No, they can't. There's this whole foreign coproduction deal that you probably already know about (which maybe you're referencing there with "Lightsgate", though I'm not really sure) someone else can probably explain far better than me. Bottom line being that NBC can really only drop Hannibal from their lineup of shows, they can't cancel it entirely because it's not really even their show.
Yes they can. A foreign co-production and broadcasting means nothing. The fact is, if the show gets dropped by NBC, the production company will shut it down until it has somewhere States side to air it. That is just the reality of Hollywood. A production company is not going to pay to produce a show, designed for American audiences, without a place to air it in the United States. Until a concrete deal is in place to air it somewhere in the US, Hannibal will effectively be cancelled.
Once production shuts down, things get really complicated. I guarantee all of the actors' contracts become more or less worthless once production is shut down. That is, they are free to option out of the contract if they so choose, which they will because they will be looking for new work. Once the actors start terminating their contracts, the chances of this show getting picked up by Amazon, Netflix, AMC, TNT, whoever, becomes slim to none.
You can say that NBC cannot cancel it all you want, but that is frankly, delusional. NBC may not be able to shut down production, but once they pull it from their lineup, the show is functionally and effectively canceled.
That isn't to say that the show is definitely dead but it is on life support right now. It has two things going for it though:
1) The possibility of another network picking it up...but frankly, I see that as a pipe dream. While it isn't impossible, it isn't likely either. Maybe after season one, but the longer a show goes, the less return a network is likely to get from picking it up. Beyond that, the ratings for Hannibal have been abysmal. There has been no second season growth as you will sometimes see with a serialized show, once viewers have a chance to catch up and hype grows during hiatus. Rather, the show's viewers have declined. Furthermore, a pickup would have to be nearly instantaneous to avoid the actors optioning out of the contract as I discussed. That doesn't seem likely for a serialized show with a fairly convoluted mythology, a relatively high production budget and very low ratings. Networks are going to want to think this one through if Fueller starts pitching it.
Yes, it has happened with shows like Scrubs (but Disney got syndication returns out of that) and Buffy (UPN was in a bad place, trying to build a brand and frankly the gamble didn't pay off for them....notice they didn't repeat that mistake with Angel?). But more often than not, it will be a Firefly type of deal. Fans beg other networks to pick it up and it just never comes to pass.
The fact is, the show's best bet is NBC keeping it around. The dire state of NBC works in favor of Hannibal. Basically, every scripted show on NBC (with the exception of The Blacklist) would have been cancelled years ago on any other network (Community, Parks and Rec, Parenthood, Revolution, even SVU is a shadow of its former self and would get the axe on any other network).
The problem with this is, NBC has tried this show in two time slots and neither has worked. Even when paired with Grimm, which does fairly well for a Friday night niche show (like Hannibal), Hannibal loses between 60 and 70 % of Grimm's lead-in audience. That isn't good news for Hannibal. Even on Friday night....1.8-2 million viewers is AWFUL and NBC is getting nothing out of DVR and online viewing (no matter how much fans in denial would like to believe otherwise...Neilsen ratings still rule network thinking).
On the plus side, NBC has nothing to replace it with. Their drama pilots all sound God awful. The only successful drama rolled out by NBC this year was The Blacklist and I think that could be Hannibal's saving grace. I think NBC may try to team Hannibal with The Blacklist. They are thematically similar and both are intended for older audiences and deal with more graphic content, characters and themes than your average network show. The Blacklist is averaging about 11 million viewers per episode (which is huge for NBC). If Hannibal could retain even a quarter of that lead-in, it would be a good move.
Based on NBC's terrible situation, I give this show a 50/50 chance of surviving. That said, if NBC pulls the plug....odds are pretty good that this show is dead (85-90 % chance).
It is a shame because this show has been fantastic this season, but for whatever reason it just can't find an audience.
That's probably in reference to the fact that NBC, like most corporations, have a lot of layers. Whether or not a show gets canceled probably has to go through several channels before anything can be officially done. We think and talk about networks like a single entity, but they're actually a lot of different levels to them.
But, getting away from all that, season three is suppose to be Hannibal on the run by Fuller's outline, right? I have mixed feelings about that. I have faith in Fuller and the team to deliver excellence either way, but I kind of wish they'd go right into Red Dragon. I don't feel we need a Hannibal on the run season to be honest.
But Pitt's hair is great there. That guy just has great haircuts.
I agree entirely. I don't want to see Hannibal on the run. It could be done more effectively if we ever get a post-Silence of the Lambs season (with Will coming out of retirement to hunt his foe down and finally giving closure to their story, which Thomas Harris has failed to do). Plus, we have effectively seen Hannibal on the run for two years. He may not have always been a suspect, but he has been taking actions to cover up his crimes and avoid the FBI's detection. We don't need a third season of it. I would much prefer a retelling of Red Dragon as season three.