The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[jokesonm3]

You know i wonder how much GOTG2 is gonna get affected on its later weeks by SW8?

 

[spiderman2]

Summer 2017 isn't any more crowded than any other summer.

Agree in fact 2016 has more big movies then like any another year ever.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You know i wonder how much GOTG2 is gonna get affected on its later weeks by SW8?

It won't exist when Star Wars comes out.

 

[Horhey]

I went to see TFA again Saturday night and it was sold out. Saw it Sunday afternoon. There were a few seats left in the front row when the movie started.

 

[InCali]

Everything coming out in May 2017 is about to scatter. You will start hearing about movies quietly moving around and it will be hilarious.

Look at it this way. There is zero reason BvS couldn't come out in December, it makes way more sense then March. Same for Rogue Nation and Kung Fu Panda 3. And yet, none did.

I honestly don't think TFA would have made as much money (long term) if it had come out in May of this year. It's entirely possible that everyone would have run for the hills, but you'd have to release some of these movies some time. It's just more crowded and each new movie release takes a bite out of your BO. It's sort of staggering, however, to think what the first week might have been like if it opened in mid-June or something like that.

I guess we'll never know for sure.....

 

[I Am The Knight]

So what's coming out in May 2017? A Marvel movie I presume.

 

[InCali]

So what's coming out in May 2017? A Marvel movie I presume.

GotG 2 - which I'm really looking forward to. I hope SW does move to December. I think it's a better time slot for it.

I just checked. That summer is jammed.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Domestic weekend actual came in below estimates at $149.2 million. Still a great showing.

 

[Erzengel]

Guardians of the Galaxy 2.

 

[I Am The Knight]

Oh, s***. Well that's gonna be interesting

It's probably gonna move.

 

[InCali]

Domestic weekend actual came in below estimates at $149.2 million. Still a great showing.

A 60% hold is very, very good for a movie that opened that high. Both JW and The Avengers (which were really well received and were huge box office hits) dropped more like 50%.

 

[Wildcard]

It won't exist when Star Wars comes out.

Not true. While Star Wars will of course have the larger numbers, there would be nothing to stop people from going to see both & thus both being phenomenal successes.

This weekend alone just proved that a blockbuster of Star Wars' magnitude can exist alongside other successful movies.

So, nah, SW would get the #1 spot but GOTG 2 would be very much alive at the b.o. Assuming there isn't a change of date, of course.

Btw, it's not a bad thing but I a little shocked the actual domestic numbers this weekend came in $4 million behind the actual estimates, I thought it'd be the same as last week where the numbers turned out to be higher.

So, for this third outing is it looking like another $100 million repeat?

 

[InCali]

Not true. While Star Wars will of course have the larger numbers, there would be nothing to stop people from going to see both & thus both being phenomenal successes.

This weekend alone just proved that a blockbuster of Star Wars' magnitude can exist alongside other successful movies.

So, nah, SW would get the #1 spot but GOTG 2 would be very much alive at the b.o. Assuming there isn't a change of date, of course.

Btw, it's not a bad thing but I a little shocked the actual domestic numbers this weekend came in $4 million behind the actual estimates, I thought it'd be the same as last week where the numbers turned out to be higher.

So, for this third outing is it looking like another $100 million repeat?

Another 60% hold would put it at 90M. I would think that to be in the cards. At that rate on out, we would hit 1B by the middle of Feb. I "think" the drops tend to get a little bit lower further down the road, but that's based to what I've noticed and I don't have any hard evidence of that.

I'm going to see GotG 2 unless I'm dead or dying; probably even if it's the latter.

 

[InCali]

I'd call the over under for TFA WW at about 2.2-2.3B.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Not true. While Star Wars will of course have the larger numbers, there would be nothing to stop people from going to see both & thus both being phenomenal successes.

This weekend alone just proved that a blockbuster of Star Wars' magnitude can exist alongside other successful movies.

So, nah, SW would get the #1 spot but GOTG 2 would be very much alive at the b.o. Assuming there isn't a change of date, of course.

Btw, it's not a bad thing but I a little shocked the actual domestic numbers this weekend came in $4 million behind the actual estimates, I thought it'd be the same as last week where the numbers turned out to be higher.

So, for this third outing is it looking like another $100 million repeat?

GOTG 2 is gonna get it's, if Daddy's Home can reach almost 40 million a week after SW7, then GOTG2 has nothing to worry about 3 weeks after it's release when it will have already made 75% of its money by that time.

 

[InCali]

GOTG 2 is gonna get it's, if Daddy's Home can reach almost 40 million a week after SW7, then GOTG2 has nothing to worry about 3 weeks after it's release when it will have already made 75% of its money by that time.

Each to their own I suppose. Daddy's Home.......oh well, whatever. Agree about GotG. It had such good legs during it's last run. Over 1M weekends for about 3 months. Probably wouldn't go that well with SW on the horizon, but it's got a lot of goodwill from the last movie, I'm sure it'll do fine......but I'd still like to see Ep 8 released in Dec '17.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Each to their own I suppose. Daddy's Home.......oh well, whatever. Agree about GotG. It had such good legs during it's last run. Over 1M weekends for about 3 months. Probably wouldn't go that well with SW on the horizon, but it's got a lot of goodwill from the last movie, I'm sure it'll do fine......but I'd still like to see Ep 8 released in Dec '17.

I know they went with May 2017 to coincide almost exactly to the 40th anniversary of ANH's release on May 25th, 1977.

 

[InCali]

I know they went with May 2017 to coincide almost exactly to the 40th anniversary of ANH's release on May 25th, 1977.

I guess there's some logic in there somewhere. From a Disney spokesperson: "We're releasing Episode 8 in May 2017 to commemorate the almost 40th anniversary of the release of Episode 4. Does anyone have any questions?" t:

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I guess there's some logic in there somewhere. From a Disney spokesperson: "We're releasing Episode 8 in May 2017 to commemorate the almost 40th anniversary of the release of Episode 4. Does anyone have any questions?" t:

I think it was also a move by Disney to lock up the entire month of May and part of June with their releases. GOTG 2 is likely going to rule the BO for 2-3 weeks and then Star Wars VIII is going to do it for another few weeks.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Not true. While Star Wars will of course have the larger numbers, there would be nothing to stop people from going to see both & thus both being phenomenal successes.

This weekend alone just proved that a blockbuster of Star Wars' magnitude can exist alongside other successful movies.

So, nah, SW would get the #1 spot but GOTG 2 would be very much alive at the b.o. Assuming there isn't a change of date, of course.

Btw, it's not a bad thing but I a little shocked the actual domestic numbers this weekend came in $4 million behind the actual estimates, I thought it'd be the same as last week where the numbers turned out to be higher.

So, for this third outing is it looking like another $100 million repeat?

Look at AoU drops. GotG 2 won't matter by the time VIII comes out. But I expect this from you considering your predictions for TFA.

GOTG 2 is gonna get it's, if Daddy's Home can reach almost 40 million a week after SW7, then GOTG2 has nothing to worry about 3 weeks after it's release when it will have already made 75% of its money by that time.

Which is exactly why GotG2 will be irrelevant when VIII comes out. GotG2 will be more front loaded then the first one.

 

[InCali]

Look at AoU drops. GotG 2 won't matter by the time VIII comes out. But I expect this from you considering your predictions for TFA.


Which is exactly why GotG2 will be irrelevant when VIII comes out. GotG2 will be more front loaded then the first one.

That will depend on how good it is and what is waiting in the wings. If SW is out there 3 weeks later, that would certainly cut down on its longevity. Who knows when either of them will really be released.....

 

[DarthSkywalker]

That will depend on how good it is and what is waiting in the wings. If SW is out there 3 weeks later, that would certainly cut down on its longevity. Who knows when either of them will really be released.....

This feels like TFA predictions all over again. VIII is going to be the biggest movie of 2017, unless Avatar 2 is released and somehow pulls off what the first did again. The final scene from TFA along with the obvious satisfaction has already guaranteed a huge opening. Rey is already a film icon if the merch sales are anything to go by. I am a big GotG fan, but it will not compete with VIII. It is not happening.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Look at AoU drops. GotG 2 won't matter by the time VIII comes out. But I expect this from you considering your predictions for TFA.


Which is exactly why GotG2 will be irrelevant when VIII comes out. GotG2 will be more front loaded then the first one.

It won't be irrelevant, it will still make it's money just like the new releases did this weekend. SW8 will just make much much more.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Does Avatar 2 even have a set release date? I keep seeing December 2017 being thrown around but with how secretive Cameron and 20th Century Fox have been, I wouldn't be shocked to see it pushed further back.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I have doubts that Cameron makes the December 2017 date, heck I 'd be surprised if he makes December 2018.