Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[MessiahDecoy123]

Right now the top 5 worldwide is:

1) Cameron (Avatar)
2) Cameron (Titanic)
3) Disney (The Force Awakens)
4) Universal (Jurassic World)
5) Disney (The Avengers)

Time for Marvel to take their rightful place at Star Wars side.

 

[BETArayBill]

What if BvS had never ran away from the May 6th date?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTvBQE6cvVg

Watching this now is truly laughable. I'm surprised that idiot hasn't deleted it.

Wow haha they should do an apology video for that

 

[Raiden]

Right now the top 5 worldwide is:

1) Cameron (Avatar)
2) Cameron (Titanic)
3) Disney (The Force Awakens)
4) Universal (Jurassic World)
5) Disney (The Avengers)

Time for Marvel to take their rightful place at Star Wars side.

I think CW has a shot in taking over #4 spot from JW.

 

[Bruce Malone]

TFAs opening weekend was actually muted by the holiday and still it opened about three times bigger than any other movie did in December. If it had a summer opening it probably would have hit $300m+ o/w.

There was nothing muted about TFA's OW. I believe it was actually at the "theater max" meaning pretty much new theaters and screens would have had to have been constructed to gross anything more than it did. It was sold out everywhere and in many locations for months ahead.

I don't believe a 300 million OW is even feasible right now just for that fact.

Like I mentioned 200 million plus openings are not just the fans wanting to see it but every other random joe on the street deciding to check out the film regardless if they are even a fan of the franchise. It's still the pinnacle of openings and not to be expected aside from something like TFA.

The other films to have 200 million openings were total surprises they'd reach that high. Like a bolt of lighting.

 

[TalismanRing]

There are approx 45,000 movie screens nationwide. TFA opened on approx 14.5k of them with the avg on Sat being $4.7k per screen. With the avg US ticket price then of about $8.5. That averages 552 tickets per screen per day. If the film showed just 5 times a day (and it showed more than that) that averages 110 tickets a show. Sell outs are more prone in certain areas but TFA averaged around 40-50% seating capacity just for the screens it was in.

To look at in another way. TFA made $57m in Thur previews, $62m Friday, $68m on Sat and $60m on Sun. If it packed them in all weekend the way it did during previews then it's opening would have been considerably higher.

Fri/Sat/Sun Avengers made approx $1m less with tickets priced 6% lower and fewer premium screens. Avengers sold more tickets on the weekend minus previews than TFA and yet who would claim that the fervor for Avengers reached TFA levels?

 

[Superhero 101]

You know I just realized that civil war is opening on Mother's Day weekend. I wonder if that will Impact the opening weekend numbers

 

[SomeOldGuy]

What if BvS had never ran away from the May 6th date?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTvBQE6cvVg

Watching this now is truly laughable. I'm surprised that idiot hasn't deleted it.

Lol. Funniest thing was when I clicked on it I got the Audi Cap 3 ad.

 

[spiderman2]

You know I just realized that civil war is opening on Mother's Day weekend. I wonder if that will Impact the opening weekend numbers

Oh wow I didn't even think about that. I wonder if maybe that will keep it form doing 200m OW but then maybe second week will have a smaller drop because of that. Like maybe some people who would normally see it OW will want in till the next weekend because of mothers day.

 

[Solaire]

You know I just realized that civil war is opening on Mother's Day weekend. I wonder if that will Impact the opening weekend numbers

Everyone will be buying tickets for their mothers and wives so they can see Tony Stark, Steve Rodgers, Bucky Barnes and T'Challa on the big screen.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Oh wow I didn't even think about that. I wonder if maybe that will keep it form doing 200m OW but then maybe second week will have a smaller drop because of that. Like maybe some people who would normally see it OW will want in till the next weekend because of mothers day.

I don't think Mother's day will have much impact on the box office. It certainly doesn't hurt it although it probably doesn't help it that much either; it depends a lot on if the older female audience feels like seeing CW.

Usually Mother's Day lands on the second weekend of an MCU summer opener (as it did for IM, The Avengers, IM3, and AoU; also TASM2 for what it's worth) and those Sundays saw drops comparable to the third weekend so the impact seems negligible.

 

[hafizbat]

Just a general question, do holidays usually cause an increase or a decrease in OWs?

 

[Doctor Octopus]

Increase I think because people have more time off for watching movies.

 

[KangConquers]

I hope CA: CW does really well but no way does it do $550M DOM. That is just way to much optimism right there. And also having Finding Dory opening to only $108M is laughable. That movie is going to be huge.

Kids movies tend to have smaller openings and longer legs.

 

[flickchick85]

Increase I think because people have more time off for watching movies.

Depends on the holiday. People don't get extra time off for Mothers Day, so that won't be a boost.

 

[Vincanws]

Can't believe I only went for the 1.1 billion range. This things a monster in the making.

 

[titansupes]

Right now the top 5 worldwide is:

1) Cameron (Avatar)
2) Cameron (Titanic)
3) Disney (The Force Awakens)
4) Universal (Jurassic World)
5) Disney (The Avengers)

Time for Marvel to take their rightful place at Star Wars side.

Why doesn't FOX get the shout out for having the Top 2? Cameron ain't the studio.

 

[Hero_of_Time98]

Can't believe I only went for the 1.1 billion range. This things a monster in the making.

I really think that this movie will top Marvel's the Avengers. As much as I love the first Avengers movie for being awesome and groundbreaking, I think audiences are just very excited to see Spider-Man interact with other heroes for the first time ever on screen. That's why I have been really happy of the Marvel-Sony deal. That alone will make the movie $1 billion and with the great word of mouth and the excellent reputation that the Russos received from The Winter Solider, that will add a least another half a billion. I'm going with $1.5 billion worldwide when it's all said in done. This will the #1 super hero movie of all time and will rightfully take it's place next to The Force Awakens on the list. Excelsior!!!

 

[Gerontophobe]

I really think that this movie will top Marvel's the Avengers. As much as I love the first Avengers movie for being awesome and groundbreaking, I think audiences are just very excited to see Spider-Man interact with other heroes for the first time ever on screen. That's why I have been really happy of the Marvel-Sony deal. That alone will make the movie $1 billion...

So who is getting the better part of the Spider-Man deal? Just from a box office perspective, I think it is probably Sony. IM being in Homecoming will give it a bigger boost than SM will give CW. Without the MCU characters, I think Sony would have had a very hard time selling any of there SM flicks, especially another reboot. However, Marvel owns the merchandising rights so they'll make a ton of money if Spider-Man is again a box office monster.

In the end, I'm just hoping it's the fans that won (which based off of CW reviews is looking good).

 

[Mysteryman]

I think both companies benefit from the deal, as fans, we certainly do.

 

[Hero_of_Time98]

So who is getting the better part of the Spider-Man deal? Just from a box office perspective, I think it is probably Sony. IM being in Homecoming will give it a bigger boost than SM will give CW. Without the MCU characters, I think Sony would have had a very hard time selling any of there SM flicks, especially another reboot. However, Marvel owns the merchandising rights so they'll make a ton of money if Spider-Man is again a box office monster.

In the end, I'm just hoping it's the fans that won (which based off of CW reviews is looking good).

In the end, I agree, the fans win. The fans have been wanting Spider-Man to be a part of the MCU for awhile now. Sony was just set in stone that the Amazing Spider-Man film series would work. Unfortunately, it's too hard to build an entire universe around one single character. Spider-Man belongs in the MCU. As for which studio benefits, they both do. Marvel Studios gets to have it's #1 character in it's movies and Sony gets to have solo movies in the MCU, which is very successful and have grossed over $9 billion worldwide. Sony has to be thrilled to have RDJ in Spider-Man: Homecoming because that alone should get the film probably over $1 billion worldwide. I really hope the solo film is the most successful Spider-Man movie, so that Marvel-Sony deal can go on as long as possible. It's exciting to see Spider-Man share the screen with other heroes.

 

[third3ye]

So who is getting the better part of the Spider-Man deal? Just from a box office perspective, I think it is probably Sony. IM being in Homecoming will give it a bigger boost than SM will give CW. Without the MCU characters, I think Sony would have had a very hard time selling any of there SM flicks, especially another reboot. However, Marvel owns the merchandising rights so they'll make a ton of money if Spider-Man is again a box office monster.

In the end, I'm just hoping it's the fans that won (which based off of CW reviews is looking good).

Purely from box office, Sony is the winner without a doubt, and deservedly so for the simple fact they're paying for the production. However when counting all revenue streams, Disney may edge out Sony from merchandising revenue since licensing is a much higher margin business than theatrical sales, and Disney can tap for MCU Spidey product regardless of studio; imagine how much Spidey product they can sell for A:IW. In the end both parties are coming out way ahead, they're going to be too busy sliding down their mountains of gold to care whose pile is marginally bigger.

 

[Hero_of_Time98]

Purely from box office, Sony is the winner without a doubt, and deservedly so for the simple fact they're paying for the production. However when counting all revenue streams, Disney may edge out Sony from merchandising revenue since licensing is a much higher margin business than theatrical sales, and Disney can tap for MCU Spidey product regardless of studio; imagine how much Spidey product they can sell for A:IW. In the end both parties are coming out way ahead, they're going to be too busy sliding down their mountains of gold to care whose pile is marginally bigger.

I hope you are right and I hope Sony is happy. I want this deal to last as long as possible. I always have a thought in the back of my head with Sony bailing on Marvel the first chance once they feel like the partnership has been beneficial for them. I think Homecoming will be the real test. If that movie hits over a $1 Billion, the Marvel-Sony partnership could last for decades to come with Spider-Man.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Why doesn't FOX get the shout out for having the Top 2? Cameron ain't the studio.

Yeah, let's pretend Cameron doesn't practically own Fox at this point.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I hope you are right and I hope Sony is happy. I want this deal to last as long as possible. I always have a thought in the back of my head with Sony bailing on Marvel the first chance once they feel like the partnership has been beneficial for them. I think Homecoming will be the real test. If that movie hits over a $1 Billion, the Marvel-Sony partnership could last for decades to come with Spider-Man.

From what we're hearing about Spider-man from CW, 900+ m from Homecoming is a safe bet.

Either way, Sony is definitely going to make more from Homecoming than they would from ASM3 or waiting 7 years to reboot.

 

[Doctor Octopus]

From what we're hearing about Spider-man from CW, 900+ m from Homecoming is a safe bet.

Either way, Sony is definitely going to make more from Homecoming than they would from ASM3 or waiting 7 years to reboot.

That why they choose best option of making deal with Marvel. They finally see sense lol.