The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

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For the new thread.
 
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There's no doubt that GotG 2 will not be in the same neighborhood as Ep 8, but I suspect it will do fine. I could see Ep 8 having a big, big opening, but, unless it's really, really (and I mean REALLY) good, it won't have TFA's final totals. Biggest of '17 if it's released then. Most likely. I don't see Avatar 2 doing Avatar numbers unless its really, really (and I mean REALLY :woot: ) good.
 
I say $900M to $1.1 billion, the hype is insane since the last film.
 
Sithborg said:
Yeah, the MCU doesn't exactly have strong legs for most of their films.
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December releases usually have better legs than summer films.

Though Ant-Man had pretty good legs recently.
 
DarthSkywalker said:
I am curious, how much do people expect GotG2 to make in its what, 4th weekend up against VIII.

AoU numbers:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=avengers2.htm

$28m over the four day 4th weekend, with no major releases to speak of.
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I think it's impossible to say because we don't know how good it will be. I'd say anywhere from 15 to 25M *4th weekend DOM). I think it will open to over 100M. If it's really, really (and I mean.....), I could see it doing about the same numbers as GotG (DOM), but that'll be tough if it's up against episode 8 4th week. The one thing that hurt its WW numbers is that the humor doesn't really translate well because there were a lot of idioms and it goes over people's heads (get it, goes over their head? Get it? Get it? huh? :cwink: ).

The dialogue from $#!tformers: Age of SuckStinktion was much, much better. My favorite (and most linguistically complex) line was "I'll kill you". Snappy, to the point, and well delivered. Man, what an outstanding movie that was (If you like big, stinking piles of poo).
 
MessiahDecoy123 said:
December releases usually have better legs than summer films.

Though Ant-Man had pretty good legs recently.
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Definitely agreed with you there, summers all about opening weekends while winters all about legs.
 
I'm inclined to agree, I honestly do not want to predict GOTG 2's 4th weekend until I see it's marketing campaign and whether or not it's another Iron Man 2/Age of Ultron style disappointment critically and audience wise. Granted Marvel's disappointments are still decently reviewed and make money but I could easily see GOTG 2 not growing it's audience just like I could easily see it growing it's audience. It's too much of an unknown quantity to me right now. I'm just leery because none of the follow ups to Marvel's breakouts did as well as people were expecting. People were expecting 350-400 million for Iron Man 2 and that didn't happen, they were expecting 500+ atleast for AOU and that didn't happen, even Thor: The Dark World didn't do as well as predicted and that was considered the breakout over Captain America: The First Avenger in 2011. Don't get me wrong these films did fine and made money but all came in under expectations.

And yes Iron Man 3 did great due to the Avengers boost but I'm talking about 1st sequels.
 
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Every marvel sequel except AoU, has made more money than it's predecessor, GOTG 2 will do the same, especially with Pratt's popularity.
 
Kind of early to talk about GOTG2.
But I suppose it is Marvels version of SW.
 
Wonder if Disney will rethink it's schedule and release Star Wars episode 8 during Xmas season again. I'm guessing not since everything is planned out years in advance.
 
Well I think it's safe to say that Star Wars is now a film that doesn't run away from competition.

Competition runs away from Star Wars.

:oldrazz:
 
Silver Surfer said:
Every marvel sequel except AoU, has made more money than it's predecessor, GOTG 2 will do the same, especially with Pratt's popularity.
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I know exactly what all of the Marvel films did because I follow the box office, all of what I said still stands because I said nothing to contradict reality.

If you want me to elaborate that is fine but I tried to be as clear as possible.
 
So have we had any Monday numbers yet? Also it sounds like at worst the movie is going to make 900 USA when things are done best 1.2 billion. What about world wide? What do you guys think is the lowest it could make world wide? What do you think is the highest? I am going to say world wide it ends between 2.1billion and 3 billion being the highest.
 
Mysteryman said:
Kind of early to talk about GOTG2.
But I suppose it is Marvels version of SW.
Click to expand...

Avengers, IMO, is the best comparison. That being said, the franchises just aren't comparable. MCU has this huge breadth of characters they can draw on due to the fact that they had comics way, way back when. GotG is relatively new. HP and SW are what I would call movie franchises. MCU is more of a studio franchise. Not sure if that makes sense to others, but Marvel can put out 3 or 4 movies a year. For obvious reasons, SW and HP can't. I'm not going to say this or that is better, but I'm quite sure Disney is very happy to have a couple of these "whatever you want to call them" franchises.

I "think" SW and HP will try (SW obviously is) to broaden the scope of characters in order to cash in. MCU has a built in advantage.

Still, I think recent events have shown that mano y mano, you can't compete with Luke, Han, Leia, etc. Marvel doesn't have to.
 
Hard to believe, if star wars tfa can be the top one domestic and worldwide all time...this euforia end of the year 2015
 
This films gone past a billion dollars so Reek lost his bet. :o
 
jokesonm3 said:
Well I think it's safe to say that Star Wars is now a film that doesn't run away from competition.

Competition runs away from Star Wars.

:oldrazz:
Click to expand...

It already was, but I think the last couple of weeks have proven that Star Wars, despite being the archetypal May blockbuster series, is perhaps better served as a December holiday movie. It is fun for the whole family and has fans of many generations. It just fits this time of year really well in my opinion. While TFA would have done amazing any time of year, I think the current lack of competition and holiday atmosphere is ideal. The next two trilogy movies should stake their claim to this season, despite the 40th anniversary. Disney should just do a theatrical re-release of the original trilogy in their unaltered forms next May as a way to pump people up for Episode 8 and for their release on home video that Christmas.
 
DKDetective said:
It already was, but I think the last couple of weeks have proven that Star Wars, despite being the archetypal May blockbuster series, is perhaps better served as a December holiday movie. It is fun for the whole family and has fans of many generations. It just fits this time of year really well in my opinion. While TFA would have done amazing any time of year, I think the current lack of competition and holiday atmosphere is ideal. The next two trilogy movies should stake their claim to this season, despite the 40th anniversary. Disney should just do a theatrical re-release of the original trilogy in their unaltered forms next May as a way to pump people up for Episode 8 and for their release on home video that Christmas.
Click to expand...

:up::up::up:

And maybe they'll make a couple of bucks while they're at it?? :huh::huh:
 
DKDetective said:
It already was, but I think the last couple of weeks have proven that Star Wars, despite being the archetypal May blockbuster series, is perhaps better served as a December holiday movie. It is fun for the whole family and has fans of many generations. It just fits this time of year really well in my opinion. While TFA would have done amazing any time of year, I think the current lack of competition and holiday atmosphere is ideal. The next two trilogy movies should stake their claim to this season, despite the 40th anniversary. Disney should just do a theatrical re-release of the original trilogy in their unaltered forms next May as a way to pump people up for Episode 8 and for their release on home video that Christmas.
Click to expand...

I definitely agree that Star Wars would be awesome to watch in December, have that christmas feel to it.
 
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