🇺🇸 Discussion: General Election 2024, 🥥 VS 🍊

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[squeekness]

Hope he's wrong about this like he is about a lot of other things.

 

[BatLobster]

 

[Zarex]

If the Republican nominee was Charlie Baker nobody would be sweating bricks like NCAA athletes.

I’m a big fan of Chuck and voted him for governor three times. He’s a classic Rockefeller Republican, the likes of which have been sadly drummed out of the GOP by the evangelicals, alt righters and MAGATS that have taken over my former party. It’s a shame a competent good government politician like him has zero chance of winning a Republican primary.

 

[DKDetective]

Unfortunately the money bullying worked. The bullying will next turn against Vice President Harris.



Past 100 years:

presidents who won reelection (71%)
Democrats: 88% (7/8 elections) | Republicans: 56% (5/9 elections)

presidents who won open presidency (incumbent stepped aside for nomination or incumbent term limited)
Republicans 75% (6/8 elections) | Democrats 25% (2/8 elections)

presidents who declined reelection chance and were 'replaced' as nominees with someone else and that someone else won (33%)
Republicans 100% (1/1 election) | Democrats 0% (0/2 elections)

The election gets harder historically from here.

As somebody who graduated at the top of their class with a history degree from a national university (I have the gold medal to prove it) and has actually published papers,

History and the conclusions to be drawn from it are not about blind statistics. Real historical analysis and thought is about analysing the forces at play. To paraphrase Lord Toranaga from Shogun, it is about "studying the wind".

Biden is a decade older than the previous oldest President, Reagan, when he sought re-election, a President we all now know was suffering from Alzheimer's in office. The extremeness of Biden's age already makes him a statistical outlier. The most important trend to look at with presidents making re-election bids is the economy and how people feel about it. Presidents who are overseeing an economic downturn or recession at the time of seeking re-election tend to lose their re-election bids and those who are overseeing growth/boom ride that wave to re-election. Despite the pains of inflation, which are finally cooling, the US economy remains strong. Despite that, Biden has been lagging behind Trump in the polls for weeks. Which means there is something abnormal at play here.

If we want to look at the forces at play here, the closest analogue is 2016. People are de-sensitized to Trump's craziness. The Democrats have proven they cannot just beat him by pointing to themselves as not being Trump. In 2016, Clinton lost because she was a very flawed candidate that a lot of people disliked. Even though Trump's misconduct was the leading story of that election, her emails kept rearing their head. Biden this year is similarly a very flawed candidate. He can barely speak and string a sentence together. He sounds very weak. For any non-elderly voters, he clearly presents the all too familiar image of a parent or grandparent who is on the decline and suffering from cognitive issues. That may not be the actual case, but that is how it looks.

We also know from the Kennedy-Nixon debate that appearances are more important than competence when the general public evaluates presidential candidates. Although almost as old and prone to gaffs and rambling, Trump still projects an image of strength and energy.

Running Biden against Trump is most similar to 2016 where Hillary's decades of baggage turned off many independents and other swing voters. Biden is in the same situation and it was right thing for him to withdraw provided that the Party quickly coalesces around Harris.

 

[Lily Adler]

Wow Redditors bullying a transgender account for fearing for their life in a Trump presidency. Also a lot of downplaying of Project 2025.

 

[Lily Adler]

Yeah there are some idiot opinions here and many trying to tell people to not worry about Trump winning.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Biden's exit makes Trump the oldest nominee in U.S. history​

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/21/kamala-harris-age-presidential-nominee

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[Drizzle]

Biden's exit makes Trump the oldest nominee in U.S. history​

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/21/kamala-harris-age-presidential-nominee

View attachment 97651

Heh. Biden pulled a Reverse Uno card on Old Man Trump.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Oh, this is going to be fun.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Also on the bright side no adult sons acting like dumb dumbs

 

[Snow Queen]

 

[Lobo]

#2 but you know when Kamala wins, Hilary will feel some kind of way lol

 

[Lily Adler]

#2 but you know when Kamala wins, Hilary will feel some kind of way lol

SNL better bring back Hillary and Maya's Kamala for a skit.

 

[mclay18]

State parties from NC, SC, NH and TN are already pledging their delegates to VP Kamala now. One of Biden’s campaign officials say that she will likely clinch the number of delegates needed for the nomination by end of business day Wednesday.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Politico claims Biden hadn't done any campaign polling in two months but they just delivered their latest opinion polling to Biden and his campaign aides told him there wasn't a path to victory in November and that's when he decided to bow out. They also claimed fundraising was down, with the rich people pulling out their money from not only Biden's campaign but Democrats in general.

 

[Iceman]

Politico claims Biden hadn't done any campaign polling in two months but they just delivered their latest opinion polling to Biden and his campaign aides told him there wasn't a path to victory in November and that's when he decided to bow out. They also claimed fundraising was down, with the rich people pulling out their money from not only Biden's campaign but Democrats in general.

He’s made the right decision after taking everything into account. Definitely not an easy decision to make, but hopefully the right one to give the country/the world a chance.

 

[mclay18]

All 50 state Democratic Party chairs back VP Kamala. She’s pretty much a lock for the nomination at this stage.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Politico claims Biden hadn't done any campaign polling in two months but they just delivered their latest opinion polling to Biden and his campaign aides told him there wasn't a path to victory in November and that's when he decided to bow out. They also claimed fundraising was down, with the rich people pulling out their money from not only Biden's campaign but Democrats in general.

That sounds like some long term negligence on his campaign's part.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

That sounds like some long term negligence on his campaign's part.

Yeah, I've read other people say the same elsewhere.

Obviously I was already annoyed at the debate prep.

I posted a story or Tweet a week or two ago that the campaign was going to commission polls for both Harris and Biden to try to tamp down any more uproar. I guess that's what that was.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah, I've read other people say the same elsewhere.

Obviously I was already annoyed at the debate prep.

I posted a story or Tweet a week or two ago that the campaign was going to commission polls for both Harris and Biden. I guess that's what that was.

It feels like it explains a lot.

 

[DKDetective]

He’s made the right decision after taking everything into account. Definitely not an easy decision to make, but hopefully the right one to give the country/the world a chance.

Let's hope he didn't make it too late. If Harris doesn't win this, it is on Biden, his family, and inner circle for waiting far too long instead of being honest with themselves and the nation. If there had been a proper primary season, the Dems could have taken time to choose the best candidate instead of having to go with the VP as a default.

Hopefully, Harris can bring back those fearsome debate and speaking skills she had during the confirmation hearings for Trump's cabinet and judicial appointments.

 

[DKDetective]

That sounds like some long term negligence on his campaign's part.

More than negligence, that is MAGA-style sycophantism. First, there was the whole Feinstein Weekend at Bernie's debacle and now this.

And people wonder why progressives criticize the Dem leadership and establishment for being ineffective.