🇺🇸 Discussion: General Election 2024, 🥥 VS 🍊

US News
Simon Rosenberg (link): "As polling community preps for home stretch hope they will note that Ds are, so far, outperforming 2020 in the early vote, suggesting our team has more intensity now. It's even more pronounced in the Presidential battlegrounds. Here's the latest natl data, via TargetEarly:

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"

Change from 2020 to 2024
Democrats -3,257,553
Republicans -2,235,445
Independents -839,277
Total -6,332,275

Despite Rosenberg's hopium, early turnout is way way down from 2020 (turnout 66.6%, D+3.0 House lead) and that is concerning. That similar level of turnout in 2024 is why Democrats lost the House in 2022 (turnout 46.6%, R+2.7 House lead). Granted, slightly more people may vote in-person on election day since 2020 was Covid19 early era. What this tells me is there is more of a lack of enthusiasm to vote in 2024 - for either candidate - than there was in 2020 even accounting for that.
Maybe I'm missing something, but the 2020 numbers are final and not at this point in the election cycle. Right? So, there's still a lot of time to early vote in many states. I just got my ballot the day before yesterday and sent it in yesterday. Also, we were in a COVID situation and most states recognized that were more lenient about early voting (I think). I think it would also be true that the people who would vote for Biden were cognizant of the fact that voting in person carried a certain risk and would take more of an opportunity to vote early, whereas many Trump voters thought (thought may be too kind of a word), well, otherwise and were more likely to vote on Election Day.
 
Maybe I'm missing something, but the 2020 numbers are final and not at this point in the election cycle. Right? So, there's still a lot of time to early vote in many states. I just got my ballot the day before yesterday and sent it in yesterday. Also, we were in a COVID situation and most states recognized that were more lenient about early voting (I think). I think it would also be true that the people who would vote for Biden were cognizant of the fact that voting in person carried a certain risk and would take more of an opportunity to vote early, whereas many Trump voters thought (thought may be too kind of a word), well, otherwise and were more likely to vote on Election Day.
No those weren’t the 2020 final as of November early vote numbers.

 
Hmm, why are the odds creeping back in Donnie's favour? So hard to get this thing over the line, even when he's showing every day how far from able he is to take on this role for another 4 years.
 
Hmm, why are the odds creeping back in Donnie's favour? So hard to get this thing over the line, even when he's showing every day how far from able he is to take on this role for another 4 years.
In any other country, Trump would have been sent to federal prison a long time ago. :(
 
No those weren’t the 2020 final as of November early vote numbers.

It would be nice to see those timeline charts with 2024 numbers. My guess is that they will always be smaller (mainly because of COVID), but that doesn't make early voting unimportant.
 
Hmm, why are the odds creeping back in Donnie's favour? So hard to get this thing over the line, even when he's showing every day how far from able he is to take on this role for another 4 years.



Domer : Biggest current user on Polymarket is "Fredi9999" -- who is himself a curiosity.

He is by far the largest holder of Trump shares, checking in at 7.2 million shares and counting.

The user has a total of $6.4 million in positions, all of them on Trump. He also has a lot of cash x.com

See Domer Domahhhh's tweet

Betting markets are pretty much all white male crypto bros who vote Republican anyway every election so it’s not representative of the larger electorate. They also ‘predicted’ Shapiro would be VP for the Democrats until the very last day.
 

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