Simon Rosenberg (link): "As polling community preps for home stretch hope they will note that Ds are, so far, outperforming 2020 in the early vote, suggesting our team has more intensity now. It's even more pronounced in the Presidential battlegrounds. Here's the latest natl data, via TargetEarly:
"
Change from 2020 to 2024
Democrats -3,257,553
Republicans -2,235,445
Independents -839,277
Total -6,332,275
Despite Rosenberg's hopium, early turnout is way way down from 2020 (turnout 66.6%, D+3.0 House lead) and that is concerning. That similar level of turnout in 2024 is why Democrats lost the House in 2022 (turnout 46.6%, R+2.7 House lead). Granted, slightly more people may vote in-person on election day since 2020 was Covid19 early era. What this tells me is there is more of a lack of enthusiasm to vote in 2024 - for either candidate - than there was in 2020 even accounting for that.