybe a decade to rest before it can be revived. Maybe the 5th Phase and by then rights will have reverted.

FF doesn't need a decade if Marvel Studios can take over and incorporate them to MCU.