David Poland says "Disney might kill Thor."

[TheVileOne]

Marvel could afford an ambitious film slate before they had the financial might of Disney behind them. Why do we suddenly think they won't be able to afford it now that they do?

OK well let's look at that. of the non-Sony/Fox/Lionsgate movies, they did Hulk and Iron Man in 2008. So that was two movies last year.

This year there was only Wolverine from Fox.

Next year is only Iron Man 2 as Thor got delayed again. So tentatively, Thor and Cap are being positioned for 2011 with Avengers in 2012. That could all still change.

Keyser Soze, the question is, why they haven't been able to line up an ambitious film slate again without Disney? And why they want or need the backing of Disney in the first place?

Keyser Soze, its also the worry, that if Marvel in fact does NOT have the finances to fully fund Thor, Cap, and Avengers themselves in the coming years . . . will Disney really be willing to foot the bill?

 

[FaT_tONle]

There really should be no need to move anything. There was already some kind of financial plan in place for these films before Disney came along. Now that Disney have bought Marvel, it's not like all that money has magically evaporated and Disney will have to foot the bill for everything in every film.

I doubt Disney will be thinking about culling some of the movies from the summer slate. If anything, they'll be thinking how good it is that they have some kind of interest (and chance of profit) in the majority of major blockbusters in summer 2011, in one way or another.

And remember, though Disney is the parent company, these are still all their own divisions doing their own thing. Thor is not "in POTC's way" anymore than Up was in the way of Inglourious Basterds this summer.

You are talking about a three month gap for two completely different genres. This isn't a Touchstone or Mirimax small budget feature we are talking about either. As of now you got:

SM4 May 6 2011
Thor May 20th 2011
Cars 2 June 24th 2011
Cap July 22nd 2011

Now there is time to release POTC4 somewhere between all of that, but then it's going to conflict with the other big tentpoles that summer, most notably GL, Potter, KF Panda 2, etc. I don't see how that's a good business move unless you move Cap out of 2011.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

The scheduling conflict does sound plausible. Now that Disney is in charge, they'll pay Marvel's Merrill Lynch loan in full so Marvel doesn't have to worry about releasing a certain movie in a certain summer. POTC is a proven franchise and would take precedent over Cap, Thor, or the Avengers.

The only thing forcing them to release stuff in the summer is the Paramount contract.

 

[TheCorpulent1]

I'll worry about Thor getting canned if there's an actual announcement about it. Some random film critic who's not directly connected to the movie doesn't hold much sway with me.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Whatever the case may be, Thor fan's better pray Depp's schedule over the next couple of years is so tight that they won't be able to shoot Pirates in time for a 2011 release. Better yet, he signs onto a Dr. Strange movie first.

 

[smooth3006]

if they do drop this flick, i can't wait to see the reaction on here...same with captain and the avengers!

 

[TheVileOne]

I think what we just want to know is, does Marvel have the finances now to go forward with Thor and Cap without funding (*interference*) from Disney.

Now here's the other thing. If Disney does oblige and fund the rest of these projects, will they REALLY keep their hands off approach.

I mean Marvel has a good track record guys but its NOT a Pixar track record. Just about everything Pixar does makes over $200 million domestic as of late. The Incredible Hulk sort of puts a blemish on the Marvel track record and makes me hard pressed to believe that Disney will uphold their "hands off" mantra.

 

[smooth3006]

i think what we just want to know is, does marvel have the finances now to go forward with thor and cap without funding (*interference*) from disney.

Now here's the other thing. If disney does oblige and fund the rest of these projects, will they really keep their hands off approach.

I mean marvel has a good track record guys but its not a pixar track record. Just about everything pixar does makes over $200 million domestic as of late. The incredible hulk sort of puts a blemish on the marvel track record and makes me hard pressed to believe that disney will uphold their "hands off" mantra.

+1000

 

[Keyser Soze]

You are talking about a three month gap for two completely different genres. This isn't a Touchstone or Mirimax small budget feature we are talking about either. As of now you got:

SM4 May 6 2011
Thor May 20th 2011
Cars 2 June 24th 2011
Cap July 22nd 2011

Now there is time to release POTC4 somewhere between all of that, but then it's going to conflict with the other big tentpoles that summer, most notably GL, Potter, KF Panda 2, etc. I don't see how that's a good business move unless you move Cap out of 2011.

This is really all worst case scenario conjecture. "Summer 2011 is gonna be really busy" is hardly news, and people have been devising up elaborate scenarios for how Thor/Green Lantern/Captain America/all of the above are in fact never going to get made for months now. Cars 2 is still a Pixar film. Spider-Man 4 is still a Sony Pictures film. and Thor and Captain America are still Marvel Studios films. It's just now they're all, to varying degrees, under the Disney umbrella. But I think Disney will be too blinded by the dollar signs in their eyes at all the increased revenue headed their way to cook up Machiavellian schemes to sabotage films they now hold influence over in order to serve up a cushier spot for Pirates 4.

I think we should be careful with discussion like this, because if you say "what if" and "maybe" in a scary voice enough times people start taking it as fact and panicking. Just look at the healthcare debate.

If anything's going to kill Thor, it's going to be everyone coming to the groundless assumption that it's already dead, like some kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[FaT_tONle]

if they do drop this flick, i can't wait to see the reaction on here...same with captain and the avengers!

I'll walk from Marvel movies other than Spiderman... for now... after ranting a little of course...

I think what we just want to know is, does Marvel have the finances now to go forward with Thor and Cap without funding (*interference*) from Disney.

Now here's the other thing. If Disney does oblige and fund the rest of these projects, will they REALLY keep their hands off approach.

I mean Marvel has a good track record guys but its NOT a Pixar track record. Just about everything Pixar does makes over $200 million domestic as of late. The Incredible Hulk sort of puts a blemish on the Marvel track record and makes me hard pressed to believe that Disney will uphold their "hands off" mantra.

I think it is obvious that Marvel could not fund those two films as it stands right now without putting themselves in more debt.

This is really all worst case scenario conjecture. "Summer 2011 is gonna be really busy" is hardly news, and people have been devising up elaborate scenarios for how Thor/Green Lantern/Captain America/all of the above are in fact never going to get made for months now. Cars 2 is still a Pixar film. Spider-Man 4 is still a Sony Pictures film. and Thor and Captain America are still Marvel Studios films. It's just now they're all, to varying degrees, under the Disney umbrella. But I think Disney will be too blinded by the dollar signs in their eyes at all the increased revenue headed their way to cook up Machiavellian schemes to sabotage films they now hold influence over in order to serve up a cushier spot for Pirates 4.

I think we should be careful with discussion like this, because if you say "what if" and "maybe" in a scary voice enough times people start taking it as fact and panicking. Just look at the healthcare debate.

If anything's going to kill Thor, it's going to be everyone coming to the groundless assumption that it's already dead, like some kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.

I just think it's incredibly short sighted not giving yourself 3-4 week gaps between 150 million dollar tentpole films, regardless of whether they operate as independent subsidiaries. It's all under the same house. Cap can use the extra year without a doubt. Obviously delaying Avengers another year(s) probably means everything from TIH will be lost (particularly Norton), but we expected that anyways. I am not against delaying the slate if there is no way Marvel can make it work.

 

[Webhead2006]

Yup to their is news from marvel, disney, paramount, and thor/cap directors about the whole thing we are in. I dont see why anything is going to change. Plus yea like everyone else said before the whole disney merger 2011 was going to be a busy year for comic/fantasy pics as it is. I dont see any probably for the sony/paramount marvel movies, any wb movies, or the disney films we know about all cant be out in the year. Their is plently of space through may-aug to give each 2-3 weeks between each other and still make a good money for all studios if each film is a hit.

 

[Evil Twin]

I think it is obvious that Marvel could not fund those two films as it stands right now without putting themselves in more debt.

Well, I don't think the debt was the issue, as much as how much debt Marvel could get into at once.

I don't know what the budget is for IM2, but something around $200 million sounds probable to me. Toss in another $150 million apiece for Thor and Captain America, if they want to get shooting early to maintain a realistic 2011 schedule, and Marvel could have outstanding loans of $500 million with no money coming in until May 2010. I'm sure the interest would not be insignificant on that amount. The interest might have been so significant that there was little chance Marvel would make any money except on the most massive of hits.

And the consequences of one of their films flopping would be astronomical.

I'd say that the Disney buyout represents a massive safety net. In the long run they probably will sacrifice some independence. And the schedule probably won't be as aggressive. But, there's also about 0% probability of the whole thing crashing and burning as well.

 

[TheVileOne]

This is really all worst case scenario conjecture. "Summer 2011 is gonna be really busy" is hardly news, and people have been devising up elaborate scenarios for how Thor/Green Lantern/Captain America/all of the above are in fact never going to get made for months now. Cars 2 is still a Pixar film. Spider-Man 4 is still a Sony Pictures film. and Thor and Captain America are still Marvel Studios films. It's just now they're all, to varying degrees, under the Disney umbrella. But I think Disney will be too blinded by the dollar signs in their eyes at all the increased revenue headed their way to cook up Machiavellian schemes to sabotage films they now hold influence over in order to serve up a cushier spot for Pirates 4.

I think we should be careful with discussion like this, because if you say "what if" and "maybe" in a scary voice enough times people start taking it as fact and panicking. Just look at the healthcare debate.

If anything's going to kill Thor, it's going to be everyone coming to the groundless assumption that it's already dead, like some kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.

OK Keyser, but is the money there for Thor right now?

 

[Keyser Soze]

OK Keyser, but is the money there for Thor right now?

I of course am not in a position to say that for sure, but from what little I know about the process of film production, I'd imagine that extensive pre-production, writing the script, bringing a name director onboard, and hiring several actors in key roles tend to come after "Do we have any money to make this film?"

 

[Chewy]

Even if the money isn't there, Vile, why are you buying into Poland's BS that Disney isn't planning on providing it? What is it about Thor that leads you to believe they want to pull the plug? What makes it any different than Cap, or Iron Man (pre the first movie), or any of these other properties that are being adapted?

I think all of this comes back to people not necessarily believing that the property can be adapted into a successful film, a belief that obviously Marvel disagrees with. And people had the same belief regarding IM just a few years ago

 

[TheComicbookKid]

If anything's going to kill Thor, it's going to be everyone coming to the groundless assumption that it's already dead, like some kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.

Well I wouldn't go that far.

But I agree. There' s no way Thor isn't going to happen. When is a question in my mind.

 

[Evil Twin]

I think there's still the question of whether Thor's budget can be brought down to a reasonable level as opposed to whether Marvel/Disney can afford to finance it. A $300 million Thor is likely a Thor that loses money, probably a lot. As is a $250 million Thor. A $200 million Thor is probably risky as well. Is a $150 million Thor doable?

I do think that Disney does have more options. I've no doubt that Cars 2 would play well in winter, although it's obvious why Disney would want a Christmas DVD release of a Pixar movie.

 

[Chewy]

I don't think they would have moved forward with Branagh's version of the film unless he was able to get the budget around $150M. They wouldn't move forward with Vaughn's version of it because he couldn't get the budget that low

 

[TheCorpulent1]

$150 million is no small change. I think they should be able to make a good Thor movie with that.

 

[Evil Twin]

I don't think they would have moved forward with Branagh's version of the film unless he was able to get the budget around $150M. They wouldn't move forward with Vaughn's version of it because he couldn't get the budget that low

Yeah, but it's a process. The goal may be to keep it around $150M, but it may be easier said than done. We don't know what the current cost estimates are coming back at and whether more cuts are needed to meet that goal or not.

They haven't moved forward to filming yet. It's still likely, but it's not written in stone either.

 

[Chewy]

Yeah, but they wouldn't even move forward to casting on Vaughn's version unless he got the budget down to $150M, which he wouldn't/couldn't do.

Of course it is easier said than done, and budgets are constantly in flux during a film's pre-pro stage (and throughout production), but I think they probably have the budget on their minds constantly given their over-spending/under-earning on Incredible Hulk.

 

[TheVileOne]

I of course am not in a position to say that for sure, but from what little I know about the process of film production, I'd imagine that extensive pre-production, writing the script, bringing a name director onboard, and hiring several actors in key roles tend to come after "Do we have any money to make this film?"

Yeah its not that simple. Have you not seen how much money has been burned before in the pre-production stages of movies that never made it to the screen?

 

[Keyser Soze]

Yeah its not that simple. Have you not seen how much money has been burned before in the pre-production stages of movies that never made it to the screen?

Sure, but there's been nothing whatsoever to suggest that Thor will be such a film. Yes, a film's release isn't certain until cameras start rolling, and even then it can be up in the air, but nothing whatsoever has pointed to this being a film on the brink, or a film that can't be financed. The only inkling of budget troubles was when Matthew Vaughn left because he couldn't do the film on-budget, but as others have said I think it's a safe assumption that the director who replaced him could.

 

[Evil Twin]

Just to stop with the gloom and doom, I do think it's fair to file Dave Poland's comment under "unconfirmed rumor" for now.

It wouldn't be particularly surprising given the history if the budget is still giving them problems, but it's certainly not something any of us are going to know at this stage.

 

[Keyser Soze]

Just to stop with the gloom and doom, I do think it's fair to file Dave Poland's comment under "unconfirmed rumor" for now.

It wouldn't be particularly surprising given the history if the budget is still giving them problems, but it's certainly not something any of us are going to know at this stage.

It's not even "unconfirmed rumor". It's not a "rumor" anymore than me going on the Captain America casting thread and saying Philip Seymour Hoffman should play Cap makes that a rumor. Like I said, "worst case scenario conjecture" sounds more appropriate.