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Democrats still on track today to lose the House of Representatives based on 538's current aggregate.
August 5, 2018: D 47.6% R 40.1% o/u 12.3% (D+7.5) (actual November result D+8.6)
August 5, 2020: D 48.2% R 40.5% o/u 11.3% (D+7.8) (actual November result D+3.0)
August 5, 2022: D 44.2% R 44.1% o/u 11.7% (D+0.1)
(RCP is the rightwing website RealClearPolitics)
Any lead below around 2.5 is more likely than not enough for Democrats to overcome gerrymandering in most scenarios. The lead of 3 in 2020 narrowly gave the Democrats 51% of the House.
See also: Discussion: Congress, The Senate, The House of Representatives - Part I
It's very difficult for the party of the president to not lose legislative seats in the midterms. It's not impossible to win but there's only a slim chance.
There's a much better chance of expanding the Democratic Senate (like the Republicans did for themselves in 2018 despite losing the House.)
FiveThirtyEight: Democrats +1.2; undecideds/other/no answers 11.4%
Democrats need to get to around +2 for their chances to be 50/50 on holding the House with around a 218D/217R majority or the opposite 217D/218R for Republicans. That's why I think targeting 2.5 is safer. 3 points is what gave them their current majority.
They don't want to be outed for the sleazebags they are.Political Wire - [Senate] Republicans Block Bill to Disclose Dark Money
'No we want our sources of money to be secret.'
Republicans: Let's always blame mental health not guns and ammo!
Also Republicans:
Completely performative lies on their part. Doing nothing beyond putting more guns and ammo in the hands of criminals so that the manufacturers make more money and fund the Republican party with it.
The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved a bill that would sharply raise fees for antitrust reviews of the biggest mergers and strengthen state attorneys general in antitrust fights.
The bipartisan bill, which has yet to pass the U.S. Senate, combines a merger fee bill introduced by Representative Joe Neguse, a Democrat, and a measure to mandate that state attorneys general can pick the venue for antitrust lawsuits, which was introduced by Representative Ken Buck, a Republican.
The bill, which passed the House 242-184, is one of several measures under consideration that would strengthen antitrust enforcers to rein in Big Tech.
One bill would bar Big Tech companies like Alphabet's Google and Amazon.com from preferencing their own products on platforms while another addresses Apple's and Google's clout in their app stores. Hopes are dimming that they will become law this year.
The legislation the House approved on Thursday would lower fees paid for antitrust reviews of smaller deals to as little as $30,000. Bigger deals would be more expensive. Deals worth $5 billion or more would pay $2.25 million for their review.