Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming? - Part 4

[Zarex]

But the X-Men are the only Marvel rights Iger could justify paying for. The rest he has to argue are worthless because there's no way of knowing they'd make a premium over films starring one of the 7,000 Marvel characters they already have.

I may be - ok, definitely am - biased on this, but my thinking it is justifiable to overpay on rights that could shake out of a failed Fox bid. Are investors going to sell off their Disney stock if Iger negotiates the $1.52B breakup fee into Marvel and Star Wars rights? I don't think so.

 

[Iceman]

Well how do we know that Comcast would sell the Marvel parts to Disney and not to someone else? They might try to sell off other assets and hold onto Marvel just for the sake of it.

I don't know if that is such a good strategy trying to get the Marvel assets later on. Comcast could try to make their own set of Marvel movies.

Would Marvel even want to buy them, considering they've been doing perfectly well without X-Men and FF so far? Would they see that there's no point in spending that since they haven't seen a need to buy them from Fox before this deal?

I prefer that Disney win and then maybe sell off Sky to Comcast also in exchange for the remaining Marvel rights than to lose and then try to buy the Marvel rights from Comcast, which may not even happen.

Comcast could hold onto and use the rights themselves sure (clock would be ticking though), but I very much doubt they sell them to anyone but Disney as they are worth much more to Disney. The properties fit right into and can significantly enhance and extend the lifecycle of the MCU, while in anyone else's hands those rights would be subject to restrictions reducing their value.

 

[MasterCat]

I may be - ok, definitely am - biased on this, but my thinking it is justifiable to overpay on rights that could shake out of a failed Fox bid. Are investors going to sell off their Disney stock if Iger negotiates the $1.52B breakup fee into Marvel and Star Wars rights? I don't think so.

Depends on whether he could convince the board that the X-Men rights and rights to stream/sell boxed sets of old Star Wars films are worth $1.52 billion. Paying even $1 million for the Fantastic 4 or Namor rights would justify the board rebelling, and also shareholders. Hulk they don't even LACK the rights to use, it's just some BS about distribution when the word "Hulk" is in a film title.

 

[Zarex]

Depends on whether he could convince the board that the X-Men rights and rights to stream/sell boxed sets of old Star Wars films are worth $1.52 billion. Paying even $1 million for the Fantastic 4 or Namor rights would justify the board rebelling, and also shareholders. Hulk they don't even LACK the rights to use, it's just some BS about distribution when the word "Hulk" is in a film title.

I doubt very much the board would even be involved in the deal. $1.52B is pocket change compared to the money that's being thrown around. If Iger has to settle for a consolation prize I doubt shareholders would care in which form he decides to take it.

 

[MasterCat]

I doubt very much the board would even be involved in the deal. $1.52B is pocket change compared to the money that's being thrown around. If Iger has to settle for a consolation prize I doubt shareholders would care in which form he decides to take it.

If he takes the equivalent of beans instead of $1.52 billion cash, they would care.

 

[spider-neil]

Comcast can't sell the rights to anyone. People should remember Fox does not own all the rights to these characters. They simply own the rights to have these characters in movies and TV and those rights are not transferable, and so if they have to sell it, it can only be back to Marvel.

Fox doesn't own TV rights for Marvel characters. They had to get permission for Legion.

 

[Zarex]

If he takes the equivalent of beans instead of $1.52 billion cash, they would care.

"We have recently completed a transaction with Comcast to simplify our relationship. Disney has acquired all the Marvel and Star Wars rights held by the combined Comcast-FOX entity. This includes the Marvel theme park rights held by Comcast, which will revert to Disney within a four year time span. In exchange, we will forgo the buyout fee due to Disney from the proposed 21st Century Fox acquisition and transfer the theme park rights to the Avatar franchise to Comcast within the same four year time span. We won't get into the specifics of this two way transaction, but we expect it will drive attractive returns for Disney."

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

"We have recently completed a transaction with Comcast to simplify our relationship. Disney has acquired all the Marvel and Star Wars rights held by the combined Comcast-FOX entity. This includes the Marvel theme park rights held by Comcast, which will revert to Disney within a four year time span. In exchange, we will forgo the buyout fee due to Disney from the proposed 21st Century Fox acquisition and transfer the theme park rights to the Avatar franchise to Comcast within the same four year time span. We won't get into the specifics of this two way transaction, but we expect it will drive attractive returns for Disney."

If Comcast buys Fox, they will have several things that Disney wants:

A share of Sky
A share of Hulu
Avatar
Star Wars Episode 4 distribution rights
X-Men rights
FF rights
Theme Park rights
Hulk and Namor rights
Rights to thousands of other films and TV shows
etc. etc. etc. etc.

Comcast would be deep in dept and Disney would be flush with cash.

Disney would likely try to purchase some of those assets and Comcast would likely be interested in getting some cash by selling the ones that aren't key to their long-term plan.

How much Disney would get and how much they would pay for what they get would be a negotiation and depend on the specifics, but after Disney bid $71 billion for Fox, they're not going to walk away without trying to get something else, and after Comcast paid $90+ billion for Fox, they're going to entertain offers.

X-Men rights and FF rights are worth more to Disney than they are to Comcast, so those will be some of the easiest items to come to an agreement on.

Disney isn't going to pay exactly $1.52 billion and get exactly the FF rights and the X-Men rights. That's a ridiculous oversimplification, but the $1.52 billion is part of the cash disparity that would exist between Disney and Comcast if such a hypothetical happened, so Disney could use that cash plus other cash to get items they want.

 

[Detective Conan]

If you put it that way, that makes sense though for me If Comcast got Fox that they would mean a delay in the FF coming home. And I’d much prefer if the deal was done with Disney.

But I’ll take what I can get.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

If you put it that way, that makes sense though for me If Comcast got Fox that they would mean a delay in the FF coming home. And I’d much prefer if the deal was done with Disney.

But I’ll take what I can get.

Absolutely. It would be great to have this wrapped up with a neat little bow before the end of the year.

But after all I've seen over the years, I'm not going to get overly upset in the unlikely event that Comcast buys all of Fox, because if that happens, I also think it's unlikely that Comcast will make an FF film on their own before 2022.

So the odds are in our favor even if Comcast is crazy enough to try another bid.

 

[Detective Conan]

Yes, at the very least the FF comes home either way. Though I might feel bad for some X-fans who’ve also wanted the Mutants in the MCU. While I can see FF and A New Hope Distriution rights being sold off/ or negotiated with Disney for them to get — something tells me Comcast won’t let go of the X-Men. With Fantastic Four those rights are useless without the MCU at this point and the New Hope rights are useless as Disney owns the rest of the Star Wars so Comcast can’t do anything with them at all.

But X-Men....I dunno I just can’t see them giving up something as valuable as X-Men and Deadpool.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Yes, at the very least the FF comes home either way. Though I might feel bad for some X-fans who’ve also wanted the Mutants in the MCU. While I can see FF and A New Hope Distriution rights being sold off/ or negotiated with Disney for them to get — something tells me Comcast won’t let go of the X-Men. With Fantastic Four those rights are useless without MCU at this point and the New Hope rights are useless as Disney owns the rest of the Star Wars so Comcast can’t do anything with them at all.

But X-Men....I dunno I just can’t see them giving up something as valuable as X-Men and Deadpool.

Well in the event Comcast buys it, they likely won't close until after New Mutants and Dark Phoenix.

And I have a feeling after those turds have been laid, the X-Men rights won't seem as valuable as they did at one time.

 

[Detective Conan]

I actually completely forgot about New Mutants...

 

[Dark Raven]

Sony have been dumb enough to make Venom and tried Silver and Black. Fox were dumb enough to make Fant4stic. Why do we think that Comcast won't be dumb enough to try to make another Fantastic Four movie on their own?

We've seen some completely illogical decisions before. We could easily see one again. A quick production between the end of 2019 (which is when Comcast might finally see the deal through with Fox) and early 2020.

 

[spider-neil]

The X-men and FF rights are very important to Marvel. Yes, they have other characters they can roll out but X-men and FF already have general audience awareness so won't be a hard sell.
With that said, how funny would it be to see Howard the Duck, Moon Knight, Squirrel Girl, Shang Chi etc on the big screen. Marvel taking chances on unknown characters has paid off spectacularly for them in the past (GotG).

 

[Spider-Fan]

Howard the Duck already has been in the MCU

If that New Warriors show ever materializes, then the MCU has Squirrel Girl as well.

 

[spider-neil]

Howard the Duck already has been in the MCU

If that New Warriors show ever materializes, then the MCU has Squirrel Girl as well.

A solo movie, not an after credit cameo.

 

[Big Bang]

Absolutely. It would be great to have this wrapped up with a neat little bow before the end of the year.

But after all I've seen over the years, I'm not going to get overly upset in the unlikely event that Comcast buys all of Fox, because if that happens, I also think it's unlikely that Comcast will make an FF film on their own before 2022.

So the odds are in our favor even if Comcast is crazy enough to try another bid.

It's very possible it could. The earliest right now is the early fall once the judge approves the sale of Fox's RSN's, and by then they could very well clear regulatory review internationally. Under that scenario, they can close pretty much immediately once the judge signs off (assuming the international review is complete).

Everyday that goes by and Comcast still doesn't have any partners is time they don't have to spare. We're already 28 days out from the shareholders voting. Many of the same parties Comcast is looking to partner up are probably more interested in investing in Disney once this deal closes instead of taking a risk with Comcast.

 

[Dark Raven]

Howard the Duck was in Guardians.

 

[spider-neil]

If Disney close the deal in 2018 what of the chances of an after credit scene with FF or X-men in Avengers 4? Is fiming for A4 already wrapped?

 

[spider-neil]

Howard the Duck was in Guardians.

I meant a solo movie. Back in the day, Lucas didn't have the budget to do Howard the Duck Justice.

 

[MasterCat]

Who's Howard the Duck Justice? Is he in the Duck Justice League?

 

[Jh7058622]

If Disney close the deal in 2018 what of the chances of an after credit scene with FF or X-men in Avengers 4? Is fiming for A4 already wrapped?

I find that highly unlikely but they really rushed Spidey's entry with CW so who knows?

 

[Dark Raven]

I meant a solo movie. Back in the day, Lucas didn't have the budget to do Howard the Duck Justice.

I don't think he's interesting enough on his own. Maybe in small doses in an ensemble film, but not 2 hours of him. Even Rocket Raccoon and Groot are used in relatively small doses and as part of a larger ensemble.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Howard I think is a good, whacky side character also. I think a solo would be meh.