Discussion: Congress, The Senate, The House of Representatives - Part I

[squeekness]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[squeekness]

I hope it works and the Republicans lose a bunch of seats.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

NY Times - House Passes Overhaul of Electoral Count, Moving to Avert Another Jan. 6 Crisis

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Democrats still on track today to lose the House of Representatives based on 538's current aggregate.

August 5, 2018: D 47.6% R 40.1% o/u 12.3% (D+7.5) (actual November result D+8.6)
August 5, 2020: D 48.2% R 40.5% o/u 11.3% (D+7.8) (actual November result D+3.0)
August 5, 2022: D 44.2% R 44.1% o/u 11.7% (D+0.1)

(RCP is the rightwing website RealClearPolitics)

Any lead below around 2.5 is more likely than not enough for Democrats to overcome gerrymandering in most scenarios. The lead of 3 in 2020 narrowly gave the Democrats 51% of the House.

See also: Discussion: Congress, The Senate, The House of Representatives - Part I

It's very difficult for the party of the president to not lose legislative seats in the midterms. It's not impossible to win but there's only a slim chance.

There's a much better chance of expanding the Democratic Senate (like the Republicans did for themselves in 2018 despite losing the House.)

FiveThirtyEight: Democrats +1.2; undecideds/other/no answers 11.4%

Democrats need to get to around +2 for their chances to be 50/50 on holding the House with around a 218D/217R majority or the opposite 217D/218R for Republicans. That's why I think targeting 2.5 is safer. 3 points is what gave them their current majority.

Democrats are now at +2 points in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Political Wire - [Senate] Republicans Block Bill to Disclose Dark Money

'No we want our sources of money to be secret.'

 

[squeekness]

Political Wire - [Senate] Republicans Block Bill to Disclose Dark Money

'No we want our sources of money to be secret.'

They don't want to be outed for the sleazebags they are.

 

[DJ Kornphlake]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Daily Kos - House GOP’s Stefanik says it’s all Democrats’ fault that voters are angry over abortion (liberal blog)

No, it's the Republican Supreme Court appointed by Republican Presidents and confirmed by Republican Senators fault.

 

[Sithborg]

We also need to fix the freaking jones act. Keeps screwing over Puerto Rico.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Daily Kos - Young people are registering to vote in massive numbers post-Dobbs, but we're running out of time

stares stop registering new voters eligible for 2022, that’s why.

meanwhile I’m just waiting for my mail ballot to arrive.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The Hill - House GOP calls for ‘no’ vote on CR

The tantrum babies want a government shutdown right now.

 

[Lily Adler]

'People Power Has Won The Day': Manchin Dirty Deal Defeated (commondreams.org)

 

[squeekness]

'People Power Has Won The Day': Manchin Dirty Deal Defeated (commondreams.org)

Good.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[squeekness]

Well at least some work is getting done......

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Republicans: Let's always blame mental health not guns and ammo!

Also Republicans:



Completely performative lies on their part. Doing nothing beyond putting more guns and ammo in the hands of criminals so that the manufacturers make more money and fund the Republican party with it.

House passes bill addressing mental health concerns among students, families, educators | The Hill

 

[squeekness]

Republicans: Let's always blame mental health not guns and ammo!

Also Republicans:



Completely performative lies on their part. Doing nothing beyond putting more guns and ammo in the hands of criminals so that the manufacturers make more money and fund the Republican party with it.

I suppose I should be surprised....but I'm not. They care about no one.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Reuters - U.S. House approves merger antitrust bill giving states more muscle

The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved a bill that would sharply raise fees for antitrust reviews of the biggest mergers and strengthen state attorneys general in antitrust fights.

The bipartisan bill, which has yet to pass the U.S. Senate, combines a merger fee bill introduced by Representative Joe Neguse, a Democrat, and a measure to mandate that state attorneys general can pick the venue for antitrust lawsuits, which was introduced by Representative Ken Buck, a Republican.

The bill, which passed the House 242-184, is one of several measures under consideration that would strengthen antitrust enforcers to rein in Big Tech.

One bill would bar Big Tech companies like Alphabet's Google and Amazon.com from preferencing their own products on platforms while another addresses Apple's and Google's clout in their app stores. Hopes are dimming that they will become law this year.

The legislation the House approved on Thursday would lower fees paid for antitrust reviews of smaller deals to as little as $30,000. Bigger deals would be more expensive. Deals worth $5 billion or more would pay $2.25 million for their review.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The Week - GOP leaders, business groups reportedly spooked the GOP might force a debt crisis if GOP wins House

There’s thousands of reasons people shouldn’t vote Republican.

Here’s another.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[squeekness]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Nancy Pelosi Throws Shade At Trump & Makes Bold Prediction About Midterm Election Results [that Democrats retain House majority] – Deadline

Gonna be tough

Rs midterm vote average (1982-2018) when Ds are president = 50.40% (54.14% of House seats; 236R-199D)
Ds midterm vote average (1982-2018) when Ds are president = 45.38% (45.75% of House seats; 236R-199D)

Ds midterm vote average (1982-2018) when Rs are president = 51.87% (56.17% of House seats; 244D-190R)
Rs midterm vote average (1982-2018) when Rs are president = 44.88% (43.68% of House seats; 244D-190R)

Democratic average seat peak (244) + nadir (199) / 2 = 222
Republican average seat peak (236) + nadir (190) / 2 = 213

See also: table, chart
See also: history (since at least the 1840s the incumbent party holding the White House loses federal seats 93% of the time in midterm elections)

FiveThirtyEight.com current average Democrats +1.3 popular vote